A5047734054- Arctic and Antarctic ice dynamics
- Climate variability and models
- Oceanographic and Atmospheric Processes
- Climate change and permafrost
- Cryospheric studies and observations
- Methane Hydrates and Related Phenomena
- Marine and coastal ecosystems
- Marine and fisheries research
- Geology and Paleoclimatology Research
- Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics
- Geological Studies and Exploration
- Marine and environmental studies
- Arctic and Russian Policy Studies
- Ocean Acidification Effects and Responses
- Food Industry and Aquatic Biology
- Marine animal studies overview
- Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
- Science, Research, and Medicine
- Ecosystem dynamics and resilience
- Hydrocarbon exploration and reservoir analysis
- Coral and Marine Ecosystems Studies
- demographic modeling and climate adaptation
- Complex Systems and Time Series Analysis
- Reservoir Engineering and Simulation Methods
- Socioeconomic Development in MENA
University of Bergen
2016-2025
Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research
2016-2025
Earth Science Institute of the Slovak Academy of Sciences
2019-2024
Norwegian Institute of Marine Research
2022
Alfred-Wegener-Institut Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung
2021
Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center
2021
Uni Research (Norway)
2018
British Antarctic Survey
2011-2016
Natural Environment Research Council
2012
Abstract The recent Arctic winter sea ice retreat is most pronounced in the Barents Sea. Using available observations of Atlantic inflow to Sea and results from a regional ice–ocean model authors assess quantify role inflowing heat anomalies on variability. interannual variability longer-term decrease area reflect inflow, both simulations. During last decade (1998–2008) reduction annual (July–June) was 218 × 103 km2, or close 50%. This has occurred concurrent with an increase observed...
Abstract Arctic winter sea ice loss is most pronounced in the Barents Sea. Here we combine observations since 1850 with climate model simulations to examine recent record low Sea extent. We find that present observed extent has been reduced less than one third of pre‐satellite mean and lower minimum all multicentury control assessed here. The current furthermore unprecedented observational appears as an uncommon trend long simulations. In a warming climate, projections from large ensemble...
Abstract During recent decades Arctic sea ice variability and retreat during winter have largely been a result of variable ocean heat transport (OHT). Here we use the Community Earth System Model (CESM) large ensemble simulation to disentangle internally externally forced variability, assess what extent future trends are driven by Atlantic transport. We find that OHT into Barents Sea has been, is at present, major source internal predictability. In warming world (RCP8.5), remains good...
Arctic near-surface air temperature warms much faster than the global average, a phenomenon known as Amplification. The change of underlying Ocean could influence climate through its interaction with sea ice, atmosphere, and ocean, but it is less well understood. Here, we show that upper 2000 m at 2.3 times mean rate within this depth range averaged over 21st century in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 585 scenario. We call “Arctic Amplification.”...
Abstract A main concern of present climate change is the Arctic sea ice cover. In wintertime, its observed variability largely carried by Barents Sea. Here we propose and evaluate a simple quantitative prognostic framework based on first principles rooted in observations to predict annual mean Sea cover, which variance winter (96%). By using ocean heat transport area, proposed appears skillful explains 50% up 2 years advance. The qualitative prediction increase versus decrease cover correct...
Abstract It is commonly understood that a potential for skillful climate prediction resides in the ocean. nevertheless remains unresolved to what extent variable ocean heat imprinted on atmosphere realize its predictive over land. Here we assess from observations whether anomalous Gulf Stream's northern extension provides predictability of northwestern European and Arctic climate. We show variations temperature high latitude North Atlantic Nordic Seas are reflected Europe winter sea ice...
Abstract The Arctic sea ice cover is currently retreating and will continue its retreat in a warming world. However, the loss of neither regionally nor seasonally uniform. Here, we present first regional seasonal assessment future CMIP6 models under low (SSP126) high (SSP585) emission scenarios, thus spanning range change. We find that loss—at predominantly limited to summer season—will SSP585 take place all regions months. lost shelf seas regardless scenario, whereas ice‐free conditions...
Abstract A potential for climate predictability is rooted in anomalous ocean heat transport and its consequent influence on the atmosphere above. Here propagation, drivers, atmospheric impact of anomalies within northernmost limb Atlantic meridional overturning circulation are assessed using a multicentury model simulation. Consistent with observation-based inferences, simulated propagate from eastern subpolar North into through Nordic seas. The dominant time scale associated variability...
Abstract Poleward ocean heat transport is a key process in the earth system. We detail and review northward Atlantic Water (AW) flow, Arctic Ocean transport, loss to atmosphere since 1900 relation sea ice cover. Our synthesis largely based on ice‐ocean model forced by reanalysis (1900–2018) corroborated comprehensive hydrographic database (1950–), AW inflow observations (1996–), other long‐term time series of extent (1900–), glacier retreat (1984–), Barents Sea hydrography (1900–). The...
Abstract Recent warming and reduced sea ice concentrations in the Atlantic sector of Arctic Ocean are main signatures ongoing “Atlantification.” The mechanisms driving trends nevertheless still debated, particularly regarding relative importance oceanic atmospheric heat fluxes. Here, budgets along water pathways through Barents Sea Fram Strait constructed to investigate Atlantification during 1993–2014. largest occur south winter edge, with ocean advection as driver. Warming marginal zone is...
Abstract The Arctic winter sea ice cover is in retreat overlaid by large internal variability. Changes to are driven exchange of heat, momentum, and freshwater within between the ocean atmosphere. Using a combination observations output from Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble, we analyze contrast present future drivers regional cover. Consistent with previous studies, find that for recent decades heat transport though Barents Sea Bering Strait major source variability Atlantic...
The Barents Sea is one of the Polar regions where current climate and ecosystem change most pronounced. Here we review state knowledge physical, chemical biological systems in Sea. Physical conditions this area are characterized by large seasonal contrasts between partial sea-ice cover winter spring versus predominantly open water summer autumn. Observations over recent decades show that surface air ocean temperatures have increased, extent has decreased, stratification weakened, chemistry...
Abstract The gradual anthropogenic‐driven retreat of Arctic sea ice is overlaid by large natural (internal) year‐to‐year variability. In winter, sea‐ice loss and variability are currently most pronounced in the Barents Sea. As winter continues a warming world, other regions will experience increased this study, we investigate to what extent future connected ocean heat transport (OHT). We analyze contrast present link between Pacific Atlantic OHT cover using simulations from seven...
The Barents Sea is a hotspot for ongoing Arctic climate change, manifested in rapid warming of the ocean and atmosphere strong decline winter sea-ice cover. These changes physical environment have large consequences marine ecosystems, including commercial fish populations. In warmer future climate, both ecological are expected to intensify. Here, we provide first comprehensive overview change projections Sea, associated physical, biogeochemical, based on models end-to-end ecosystem models....
Abstract Ocean heat content in the Norwegian Sea exhibits pronounced variability on interannual to decadal time scales. These ocean anomalies are known influence Arctic sea ice extent, marine ecosystems, and continental climate. It nevertheless remains unknown what extent such produced locally within Sea, region is more of a passive receiver formed elsewhere. A main practical challenge has been lack closed budget diagnostics. In order address this issue, regional calculated for using ECCOv4...
Abstract. Observed and future winter Arctic sea ice loss is strongest in the Barents Sea. However, anthropogenic signal of decline superimposed by pronounced internal variability that represents a large source uncertainty climate projections. A notable manifestation rapid change events (RICEs) greatly exceed trend. These RICEs are associated with displacements edge which could potentially have both local remote impacts on system. In this study we present first investigation frequency drivers...
Abstract Recent Arctic winter sea ice loss has been most pronounced in the Barents Sea. Here we explore spatial structure of Sea change as observed over last 40 years. The dominant mode concentration interannual variability corresponds to areal (explains 43% variance) and a center action northeastern where temperate Atlantic inflow meets wintertime ice. area import northerly wind also contribute this “areal-change mode”; increases with more stronger winds from north. remaining 57% variance...
To capture the austral summer to winter transition in water mass properties over southern Weddell Sea continental shelf and slope region, 19 seals were tagged with miniaturized conductivity–temperature–depth sensors February 2011. During following 8 months instruments yielded about 9000 temperature–salinity profiles from a previously undersampled area. This allows, for first time, description of seasonality warm intrusions onto shelf, as well its southward extent towards Filchner Ice Shelf....
Abstract The exchange between the open ocean and sub–ice shelf cavities is important to both water mass transformations ice melting. Here, authors use a high-resolution (500 m) numerical model investigate which degree eddies produced by frontal instability at edge of polynya are capable transporting dense high-salinity (HSSW) underneath an shelf. applied surface buoyancy flux geometry based on Ronne Ice Shelf in southern Weddell Sea, area intense wintertime sea production where flow HSSW...
Predicting fish stock variations on interannual to decadal time scales is one of the major issues in fisheries science and management. Although field marine ecological predictions still its infancy, it understood that a source multi-year predictability resides ocean. Here we show first highly skilful long-term commercially valuable Barents Sea cod stock. The 7-year are based propagation ocean temperature anomalies from subpolar North Atlantic toward Sea, strong co-variability between these...
Abstract Skillful predictions of continental climate would be great practical benefit for society and stakeholders. It nevertheless remains fundamentally unresolved to what extent is predictable, features, at time scales, by which mechanisms. Here we identify the dominant scales sources European surface air temperature (SAT) variability during cold season using a coupled reanalysis, statistical method that estimates SAT due atmospheric circulation anomalies. We find eastern Europe dominated...