A5032103234- Climate variability and models
- Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
- Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics
- Arctic and Antarctic ice dynamics
- Climate change and permafrost
- Atmospheric chemistry and aerosols
Norwegian Meteorological Institute
2021-2023
Abstract Simulation of atmosphere–ocean–ice interactions in coupled Earth modeling systems with kilometer-scale resolution is a new challenge operational numerical weather prediction. This study presents an assessment sensitivity experiments performed different sea ice products convective-scale forecasting system for the European Arctic. On are challenged by large footprint passive microwave satellite observations and issues spurious detection higher-resolution retrievals based on synthetic...
Limitations to operational weather forecasts exist in terms of availability computer (and human) resources combined with deadlines. For services it is therefore important utilize their maximize the predictive capability. This study shows how forecast quality a state-of-the-art high-resolution regional Arctic Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) system changes varying configuration choices; (1) Ensemble System (EPS), (2) higher spatial resolution, (3) atmospheric initialization by assimilation...
Stochastic parameterisations are an important way to represent uncertainty in the deterministic forecasting models underlying ensemble prediction systems. Current stochastic parameterisation approaches use random correlation patterns that unrelated atmospheric flow induce coherent perturbations parameterisations. Here we replace these by accumulated tendency fields from parameterized physical processes HARMONIE-AROME system. Our rationale is perturbing with a field reflects where most...
This article investigates two different methods for perturbing sea surface temperature (SST) in a convection permitting ensemble prediction system based on the AROME-Arctic NWP model. The are one that results perturbations purely randomly located and which targeted towards locations where SST errors thought to be largest. impact of magnitude is also tested by scaling have similar L1 norm perturbations. error estimate comparing method targeting uncertainty estimates. four high weather events...
<p>AROME-Arctic (AA) is a regional high-resolution Arctic NWP model system. We will present recent results from the operational implementation, monitoring, and research development performed at MET Norway towards further improving short-range forecast capabilities in European Arctic.</p><p>AA core basis for several important weather-related services. It source of weather forecasts on Svalbard surrounding areas (e.g. spot presented Yr.no, automated...