A major unexplored area in the field of international politics is consequences war for members system terms power lost or gained. This paper explores these shifts among neutrals, winners, and losers as a result wars, using sample 32 cases time series analysis. The findings register unexpected but systematic patterns after conflicts; while winners neutrals are affected marginally by conflict, losers' powers at first eroded. Over long run (15–20 years), though, effects loss dissipate;...

This study applies insights from the power parity and democratic peace perspectives to issue of internal political violence. These two international relations translate well domain domestic politics. Relative resources between government opposition are shown lead higher levels Democratic countries with highly competitive participatory institutions able mitigate violent conflict within their borders. Efficient governments preserve regardless institutional format. Results suggest that violence...

The political capacity of advanced societies is measured. We show that politically capable governments can mobilize vast resources from the society under stress war, but totalitarian, democratic and authoritarian regimes do not determine level performance. absolute rich nations higher than poorer ones, surprisingly, poor increase their more effectively stress. Finally, Power, constructed by combining total with governments, used to postdict accurately outcome major wars since 1900.

Nuclear deterrence may be a useful political strategy, but it not provide an effective empirical description of the behavior nations faced with prospect major war. This evaluation is based on two tests. Empirical analysis extreme crises since 1945 fails to detect substantial changes in interaction between nuclear and non-nuclear nations. Further, there no evidence that weapons have added stability relation three giants. The terror created by devastation cannot, sum, directly linked...

A major unexplored area in the field of international politics is consequences war for members system terms power lost or gained. This paper explores these shifts among neutrals, winners, and losers as a result wars, using sample 32 cases time series analysis. The findings register unexpected but systematic patterns after conflicts; while winners neutrals are affected marginally by conflict, losers' powers at first eroded. Over long run (15–20 years), though, effects loss dissipate;...

Nearly all political choices depend on trust—or a lack thereof. In world politics, successful negotiations, arms agreements, and deterrence postures trust. This paper reviews recent findings in neuroeconomics that have identified the neuroactive hormone oxytocin as key brain mechanism causes people to trust strangers. research has also physiologic behavioral effect of distrust. A neurologically informed formal model is introduced implications are drawn from it for international studies (IS)....

This paper presents a formal model that characterizes the two faces of development—persistent poverty, and industrialization rising incomes—and establishes interaction between politics economics determines which path nation travels. We demonstrate political factors affect fertility decisions so one-time disturbance compounds across generations, impacting country's entire development trajectory. Modeling strategic multiobjective policy-setting by government, we derive new concept capacity...

Abstract Generalizing the dynamics implied by power transition theory, we characterize structural conditions that lead nations to initiate conflict or choose integrate. The relationship between changes in relative power, hierarchical structures, and joint satisfaction are used identify for cooperation. Empirical tests last two centuries confirm strength robustness of this characterization. In addition, long term assessments Pax Britannica, Cold War, China's potential challenge United States...

Demographic and social scientific research suggests, with near certainty, that by the end of this century, two Asian giants, China India, will have surpassed United States on certain key indicators national power. The implications for future world politics are profound, but outcomes not predetermined. If coming power transition is managed wisely, there an opportunity continued peace among Great Powers. proceeds confrontationally, as many in past, a serious global conflict offing. There much...

This paper identifies profound contradictions within and across nuclear deterrence strategies that evolved in response to the proliferation modernization of weapons. To reconcile theory with practice, we summarize theoretical assumptions implications strategy. Informed by these discussions, develop a decision-theoretic model based on power transition theory. We explore conditions for stability link outcomes policy decisions. The conflict emerge when dissatisfied nation is threatened...

In this article, we construct a model of deterrence that specifically integrates both systemic and decision‐making variables. After contrasting its underlying structure with more standard views the relationship, demonstrate logical consistency power transition expected utility framework. The develop combines extends insights each these two approaches, thereby permitting us to theory necessary sufficient conditions major war conflict initiation. other words, for first time, are able specify,...

Abstract Research on conflict traditionally focuses its initiation, duration, and severity, but seldom consequences. Yet, demographic economic recovery from the consequences of war lasts far longer may be more devastating than waging war. Our concern is with losses post-war leading to convergence pre-war performance. To test this proposition, we choose most severe international civil wars after 1920. We find that all belligerents recover or overtake incurred in Economic assessments differ....

This inquiry explores whether domestic political and economic levels of destruction account for the ability developed nations to recover within two decades from massive losses they suffer in wake a war. We test Olson's collective goods argument that defeated war, structures distributional coalitions which are also devastated, will thereby increase competition accelerate recovery. tangentially explore impact devastation on postwar Our results show has positive rates recovery, but does not add...

The purpose of this article is to compare an expected utility rational actor model decision making with a Prospect theory psychological making. Each presented and then applied the well known case surrounding United States’ launch Operation ‘Desert Storm’ in January 1991 at outset Gulf War. Our goal not present new findings concerning origins or outcomes conflict so much as use illuminate similarities differences these two theoretical approaches. approach does assume that models are...