Is support for democracy in the United States robust enough to deter undemocratic behavior by elected politicians? We develop a model of public as democratic check and evaluate it using two empirical strategies: an original, nationally representative candidate-choice experiment which some politicians take positions that violate key principles, natural occurred during Montana’s 2017 special election U.S. House. Our research design allows us infer Americans’ willingness trade-off principles...

Is support for democracy in the United States robust enough to deter undemocratic behavior by elected politicians? We develop a model of public as democratic check and evaluate it using two empirical strategies: an original, nationally representative candidate choice experiment which some politicians take positions that violate key principles, natural occurred during Montana's 2017 special election U.S. House. Our research design allows us infer Americans' willingness trade-off principles...

Abstract Survey data are commonly cited as evidence of widespread misperceptions and misinformed beliefs. This paper shows that surveys generally fail to identify the firm, deep, steadfast, confidently held beliefs described in leading accounts. Instead, even those who report 100% certain belief falsehoods about well-studied topics like climate change, vaccine side effects, COVID-19 death toll exhibit substantial response instability over time. Similar levels stability observed among benign,...

The economic dimension has typically been considered the primary of political party competition. However, parties often rally voters on basis non-economic issues. In this article, we argue that integration into global markets and European Union (EU) constrains parties’ abilities to credibly differentiate themselves Given these constraints, voters’ awareness them, activate other issues along which compete. Using data across 49 countries between 1961 2010, study shows increased is associated...

National statistical agencies around the world publish tabular summaries based on combined employer-employee (ER-EE) data. The privacy of both individuals and business establishments that feature in these data are protected by law most countries. These currently released using a variety disclosure limitation (SDL) techniques do not reveal exact characteristics particular employers employees, but lack provable guarantees limiting inferential disclosures.

Crises and disasters give voters an opportunity to observe the incumbent’s response reward or punish them for successes failures. Yet, even when perceive events similarly, they tend attribute responsibility selectively, disproportionately crediting their party positive developments blaming opponents negative developments. We examine selective attribution during COVID-19 pandemic in United States, reporting three key findings. First, rapidly emerged first weeks of pandemic, a time which...

Abstract Surveys often ask respondents how information or events changed their attitudes. Does [information X] make you more less supportive of [policy Y]? [scandal likely to vote for [politician We show that this type question (the change format) exhibits poor measurement properties, in large part because subjects engage response substitution. When asked attitudes changed, people report the level rather than them. As an alternative, we propose counterfactual format, which asks what attitude...

Does the public oppose nuclear use? Survey experimental research varying either advantages or disadvantages of use has produced a wide range results. Yet no study examined how military and strategic moral weapons interact. We explore this interaction uncover pattern that unifies literature's seemingly disparate results: persuasive power weapons' is conditional on their disadvantages. demonstrate by independently randomizing both in (1) 2×2 factorial version an influential design (2) novel...

Abstract This article introduces a framework for evaluating methods of combatting information search in online surveys. Three empirical studies based on the suggest that is serious but manageable problem. Search frequency varies substantially according to question content, ranging from 2% 30% batteries general political knowledge questions. Deterrence works: pledge not cheat reduces by half. Detection also web browser paradata identify 70% 85% search, while 60% questions undertaken...

Abstract In the task of assessing how sudden, significant events causally affect public opinion, political pollsters often ask respondents event affected their attitudes and beliefs. We study case former President Donald Trump’s federal indictment for allegedly mishandling classified documents using two methods retrospective causal inference. The commonly used change format asks to state directly attitudes: Republicans say increased support Trump, while Democrats opposite. Like previous...

Abstract The most familiar approach to handling respondent uncertainty about survey questions, the “don’t know” (DK) response, has an inconvenient feature: it records no direct information respondents’ confidence in their answers. This article shows that DK responses contain more than meets eye. Using 161 questions from 11 surveys conducted between 1993 and 2019, analysis demonstrates percentage of respondents saying can explain half variation average among who provided answer (i.e., those...

Abstract In today’s competitive information environment, clicks are the currency of digital media landscape. Clickbait journalism attempts to entice attention with provocative and sensational headlines, but what implications when public opinion polls hook? Does use survey clickbait—news stories that make misleading claims about opinion—have for perceptions public, journalists, or polling industry? two experiments conducted in United States, we find exposure apolitical clickbait makes...

How well do voters hold politicians accountable? Although a long-standing research tradition claims that elections are effective tools for the sanctioning and selection of leaders, more recent literature argues often reward punish incumbents "irrelevant events." The empirical on this topic is characterized by conflicting findings. Drawing ideas from open science movement, showing how they can advance transparency observational research, we replicated three prominent studies irrelevant events...

Fact-checks successfully persuade people to reject misinformation, but who are exposed misinformation rarely read fact-checks. This makes increasing the demand for fact-checking a crucial, understudied aspect of fight against misinformation. We test several ways fact-checking. In our first two studies, we find little evidence that partisan reputation fact-checkers affects willingness Our third and fourth studies yield three successful classes interventions: appeals civic duty, social...

In their reply to our article, "Irrelevant Events and Voting Behavior," Fowler Montagnes reanalyze replication study of college football's effect on election outcomes. Although we agree with that the evidence supporting irrelevant events hypothesis is weaker than earlier research suggested, they overstate this case. Philosophically, disagree Montagnes's preference for (1) running a plethora tests rather focusing most theoretically motivated (2) privileging out-of-sample data over full sample...

Replication and transparency are increasingly important in bolstering the credibility of political science research, yet open tools typically designed for experiments. For observational studies, current replication practice suffers from an pathology: just as researchers can often "p-hack" their way to initial findings, it is possible "null hack" findings away through specification case search. We propose framework that consists extending original time series, independent data collection,...

How do survey respondents who look up the answers affect measures of knowledge? This paper derives "lookup bias'' in knowledge. Lookup bias has two key components: prevalence lookups and yield," i.e. average lookup's effect on measured Even when are common, lookup yield is small information scarce or inaccurate, as well use to confirm what they already know rather than fill ignorance. To test these insights, I develop an instrumental variables method for estimating apply it study politics....

In the difficult task of assessing how sudden, significant events causally affect public opinion, political pollsters often ask respondents event affected their attitudes and beliefs. We study case former President Donald Trump's federal indictment for allegedly mishandling classified documents using two methods retrospective causal inference. The commonly-used change format asks to directly state attitudes: Republicans say increased support Trump while Democrats opposite. Like previous...