Statistical decomposition of cumulative epidemiological curves into autochthonous and imported cases

• DOI: 10.30707/lib7.1.1647875326.022115
• Publication Date: 2022-03-21T21:28:05Z
• Authors: Brandon Lieberthal; Aiman Soliman; Allison M. Gardner
• Keywords: Cumulative incidence

As a pathogen spreads throughout human population network, understanding the time span between first reported infection case and establishment of local transmission relies on ability to decompose incidence into travel cases, depending whether infected individual was exposed in their location residence or elsewhere. However, most data public health agencies do not distinguish travel-associated hampering analysis critical early stages epidemic spread. We introduce an algorithm, based shape cumulative curve, estimate takes become locally established, pathogen’s recovery rates network connectivity population. This algorithm can predict onset without considering any future data, making it useful for tracking epidemics as they occur.