A5021965698- Species Distribution and Climate Change
- Plant and animal studies
- Ecology and Vegetation Dynamics Studies
- Remote Sensing in Agriculture
- Climate variability and models
- Plant Water Relations and Carbon Dynamics
- Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
- Animal Behavior and Reproduction
- Insect and Arachnid Ecology and Behavior
- Climate change impacts on agriculture
- Tree-ring climate responses
- Avian ecology and behavior
- Land Use and Ecosystem Services
- Lepidoptera: Biology and Taxonomy
- Entomological Studies and Ecology
- Ocean Waves and Remote Sensing
- Vector-borne infectious diseases
- Date Palm Research Studies
- Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics
- Physiological and biochemical adaptations
- Mosquito-borne diseases and control
- Climate Change, Adaptation, Migration
- Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research
- Hydrocarbon exploration and reservoir analysis
- Oceanographic and Atmospheric Processes
Georgetown University
2018-2025
The University of Texas at Austin
2010-2016
Numerous declines have been documented across insect groups, and the potential consequences of losses are dire. Butterflies most surveyed taxa, yet analyses limited in geographic scale or rely on data from a single monitoring program. Using records 12.6 million individual butterflies >76,000 surveys 35 programs, we characterized overall species-specific butterfly abundance trends contiguous United States. Between 2000 2020, total fell by 22% 554 recorded species. Species-level were...
Abstract Confident regional-scale climate change predictions for the Sahel are needed to support adaptation planning. State-of-the-art regional model (RCM) simulations at 90- and 30-km resolutions run analyzed along with output from five coupled atmosphere–ocean GCMs (AOGCMs) phase 5 of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) predict how summer surface temperature, precipitation, moisture likely mid- late-twenty-first century due increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations under...
Significance We address a debate that has spurred scientific and public discourse: whether conditions during autumn migration are contributing to the decline of eastern monarch butterfly population. Using multiscale modeling approach, we reveal continental-scale landscape greenness (proxy for nectar availability) amount forest cover at winter sites significantly influence arrival colony sizes. also demonstrate significant demographic connection between summer population Our results suggest...
Climate change is altering the seasonal timing of biological events across tree life. Phenological asynchrony has potential to hasten population declines and disrupt ecosystem function. However, we lack broad comparisons degree sensitivity common phenological cues multiple trophic levels. Overcoming complexity integrating data levels essential for identifying spatial locations species which mismatches are most likely occur. Here, synthesized over 15 years three estimate four interacting in...
Abstract Global climate change has been identified as a potential driver of observed insect declines, yet in many regions, there are critical data gaps that make it difficult to assess how communities responding change. Poleward regions particular interest because warming is most rapid while biodiversity sparse. Building on recent advances occupancy modeling presence‐only data, we reconstructed 50 years (1970–2019) butterfly trends response rising minimum temperatures one the under‐sampled...
Abstract Projecting species’ responses to future climate conditions is critical for anticipating conservation challenges and informing proactive policy management decisions. However, best practices choosing models projection ensembles are currently in flux. We compared including a maximum number of against trimming based on model validation. This was done within the emerging practice ensemble building using an increasingly larger global (GCMs) projections. used recently reported estimates...
Climate change poses a unique threat to migratory species as it has the potential alter environmental conditions at multiple points along species' route. The eastern population of monarch butterflies (Danaus plexippus) declined markedly over last few decades, in part due variation breeding-season climate. Here, we combined retrospective, annual-cycle model for with climate projections within spring breeding grounds Texas and across summer midwestern U.S. southern Ontario, Canada evaluate how...
Accurate models are important to predict how global climate change will continue alter plant phenology and near-term ecological forecasts can be used iteratively improve evaluate predictions that made a priori. The Ecological Forecasting Initiative's National Observatory Network (NEON) Challenge, is an open challenge the community forecast daily greenness values, measured through digital images collected by PhenoCam at NEON sites before data collected. For first round of challenge, which...
Abstract The response over West Africa to uniform warming of the Atlantic Ocean is analyzed using idealized simulations with a regional climate model. With 1 and 1.5 K, rainfall rates increase by 30%–50% most Africa. 2 K higher, coastal precipitation increases but Sahel decreases substantially. This nonlinear in focus this analysis. accompanied low-level geopotential heights Gulf Guinea large-scale meridional height gradient. leads easterly wind anomalies central Sahel. below these support...
Accurate phenology models are important to predict how global climate change will continue alter the timing of plant phenological events, such as spring greenup in deciduous broadleaf forests. While there is merit long-term predictions, investigating can near-term (1– 35 days) canopy greenness throughout allows us validate performance and understanding now. The Ecological Forecasting Initiative’s NEON Challenge, an open challenge community daily values, measured through digital images...
Rapid technological advances and growing participation from amateur naturalists have made countless images of insects in their natural habitats available on global web portals. Despite automated species identification, traits like developmental stage or health remain underexplored manually annotated, with limited focus automating these features. As a proof-of-concept, we developed computer vision model utilizing the YOLOv5 algorithm to accurately detect monarch butterfly caterpillars...
Abstract Hurricanes are becoming more frequent and intense, so understanding the consequences for biodiversity, including migratory species, has become critical. Studies suggest that migrants may avoid most of direct harm hurricanes by shifting their flight trajectories to less-impacted regions, but majority this research focused on birds. We review literature bird responses also describe other taxa likely be affected. then focus monarch butterfly (Danaus plexippus), whose fall pathway goes...
The yearly cycles in vegetation greenness are among the most important drivers of ecosystem processes. Predictive models for timing greenup and senescence crucial understanding how biological communities respond to global change. Greenup is closely tied climate also tracks variability temperature, strength this relationship varies spatio-temporally. Local studies have been useful underlying mechanisms but they insufficient explaining larger scale variabilities. Large-scale using...
Abstract Insect morphologies are strongly tied to selective forces, yet due variation in these forces and finite resources, insects must strategically invest select while deprioritizing others. Melanism body size may be one such potential trade-off that navigate two factors important for fecundity, dispersal, thermoregulation, anti-desiccation, immunity. In this work, we examined how sex environmental mediate a body-size/melanism the cold-adapted butterfly Parnassius smintheus (Lepidoptera:...
Abstract Global climate change has been identified as a major driver of observed insect declines, yet in many regions there are critical knowledge gaps for how communities responding to climate. Poleward particular interest because warming is most rapid while biodiversity data sparse. Building on recent advances occupancy modeling presence-only data, we reconstructed 50 years (1970-2019) butterfly population trends response rising minimum temperatures one the under sampled continent. Among...