ABSTRACT Accidents such as toxic spills can cause massive damage to local ecosystems and hamper the sustainable development of hazardous industries. Models that only consider regularly occurring pollution are unable truly quantify ecological risks (ecorisks) from these This work presents a methodology capable quantifying ecorisks related rare extreme events industrial accidents. We developed procedure integrates information different studies contributes characterize accidents: (1)...

We developed a stochastic model for quantitative risk assessment the Schistosoma mansoni (SM) parasite, which causes an endemic disease of public concern. The provides answers in useful format health decisions, uses data and expert opinion, can be applied to any landscape where snail Biomphalaria glabrata is main intermediate host (South Central America, Caribbean, Africa). It incorporates several realistic case‐specific features: stage‐structured parasite populations, periodic praziquantel...

Exploring the effects of meteo-oceanographic (MO) events on ships' maneuverability and safety has great potential, since most maritime accidents occur in confined waters, where speed ships is low, forces wind current have particular importance. Therefore, we put forward a methodology that will be used to qualify classify risks caused by MO factors how maneuver, dock or undock port. The objective generate important information for managing risk. validated illustrated step-by-step applying it...

Fernando de Noronha (FN) is a marine protected area off the coast of Brazil. The study risks caused by nearby ship routes new to authorities concerned with preserving FN. We identify that cause FN be potentially exposed oil spills from tankers. A coral species chosen as bioindicator ecosystem's health, which aids quantitative approaches. simulate leakage scenarios pessimistic occurrence frequencies and corals' mortality in case accident. metapopulation model integrated quantify measures...

The ship’s behaviour and manoeuverability change as depth of water decreases and/or when the ship is near a bank or shoal. This paper conducts review on shallow effects (SWE) (BE). It summarizes varying opinions from both experienced mariners hydrodynamicists about SWE factors such resistance, trim, steering, manoeuverability stopping, well BE elements suction cushion it shown that there is not common sense in bibliography. strange because successful navigation along channel to the dock...

This paper aims to review and summarize the practical aspects of meteorology oceanography for navigation, highlighting their influence on shiphandling. It is a for: gathering, in summarized way, some useful information mariners, oceanographers, coastal managers, maritime students engineers; raising important topics discussion about theme; identifying shortcomings that need more research. Aspects navigation Brazilian waters, specifically METÁREA V, are introduced as an example, bringing...

Abstract This study has developed a probabilistic epidemiological model few weeks after the World Health Organization declared COVID‐19 pandemic (based on little data available at that time). The aim was to assess relative risks for future scenarios and evaluate effectiveness of different management actions 1 year ahead. We quantified, categorized, ranked such as business usual, moderate strong mitigation. estimated that, in absence interventions, would have 100% risk explosion (i.e., more...

The environment is a complex system where humans, materials (e.g. pollutants), and ecological plants, animals, microbes) meteorological conditions interact with each other. impact of humans potentially causes significant damage to either the oil spills may pollute coastal ecosystems) or turns against themselves by favoring growth unwanted species poor sanitation increases microbial populations that cause risk large numbers falling ill). Thus, this paper presents flexible method for...

We have developed a probabilistic model to quantify the risks of COVID-19 explosion in Brazil, epicenter Latin America. By explosion, we mean an excessive number new infections that would overload public health system. made predictions from July 12th Oct 10th, 2020 for various containment strategies, including business as usual, stay at home (SAH) young and elderly, flight restrictions among regions, gradual resumption compulsory wearing masks. They indicate that: if SAH strategy were...

Most of the world's catches sharks are incidentally taken by tuna fishing gear, constituting bycatches that increase extinction risk several species shark.This not only alters ecosystem functions removing top predators, but may also hinder industry production itself due to cutoff measures set authorities.This paper focuses on female population abundance a very important bycatch species, shortfin mako shark (Isurus oxyrinchus), and proposes stochastic model for quantitative assessment under...

The ship’s behaviour and manoeuvrability change as depth of water decreases and/or when the ship is near a bank or shoal. This paper conducts review on shallow effects (SWE) (BE). It summarizes varying opinions from both experienced mariners hydrodynamicists about SWE factors such resistance, trim, steering, stopping, well BE elements suction cushion it shown that there not common sense in bibliography. strange because successful navigation along channel to dock an identifiable task whose...

Vários segmentos de indústria, especialmente a do petróleo, lidam com grandes quantidades substâncias altamente perigosas, modo que vazamentos acidentais podem causar graves danos à sociedade e meio-ambiente, bem como ameaçar o cumprimento das metas futuras da empresa responsável. Observa-se nestas empresas dificuldade decisão quanto aceitabilidade risco investir em medidas para sua redução. Neste sentido, Análise Quantitativa Riscos (AQR) permite quantificar, preventivamente, eventos...

Purpose: this research aims to introduce a novel methodology, termed Quantitative Risk Assessment for body-in-white projects, forecast the expected project completion time and total cost. This methodology is demonstrated through application real within an automotive manufacturer in Brazil. Theoretical framework: study employs established risk analysis methods (e.g., program evaluation review technique, preliminary hazard analysis, Gaussian curve, Monte Carlo simulation) alongside management...

Toxic spills that arise from maritime accidents can lead to catastrophic environmental damage animals.The numerous oil tankers travel the planet raise risk of potential affect sensitive ecosystems such as oceanic islands.To evaluate those risks, frequency estimation is an essential step.However, dealing with events low and high consequence poses a challenge, since classical statistical approaches strongly relies on data, which are scarce in this case.To overcome shortcoming, Bayesian...