Against the background of political turmoil in Middle-East, Europe faces an unprecedented surge asylum applications. In analyzing economic impact this inflow, paper draws from experience previous migrants and refugees, mindful fact that characteristics can be different refugees. short-run, additional public expenditure will provide a small positive on GDP, concentrated main destination countries Germany, Sweden Austria. Over longer-term, depending speed success integration refugees labor...

This paper analyses the impact of large and persistent emigration from Eastern European countries over past 25 years on these countries’ growth income convergence to advanced Europe. While has likely benefited migrants themselves, receiving EU as a whole, its sending economies been largely negative. The analysis suggests that labor outflows, particularly skilled workers, lowered productivity growth, pushed up wages, slowed convergence. At same time, while remittance inflows supported...

This article presents new results on the relationship between income inequality and education expansion – that is, increasing average years of schooling reducing schooling. When dynamic panel estimation techniques are used to address issues persistence endogeneity, we find a large, positive, statistically significant stable inequality, especially in emerging developing economies among older-age cohorts. The is consistent with constant or returns additional While this positive small not...

This paper presents new results on the relationship between income inequality and education expansion-that is, increasing average years of schooling reducing schooling.When dynamic panel estimation techniques are used to address issues persistence endogeneity, we find a large, positive, statistically significant stable inequality, especially in emerging developing economies among older age cohorts.The is consistent with constant or returns additional schooling.While this positive small not...

We document that past highly inflationary episodes are often characterized by a steeper inflationslack relationship.We show model-generated data from standard small Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model can replicate this empirical finding when estimated with different expectation formation processes.When inflation becomes de-anchored and expectations drift, we observe high even mildly positive output gap in response to cost-push shocks.The results imply should not use an...

After many years of rapid expansion, China's growth is slowing to more sustainable levels and rebalancing, with consumption becoming the main driver.This transition likely have negative effects on its trading partners in near term.This paper studies potential spillovers ASEAN-5 economies through trade, commodity prices, financial markets.It finds that countries closer trade linkages China (Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand) net exporters (Indonesia Malaysia) would suffer largest impact, falling...

This paper estimates a standard Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model that includes wage and price Phillip's curves with different expectation formation processes for Brazil the USA.Other than rational process, we also use limited rationality adaptive learning model.In this context, show separate inclusion of labor market in helps to anchor inflation even situation expectations, positive output gap above target.The estimation results does better job fitting data both USA.In...

After many years of rapid expansion, China's growth is slowing to more sustainable levels and rebalancing, with consumption becoming the main driver. This transition likely have negative effects on its trading partners in near term. paper studies potential spillovers ASEAN-5 economies through trade, commodity prices, financial markets. It finds that countries closer trade linkages China (Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand) net exporters (Indonesia Malaysia) would suffer largest impact, falling...

This paper presents new results on the relationship between income inequality and education expansion-that is, increasing average years of schooling reducing schooling. When dynamic panel estimation techniques are used to address issues persistence endogeneity, we find a large, positive, statistically significant stable inequality, especially in emerging developing economies among older age cohorts. The is consistent with constant or returns additional While this positive small not always...

The paper develops a small New-Keynesian FPAS model for Vietnam.The closely matches actual data from 2000-2014.We derive an optimal monetary policy rule that minimizes variablity of output, inflation, and the exchange rate.Compared to baseline model, places larger weight on output stabilization as intermediate target achieve inflation stability, while allowing greater rate flexibility.We analyze dynamics key macro variables under various shocks including external domestic demand lift-off...

We introduce two types of agent heterogeneity in a calibrated epidemiological search model. First, some agents cannot afford staying home to minimize their virus exposure, while others can. Our results show that these poor bear most the epidemic’s health costs. Moreover, we having more who do not change behavior during pandemic could lead deeper recession. Second, are heterogeneous developing symptoms. diseases with higher share asymptomatic cases, even if less lethal, worse and economic...

In this paper, we present a less-explored channel through which health insurance impacts productivity: by offering insurance, employers reduce the expected time workers spend out of work in sick days. Using data from Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (MEPS), show that worker with coverage misses on average 76.54% fewer workdays than uninsured workers, after controlling for endogeneity. We develop model embodies impact productivity. our model, reduces probability healthy gets sick, missing...

Members of the US House Representatives have proposed a major overhaul corporate tax system, so-called “destination-based border-adjusted cash-flow tax” (DBCFT). The literature on economic implications and spillovers such DBCFT is scarce. This paper aims to provide comprehensive analysis mechanics tax, its macroeconomic as well global using fully structural multi-country model. Our results suggest that short term impact reform would depend primarily how permanent agents perceive policy be....

China's transition to a new growth model continues and the impact has been felt across globe. Several trends contribute 'maturing' of economy: i) structural slowing on convergence path; ii) on-shoring deepening; iii) demand rebalancing from investment towards consumption. In short term, financial stress may lead cyclical slowdown. This paper discusses quantifies spillovers global economy these different developments. The analysis is undertaken using APDMOD G20MOD, both modules IMF's Flexible...

This paper estimates a standard Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model that includes wage and price Phillips curves with different expectation formation processes for Brazil the USA. Other than rational process, we also use limited rationality adaptative learning model. In this context, show separate inclusion of labor market in helps to anchor inflation even situation adaptive expectations, positive output gap above target. The estimation results does better job fitting data...

The paper develops a small New-Keynesian FPAS model for Vietnam. closely matches actual data from 2000-2014. We derive an optimal monetary policy rule that minimizes variability of output, inflation, and the exchange rate. Compared to baseline model, places larger weight on output stabilization as intermediate target achieve inflation stability, while allowing greater rate flexibility. analyze dynamics key macro variables under various shocks including external domestic demand lift-off U.S....

This paper introduces a simple, frequently and easily updated, close to the data epidemiological model that has been used for near-term forecast policy analysis.We provide several practical examples of how used.We explain epidemic development in UK, USA Brazil through lens.Moreover, we show our would have predicted super infectious variant, such as delta, spread argue current vaccination levels many countries are not enough curb other waves infections future.Finally, briefly discuss...