Summary Anthropogenic changes in the global climate are shifting potential ranges of many plant species. Changing climates will allow some species opportunity to expand their range, others may experience a contraction while current and future not overlap. Our capacity generalize about threat these range shifts pose diversity is limited by sources uncertainty. In this paper we summarize uncertainty for migration forecasts suggest research protocol making context

Based on a marginal value approach, we derive nonlinear expression for evolutionarily stable (ES) dispersal rates in metapopulation with global dispersal. For the general case of density‐dependent population growth, our analysis shows that individual should decrease patch capacity and—beyond certain threshold–increase density. We performed number spatially explicit, individual‐based simulation experiments to test these predictions and explore further relevance variation rate increase,...

Summary 1. Understanding the causes and consequences of dispersal remains a central topic in ecology evolution. However, mismatch exists between our empirical understanding complexity representation models. While literature is replete with examples condition dependence at emigration, movement settlement phases, models rarely incorporate realism or to this degree. Nor do often include different costs associated dispersal, which can themselves be linked one more three key phases. 2. Here, we...

Many organisms show polymorphism in dispersal distance strategies. This variation is particularly ecological relevant if it encompasses a functional separation of short- (SDD) and long-distance (LDD). It remains, however, an open question whether both parts the kernel are similarly affected by landscape related selection pressures. We implemented individual-based model to analyze evolution traits fractal landscapes that vary proportion habitat its spatial configuration. Individuals...

Summary One of the most noticeable effects anthropogenic climate change is shift in timing seasonal events towards earlier occurrence. The high degree variation species' phenological shifts has raised concerns about temporal decoupling interspecific interactions, but extent and implications this effect are largely unknown. In case plant–pollinator systems, more specialized species predicted to be particularly threatened by decoupling, since they assumed less flexible choice interaction...

Metapopulation models typically assume that suitable habitats occupied by local populations and unsuitable matrix separating them form a 'black-and-white' landscape mosaic, in which dispersal is primarily determined the spatial configuration of habitat patches. In reality, however, composition also likely to influence dispersal. Using intensive mark-recapture surveys we investigated inter-patch movements Maculinea (Phengaris) nausithous M. teleius occurring sympatrically six metapopulations....

Current theory explains accelerating invasions with increased levels of dispersal as being caused by "spatial selection." Here we argue that another selective force, strong kin competition resulting from high relatedness due to subsequent founder effects at the expanding margin, is least comparable importance for evolution during invasions. We test this hypothesis individual-based simulations a spatially structured population invading empty space. To quantify relative contribution evolution,...

Roughly 40 years after its introduction, the metapopulation concept is central to population ecology. The notion that local populations and their dynamics may be coupled by dispersal without any doubt of great importance for our understanding population‐level processes. A describes a set subpopulations linked (rare) events in dynamic equilibrium extinctions recolonizations. In large body literature has accumulated, term “metapopulation” often used very broad sense; most time it simply...

Mass-flowering crops may affect long-term population dynamics, but effects on pollinators have never been studied across several years. We monitored wild bees in oilseed rape fields 16 landscapes Germany two consecutive Effects bee densities of landscape cover the years monitoring and previous were evaluated with data from three fit empirical to a mechanistic model provide estimates for attractiveness its effect productivity comparison rest landscape, we consequences pollinator Our results...

The analysis of animal movement is a large and continuously growing field research. Detailed knowledge about strategies crucial importance for understanding eco‐evolutionary dynamics at all scales – from individuals to (meta‐)populations. This the availability detailed dispersal data motivated Nathan colleagues published their much appreciated call base ecology on more thorough mechanistic basis. So far, most models are based random walks. However, even if walk might describe real patterns...

Women can synchronize their menstrual cycles with the Moon.

Models describing the evolution of dispersal strategies have mostly focused on rates. Taking trees as a model for organisms with undirected, passive dispersal, we developed an individual-based, spatially explicit simulation tool to investigate kernel, P (r), and its resulting cumulative seed-density distribution, D (r). Simulations were run variety fractal landscapes differing in fraction suitable habitat spatial autocorrelation. Starting from uniform led increase seeds staying home cell,...

We present the results of individual-based simulation experiments on evolution dispersal rates organisms living in metapopulations. find conflicting regarding relationship between local extinction rate and evolutionarily stable (ES) depending which principal mechanism causes extinction: if is caused by environmental catastrophes eradicating populations, we observe a positive correlation ES rate; consequence stochastic dynamics fluctuations, becomes ambiguous; cases where mortality, negative...

The movement rules used by an individual determine both its survival and dispersal success. Here, we develop a simple model that links inter-patch behaviour with population dynamics in order to explore how influences not only survival, but also the population's rate of range expansion. Whereas dispersers are most likely survive when they follow nearly straight lines rapidly orient towards non-natal patch, rapid rates expansion obtained for trajectories which individuals delay biasing their...

It is widely accepted that organisms adjust their dispersal propensity to local population density, but there has been no analysis of how they should react changes in environmental conditions reduce density. We take the case delayed predator-induced (PID) aphids explore which way current may be utilized as an appropriate signal for decisions. In aphids, presence predators triggers production winged offspring later leave plant and shift center activity permanently. Using individual-based...

Bioclimate envelope models (BEMs) have often been criticized as being too simplistic due to e.g. not incorporating effects of biotic interactions or evolutionary adaptation. However, BEMs are widely applied and proven be useful. Here we investigate, under which conditions evolution dispersal, local adaptation interspecific competition may minor importance for forecasting future range shifts. Therefore use individual‐based simulations metapopulations climate change living in spatial...

Ants that get injured during predation on termites saved by their nestmates and recover inside the nest.

One of the most dramatic changes occurring on our planet is ever-increasing extensive use artificial light at night, which drastically altered environment to nocturnal animals are adapted. Such pollution has been identified as a driver in insect decline past years. species group experiencing marked declines moths, play key role food webs and ecosystem services such plant pollination. Moths can be easily monitored within illuminated area streetlight, where they typically exhibit disoriented...

Dispersal is known to play a crucial role in the formation of species' ranges. Recent studies demonstrate that dispersiveness increases rapidly during range expansion species due fitness increase for dispersers at expanding front. R. D. Holt concluded, however, emigration should decline after period invasion and hence predicted some contraction following initial phase. In this study, we evaluate hypothesis using spatially explicit individual-based model populations distributed along...