A5048503788- Climate variability and models
- Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
- Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research
- Wind and Air Flow Studies
- Hydrology and Drought Analysis
- Cryospheric studies and observations
- Flood Risk Assessment and Management
- Oceanographic and Atmospheric Processes
- Geophysics and Gravity Measurements
- Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics
- Ocean Waves and Remote Sensing
- Precipitation Measurement and Analysis
- Disaster Management and Resilience
- Hydrology and Watershed Management Studies
- Methane Hydrates and Related Phenomena
- Hydrological Forecasting Using AI
- Arctic and Antarctic ice dynamics
- COVID-19 epidemiological studies
- Tree-ring climate responses
- scientometrics and bibliometrics research
- Landslides and related hazards
- Remote Sensing and Land Use
- Vibrio bacteria research studies
- Climate Change, Adaptation, Migration
- Climate change impacts on agriculture
University of Birmingham
2016-2025
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology
2021-2024
Freie Universität Berlin
2010-2024
Environmental Earth Sciences
2015
University of Cologne
2003-2004
The variability of results from different automated methods detection and tracking extratropical cyclones is assessed in order to identify uncertainties related the choice method. Fifteen international teams applied their own algorithms same dataset—the period 1989–2009 interim European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re-Analysis (ERAInterim) data. This experiment part community project Intercomparison Mid Latitude Storm Diagnostics (IMILAST; see...
The occurrence of extreme cyclones is analysed in terms their relationship to the NAO phase and dominating environmental variables controlling intensification. These are latent energy (equivalent potential temperature 850 hPa used as an indicator), upper-air baroclinicity, horizontal divergence jet stream strength. Cyclones over North Atlantic identified tracked using a numerical algorithm, permitting detailed analysis life cycles. Extreme selected 10% most severe intensity. Investigations...
Abstract Winter storm-track activity over the Northern Hemisphere and its changes in a greenhouse gas scenario (the Special Report on Emission Scenarios A1B forcing) are computed from an ensemble of 23 single runs 16 coupled global climate models (CGCMs). All reproduce general structures observed climatological pattern under present-day forcing conditions. Ensemble mean resulting anthropogenic include increase baroclinic wave eastern North Atlantic, amounting to 5%–8% by end twenty-first...
Abstract. A climatology of cyclones with a focus on their relation to wind storm tracks in the Mediterranean region (MR) is presented. Trends frequency and storms, as well variations associated North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), East Atlantic/West Russian (EAWR) Scandinavian variability pattern (SCAND) are discussed. The study based ERA40 reanalysis dataset. Wind identified by tracking clusters adjacent grid boxes characterised extremely high local speeds. track assigned cyclone independently...
Abstract. Extreme wind speeds and related storm loss potential in Europe have been investigated using multi-model simulations from global (GCM) regional (RCM) climate models. Potential future changes due to anthropogenic change analysed these following the IPCC SRES A1B scenario. The large number of available allows an estimation robustness detected changes. All models reproduced observed spatial patterns speeds, although some displayed systematic biases. A model was applied GCM RCM...
Abstract The occurrence of wind storms in Central Europe is investigated with respect to large‐scale atmospheric flow and local speeds the investigation area. Two different methods storm identification are applied for as target region: one based on characteristics (circulation weather types, CWT) other extreme speeds. identified events examined NAO phases CWTs under which they occur. Pressure patterns, cyclone tracks assigned CWTs. Investigations ERA40 reanalysis data. It shown that about...
[1] Regional trends of wind storm occurrence in Europe are investigated using the 20th Century Reanalysis (20CR). While based on surface observations only, this dataset produces events good agreement with traditional ERA40 and NCEP reanalyses. Time series display decadal-scale variability storms since 1871, including a period enhanced activity during early century. Still, significant upward found central, northern western Europe, related to unprecedented high values storminess measures...
Winter storms of the midlatitudes are an important factor for property losses caused by natural hazards over Europe. The storm series in early 1990 and late 1999 led to enormous economic damages insured claims. Although significant trends North Atlantic/European activity have not been identified last few decades, recent studies provide evidence that under anthropogenic climate change number extreme could increase, whereas total cyclones may be slightly reduced. In this study, loss potentials...
CR Climate Research Contact the journal Facebook Twitter RSS Mailing List Subscribe to our mailing list via Mailchimp HomeLatest VolumeAbout JournalEditorsSpecials 31:59-74 (2006) - doi:10.3354/cr031059 Analysis of frequency and intensity European winter storm events from a multi-model perspective, at synoptic regional scales Gregor C. Leckebusch1,*, Brigitte Koffi2, Uwe Ulbrich1, Joaquim G. Pinto3, Thomas Spangehl1, Stefan Zacharias3 1Institute for Meteorology, Freie Universität Berlin,...
An objective index for the estimation of storm severity has been developed, validated and applied to both reanalysis data an AOGCM simulation Northeast Atlantic region. The is based on exceedance local thresholds daily maximum wind speed. Positive trends storms during historic ERA40 period (1960-2000), under anthropogenic climate change (ACC) conditions (SRES A1B A2) are identified. Additionally increase in spatial extent diagnosed, amounting up about 10 % between present day scenario...
Abstract. A simple storm loss model is applied to an ensemble of ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 GCM simulations in order estimate changes insured potentials over Europe the 21st century. Losses are computed based on daily maximum wind speed for each grid point. The calibration performed using data from ERA40-Reanalysis and German data. obtained annual losses present climate conditions (20C, three realisations) reproduce statistical features historical insurance Germany. change experiments correspond...
Changes in the frequency and intensity of cyclones associated windstorms affecting Mediterranean region simulated under enhanced Greenhouse Gas forcing conditions are investigated. The analysis is based on 7 climate model integrations performed with two coupled global models (ECHAM5 MPIOM INGV CMCC), comparing end twentieth century at least first half twenty-first century. As one has a considerably resolution atmosphere ocean, it also investigated whether change signals influenced by...
For Northern Hemisphere extra-tropical cyclone activity, the dependency of a potential anthropogenic climate change signal on identification method applied is analysed.This study investigates impact used algorithm changing signal, not robustness itself.Using one single transient AOGCM simulation as standard input for eleven state-of-the-art methods, patterns model simulated present day climatologies are found to be close those computed from re-analysis, independent applied.Although...
CR Climate Research Contact the journal Facebook Twitter RSS Mailing List Subscribe to our mailing list via Mailchimp HomeLatest VolumeAbout JournalEditorsSpecials 42:27-43 (2010) - DOI: https://doi.org/10.3354/cr00853 European storminess and associated circulation weather types: future changes deduced from a multi-model ensemble of GCM simulations Markus G. Donat1,*, Gregor C. Leckebusch1, Joaquim Pinto2, Uwe Ulbrich1 1Institute for Meteorology, Freie Universität Berlin,...
Extra-tropical cyclones in the subantarctic play a central role poleward transport of heat and moisture into Antarctica, with latter being key component mass balance Antarctic ice sheet. As climate this region undergoes substantial changes, it is anticipated that character these synoptic features will change. There are number different methods used to identify track cyclones, which can potentially lead conclusions as cyclone variability trends, mechanisms drive features. Given this, timely...
Extratropical cyclones and their associated extreme wind speeds are a major cause of vast damage large insured losses in several European countries. Reliable seasonal predictions severe extratropical winter windstorms would thus have great social economic benefits, especially the insurance sector. We analyse climatological representation assess prediction skill wintertime three multi‐member systems: ECMWF‐System3, ECMWF‐System4 Met Office‐GloSea5, based on hindcasts over 20‐year period...