The detection and attribution of long-term patterns in hydrological time series have been important research topics for decades. A significant portion the literature regards such as 'deterministic components' or 'trends' even though complexity systems does not allow easy deterministic explanations attributions. Consequently, trend estimation techniques developed to make justify statements about tendencies historical data, which are often used predict future events. Testing hypothesis on...

Abstract One hundred years from its original definition by Fuller ( ), the probabilistic concept of return period is widely used in hydrology as well other disciplines geosciences to give an indication on critical event rareness. This gains popularity, especially engineering practice for design and risk assessment, due ease use understanding; however, relies some basic assumptions that should be satisfied a correct application this statistical tool. Indeed, conventional frequency analysis...

We consider a coupled-cavity array (CCA), where one cavity interacts with two-level atom under the rotating-wave approximation. investigate excitation transport dynamics across array, which arises in atom's emission process into CCA vacuum. Due to known formation of atom-photon bound states, partial field localization and atomic population trapping general take place. study functional dependence on coupling strength these two phenomena show that threshold values beyond they become...

Abstract Hydroclimatic variables such as precipitation and temperature are often measured or simulated by climate models at coarser spatiotemporal scales than those needed for operational purposes. This has motivated more half a century of research in developing disaggregation methods that break down coarse‐scale time series into finer scales, with two primary objectives: (a) reproducing the statistical properties fine‐scale process (b) preserving original data. Existing either preserve...

During recent decades, intensive research has focused on techniques capable of generating rainfall time series at a fine scale that are (fully or partially) consistent with given coarser scale. Here we theoretically investigate the consequences ensemble statistical behaviour caused by structure simple and widely-used approach stochastic downscaling for series, discrete Multiplicative Random Cascade. We show synthetic generated these cascade models correspond to process which is...

Abstract Generating fine‐scale time series of intermittent rainfall that are fully consistent with any given coarse‐scale totals is a key and open issue in many hydrological problems. We propose stationary disaggregation method simulates dependence structure, wet/dry probability, marginal distribution at target finer (lower‐level) scale, preserving full consistency variables parent coarser (higher‐level) scale. account for the character fine scales by merging discrete stochastic...

Abstract. The need of understanding and modelling the space–time variability natural processes in hydrological sciences produced a large body literature over last thirty years. In this context, multifractal framework provides parsimonious models which can be applied to wide-scale range processes, are based on empirical detection some patterns observational data, i.e. scale invariant mechanism repeating after scale. Hence, analyses heavily rely available data series their statistical...

Abstract. An operative methodology for rainfall thresholds definition is illustrated, in order to provide at critical river section optimal flood warnings. Threshold overcoming could produce a situation sites exposed alluvial risk and trigger the prevention emergency system alert. The procedure of threshold values based both on quantitative precipitation observed hydrological response basin. Thresholds specify amount given duration that generates discharge cross are estimated by modelling...

Abstract The analysis of hydrological hazards usually relies on asymptotic results extreme value theory, which commonly deals with block maxima or peaks over threshold (POT) data series. However, quality and quantity POT records do not fulfill the basic requirements thus making its application questionable prone to high uncertainty low reliability. An alternative approach better exploit available information continuous time series nonextreme is build exact distribution (i.e., nonasymptotic...

The increasing availability of satellite Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) images is opening new opportunities for operational support to predictive maintenance and emergency actions. With the purpose investigating performances SAR characterized by different geometric resolutions post-earthquake damage detection mapping, we analyzed three image datasets (Sentinel-1, COSMO-SkyMed Spotlight, StripMap) available in Norcia (Central Italy) that were severely affected a strong seismic sequence 2016....

Abstract. Non-asymptotic (𝒩𝒜) probability distributions of block maxima (BM) have been proposed as an alternative to asymptotic BM derived by means classic extreme-value theory (EVT). Their advantage should be the inclusion moderate quantiles, well extremes, in inference procedures. This would increase amount information used and reduce uncertainty characterizing based on short samples or peaks over high thresholds. In this study, we show that 𝒩𝒜 suffer from two main drawbacks make them...

The apparent ubiquity of binary random processes in physics and many other fields has attracted considerable attention from the modeling community. However, generation sequences with prescribed autocorrelation is a challenging task owing to discrete nature marginal distributions, which makes application classical spectral techniques problematic. We show that such methods can effectively be used if we focus on parent continuous process beta distributed transition probabilities rather than...

We introduce a fast and efficient non-iterative algorithm, called BetaBit, to simulate autocorrelated binary processes describing the occurrence of natural hazards, system failures, other physical geophysical phenomena characterized by persistence, temporal clustering, low rate occurrence. BetaBit overcomes simulation constraints posed discrete nature marginal distributions using link existing between correlation coefficients this process those standard Gaussian processes. The performance is...

Abstract In any statistical investigation, we deal with the applications of probability theory to real problems, and conclusions are inferences based on observations. To obtain plausible inferences, analysis requires careful understanding underlying probabilistic model, which constrains extraction interpretation information from observational data, must be preliminarily checked under controlled conditions. However, these very first principles often neglected in favor superficial automatic...

Abstract. In order to estimate the rainfall fields over an entire basin raingauge, pointwise measurements need be interpolated and small-scale variability of can lead biases in rain rate estimation basin, above all for small or medium size mountainous urban catchments. For these reasons, several raingauges should installed different places determine spatial distribution during evolution natural phenomena selected area. technical applications, many empirical relations are used deduce heavy...

Retrieval of a distribution raindrop sizes from measured drop spectra is critically influenced by the tail distribution. The influence various tail-types studied with reference to four parameterisations fitted both large dropsonlyand entire sample disdrometer-measured spectra. Results this preliminary analysis show that Weibull shape parameter greater than oneseems fit highest percentages

As discovered by P. W. Anderson, excitations do not propagate freely in a disordered lattice, but, due to destructive interference, they localise. consequence when an atom interacts with lattice one indeed observes, non-trivial excitation exchange between and lattice. Such atomic dynamics will general be characterised also quantum information backflow, clear signature of non-Markovian dynamics. To investigate the above scenario we consider emitter, or atom, weakly coupled uniform...

Abstract. The need of understanding and modelling the space-time variability natural processes in hydrological sciences produced a large body literature over last thirty years. In this context, multifractal framework provides parsimonious models which can be applied to wide scale range processes, are based on empirical detection some patterns observational data, i.e. invariant mechanism repeating after scale. Hence, analyses heavily rely available data series their statistical processing....

Abstract. Conventional radars, used for atmospheric remote sensing, usually operate at a single polarization and frequency to estimate storm parameters such as rainfallrate water content. Because of the high variability drop size distribution conventional radars do not succeed in obtaining detailed information because they just use horizontal reflectivity. The potentiality dual-polarized weather radar is investigated, order reject ground-clutter, using differential In this light, meteorology...