A5073868774- Forecasting Techniques and Applications
- Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics
- Consumer Market Behavior and Pricing
- Technology Adoption and User Behaviour
- Big Data and Business Intelligence
- Crime, Illicit Activities, and Governance
- Supply Chain and Inventory Management
- Monetary Policy and Economic Impact
- Advanced Text Analysis Techniques
- Auction Theory and Applications
- Cybercrime and Law Enforcement Studies
- Digital Marketing and Social Media
- Complex Systems and Decision Making
- Market Dynamics and Volatility
- Energy Load and Power Forecasting
- Economic and Environmental Valuation
- Financial Risk and Volatility Modeling
- Information and Cyber Security
- Digital Platforms and Economics
- Open Source Software Innovations
- Quality Function Deployment in Product Design
- Stock Market Forecasting Methods
- ICT Impact and Policies
- Customer churn and segmentation
- Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management
Northumbria University
2018-2025
Middle East Technical University
2011-2016
Bilkent University
2006-2010
Glasgow Caledonian University
2010
TOBB University of Economics and Technology
2008-2009
Forecasting has always been at the forefront of decision making and planning. The uncertainty that surrounds future is both exciting challenging, with individuals organisations seeking to minimise risks maximise utilities. large number forecasting applications calls for a diverse set methods tackle real-life challenges. This article provides non-systematic review theory practice forecasting. We provide an overview wide range theoretical, state-of-the-art models, methods, principles,...
Abstract Decision makers and forecasters often receive advice from different sources including human experts statistical methods. This research examines, in the context of stock price forecasting, how apparent source affects attention that is paid to it when mode delivery identical for both sources. In Study 1, two groups participants were given same advised point interval forecasts. One group was told these a expert other they generated by forecasting method. The then asked adjust forecasts...
Since the 1980s, researchers and practitioners examining vulnerabilities of financial institutions to money laundering risk have offered some insights on how experts conduct anti-money assessments. A common theme in assessment literature is emphasis box-ticking rather than exercising judgment case-by-case, which has influenced our consideration whether this domain are immune cognitive biases that novices can be vulnerable during assessment. We found both were overconfident about their...
The rise in internet-based services has raised risks of data exposure. manipulation and exploitation sensitive significantly impact individuals’ resilience—the ability to protect prepare against cyber incidents. Emerging technologies seek enhance cybersecurity resilience by developing various security tools. This study aims explore the adoption tools using a qualitative research approach. Twenty-two semi-structured interviews were conducted with users mobile banking apps from Pakistan. Data...
We study and compare decision‐making behavior under the newsvendor two‐class revenue management models, in an experimental setting. observe that, both problems, decision makers deviate significantly from normative benchmarks. Furthermore, decisions are consistently higher compared to order quantities. In face of increasing demand variability, managers increase allocations; this is consistent with patterns when ratio selling prices two customer segments less than 1/2, but its exact opposite...
With the increased availability of internet, technology, and social media, incidence cyberbullying has escalated globally. Cyberbullying is becoming a significant factor that affects people’s lives, leading them to experience anxiety, depression, compulsive behaviour, more. Therefore, it worth exploring various forms cyberbullying, barriers its prevention, preventive strategies. Previous research primarily concentrated on challenges, factors, impacts for adolescents; however, rise in among...
ABSTRACT We present an experimental study of the price‐setting newsvendor problem, which extends traditional framework by allowing decision maker to determine both selling price and order quantity a given item. compare behavior under this model with two benchmark conditions where subjects have single make (price or quantity). observe that deviate from theoretical benchmarks when they are tasked decision. They also exhibit anchoring behavior, their anchor is expected demand variable initial...
Abstract A survey of 124 users externally produced financial and economic forecasts in Turkey investigated their expectations perceptions forecast quality reasons for judgmentally adjusting forecasts. Expectations mainly related to the timeliness forecasts, provision a clear justifiable rationale accuracy. Cost was less important. Forecasts were frequently adjusted when they lacked explanation, user felt could integrate knowledge into forecast, or where perceived need take responsibility...
ABSTRACT Forecasts are important components of information systems. They provide a means for knowledge sharing and thus have significant decision‐making impact. In many organizations, it is quite common forecast users to receive predictions that previously been adjusted by providers or other forecasts. Current work investigates some the factors may influence size propensity further adjustments on already‐adjusted Two studies reported focus potential effects adjustment framing (Study 1)...
Abstract Accurate forecasting is necessary to remain competitive in today's business environment. Forecast support systems are designed aid forecasters achieving high accuracy. However, studies have shown that people distrustful of automated forecasters. This has recently been dubbed “algorithm aversion.” In this study, we explore the relationship between trust and forecasts, if can be boosted order achieve a higher acceptance rate system forecasts lessen occurrence damaging adjustments....
Abstract Two experiments investigated whether individuals' forecasts of the demand for products and a stock market index assuming best or worst case scenario depend on they have seen single in isolation also second presenting an opposing view future. Normatively, scenarios should be regarded as belonging to different plausible future worlds so that judged implications one not affected when other are available. However, results provided evidence contrast effects presentation “opposite” led...
The current paper aims to examine strategic predictions (with forecast horizons greater than six months) via the empirical probability (EP) technique. This technique was proposed initially short-term tactical less three months), as set out in Pollock et al. (2005). procedure is based on hypothesis that changes logarithms of daily exchange rates follow a normal distribution over short (of 10 30 days), but longer term evaluation requires consideration cumulative parameters consistent with...