A Poisson process is a commonly used starting point for modeling stochastic variation of ecological count data around theoretical expectation. However, typically show more than implied by the distribution. Such overdispersion often accounted using models with different assumptions about how variance changes The choice these can naturally have apparent consequences statistical inference. We propose parameterization negative binomial distribution, where two parameters are introduced to allow...

How can uncertain fisheries science be linked with good governance processes, thereby increasing management legitimacy and effectiveness? Reducing the uncertainties around scientific models has long been perceived as cure of problem. There is however recognition that uncertainty in numbers will remain. A lack transparency respect to these damage credibility science. The EU Commission's proposal for a reformed Common Fisheries Policy calls more self-management fishing industry by fishers'...

Abstract Mäntyniemi, S., Kuikka, Rahikainen, M., Kell, L. T., and Kaitala, V. 2009. The value of information in fisheries management: North Sea herring as an example. – ICES Journal Marine Science, 66: 2278–2283. We take a decision theoretical approach to management, using Bayesian integrate the uncertainty about stock dynamics current status, express management objectives form utility function. new information, potentially resulting control measures, is high if expected help differentiating...

Oil transport has greatly increased in the Gulf of Finland over years, and risks an oil accident occurring have risen. Thus, effective combating strategy is needed. We developed a Bayesian Network (BN) to examine recovery efficiency optimal disposition Finnish vessels (GoF), Eastern Baltic Sea. Four alternative home harbors, five points, ten were included model find policy that would maximize efficiency. With this composition, placement seems not significant effect on The process be strongly...

The growth of maritime oil transportation in the Gulf Finland (GoF), North-Eastern Baltic Sea, increases environmental risks by increasing probability accidents. By integrating work a multidisciplinary research team and information from several sources, we have developed probabilistic risk assessment application that considers likely future development traffic area resulting pollution. This metamodel is used to compare effects two preventative management actions on tanker collision...

Eliciting stakeholders' mental models is an important participatory modeling (PM) tool for building systems knowledge, a frequent challenge in natural resource management. Therefore, constitute valuable source of information, making it imperative to document them detail, while preserving the integrity beliefs. We propose methodology, Rich Elicitation Approach (REA), which combines direct and indirect elicitation techniques meet these goals. describe approach context effects climate change on...

Participatory modelling increases the transparency of environmental planning and management processes enhances mutual understanding among different parties. We present a sequential probabilistic approach to involve stakeholders' views in formal decision support process. A continuous Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) model is used estimate population parameters for stakeholder groups, based on samples individual value judgements. The allows quantification visualization variability within groups....

Recently CHK2 was functionally linked to the p53 pathway, and mutations in these two genes seem result a similar Li–Fraumeni syndrome (LFS) or Li–Fraumeni-like (LFL) multi-cancer phenotype frequently including breast cancer. As has been found bind regulate BRCA1, product of one 2 known major susceptibility hereditary cancer, it also more directly makes suitable candidate gene for predisposition Here we have screened 79 Finnish cancer families germline alterations. Twenty-one fulfilled...

A Bayesian state–space mark–recapture model is developed to estimate the exploitation rates of fish stocks caught in mixed-stock fisheries. Expert knowledge and published results on biological parameters, reporting tags other key are incorporated into analysis through elaborations structure use informative prior probability distributions for parameters. Information related hierarchical structures parameters that represent differences between stock question stocks. Fishing mortality modelled...

Excessively high rates of fishing mortality have led to rapid declines several commercially important fish stocks. To harvest stocks sustainably, fisheries management requires accurate information about population dynamics, but the generation this information, known as stock assessment, traditionally relies on conservative and rather narrowly data-driven modelling approaches. improve available for management, there is a demand increase biological realism stock-assessment practices better...

Comprehensive problem framing that includes different perspectives is essential for holistic understanding of complex problems and as the first step in building models.We involved five stakeholders to frame management Central Baltic herring fishery.By using Bayesian belief networks (BBNs) approach, views were built into graphical influence diagrams representing variables their dependencies.The scientists concentrated on biological concerns, whereas fisher, manager, representative an...

This paper presents a sequential Bayesian framework for quantitative fisheries stock assessment that relies on wide range of fisheries-dependent and -independent data information. The presented methodology combines information from multiple analyses through the incorporation joint posterior probability density functions (pdfs) in subsequent analyses, either as informative prior pdfs or additional likelihood contributions. Different practical strategies are minimising any loss between...

In Teno River, annual sonar monitoring is used to estimate the abundance of three salmonid species: Atlantic salmon, pink salmon and sea trout. However, size distribution these species partially overlapping making recognition impossible from plain data. A Bayesian model was developed tackle this problem migration timing for species. The integrates multiple sources data including catch, video count, daily average school sizes expert knowledge. Given limited catch statistics 2021, use...

We introduce a Bayesian probability model for the estimation of size an animal population from removal data. The is based on assumption that in sampling, catchability may vary between individuals, which appears to be necessary realistic description many biological populations. Heterogeneous among individuals leads situation where mean gradually decreases as number removals increases. Under this assumption, can fitted any data, i.e., there are no limitations regarding total catch, removals,...

Abstract Mäntyniemi, S., Romakkaniemi, A., Dannewitz, J., Palm, Pakarinen, T., Pulkkinen, H., Gårdmark, and Karlsson, O. 2012. Both predation feeding opportunities may explain changes in survival of Baltic salmon post-smolts. – ICES Journal Marine Science, 69: 1574–1579. The wild hatchery-reared post-smolts (Salmo salar) the Sea has declined since 1990s. Direct observations processes affecting are, however, lacking. Here, importance food availability regulating post-smolt is analysed. Based...

We developed a Bayesian probability model for mark–recapture data. Three alternative versions of the were applied to two sets data on abundance migrating Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) smolt populations, and results then compared with those widely used maximum likelihood models (Petersen method using stratified data). Our follows basic principles stochastic presented In contrast earlier models, our can deal sparse Moreover, even weak dependencies between studied parameters possible factors...

We present a method by which the knowledge of stakeholders can be taken into account in stock assessment. The approach consists structured interview process followed quantitative modelling answers. outcome is set probability models, each describing views different stakeholders. Individual models are then merged to large model applying techniques Bayesian averaging, and this conditioned on assessment data. As result, interviewed have been weighed based how well their supported observed...

We developed a generic, age-structured, state-space stock assessment model that can be used as platform for including information elicited from stakeholders. The tracks the mean size-at-age and then uses it to explain rates of natural fishing mortality. fishery selectivity is divided two components, which makes possible active seeking fleet certain sizes fish, well gear itself. account uncertainties are not currently accounted in state-of-the-art models integrated assessments: (i) form...

We review a success story regarding Bayesian inference in fisheries management the Baltic Sea. The of salmon is currently based on results complex population dynamic model, and managers stakeholders use probabilities their discussions. also discuss technical human challenges using modeling to give practical advice public government officials suggest future areas which it can be applied. In particular, large databases science offer flexible ways hierarchical models learn dynamics parameters...

Environmental managers must make decisions about complex problems that have a high degree of uncertainty such as, which nutrient abatement measure optimally improves the condition an ecosystem. Although data and models provide information on this subject exist, their knowledge may be fragmentary difficult to interpret. We present user-friendly modelling tool integrates results different data-analyses. It can used by decision-makers for assessing probabilities scenarios achieving specific...

Abstract We developed a hierarchical Bayesian integrated life cycle model for Atlantic salmon that improves on the stock assessment approach currently used by ICES and provides some interesting insights about population dynamics of assemblage. The is applied to stocks in eastern Scotland. It assimilates 40-year (1971–2010) time-series data compiled ICES, including catches distant water fisheries at Faroes West Greenland estimates returning fish abundance. Our offers major improvements terms...