Large-n studies of conflict have produced a large number statistically significant results but little accurate guidance in terms anticipating the onset conflict. The authors argue that too much attention has been paid to finding relationships, while variables improve our ability predict civil wars. result can be distorted view what matters most Although these models may not intended predictive models, prescriptions based on are generally statistical significance, and attributes underlying...

This article investigates the nature of linkages between trade and labor rights in developing countries. Specifically, we hypothesize that a “California effect” serves to transmit superior standards from importing exporting countries, manner similar transmission environmental standards. We maintain that, all else being equal, given country are influenced not by its overall level openness, but trading partners. evaluate our hypothesis using panel 90 countries over period 1986–2002, separately...

Does membership in Intergovernmental Organizations (IGOs) affect states' human rights behavior? One might expect IGOs with a specific mandate, like the International Labour Organization or Council of Europe, to have positive effect on practices their member states. But what about other sorts IGOs, particularly those no direct connection issues? This study employs cross-national data abuses "physical integrity rights" for 137 countries over period 1982–2000 test hypothesis that can promote...

Applying the model of `recognition politics' to international relations can help explain identity-based elements conflicts that rationalist models leave out. This article uses psychological theories identity formation critically assess recent move by constructivist scholars (most notably Alexander Wendt) bring Hegelian idea `struggle for recognition' into study IR. Examining recognition theory in this way shows while insights `identity theory' developed symbolic interactionist tradition lend...

We present a visual method for assessing the predictive power of models with binary outcomes. This technique allows analyst to evaluate model fit based upon models’ ability consistently match high‐probability predictions actual occurrences event interest, and low‐probability nonoccurrences interest. Unlike existing methods logit probit such as Percent Correctly Predicted statistics, Brier scores, ROC plot, our “separation plot” has advantage producing display that is informative easy explain...

Has international cooperation become fragmented in recent decades? We focus on a specific form of potential fragmentation the system: extent to which network intergovernmental organizations (IGOs) consists distinct clusters closely cooperating states. IR scholars—including those with an interest causes and consequences membership IGOs—pay relatively little attention structure larger IGO network. At same time, scholars concerned often assume that it has increased without clear measures this...

Drawing on a panel of 136 countries over the period 1982–2004, we study tipping point version Vogel's ‘California Effect’ in context diffusion human rights practices. Because practices are often deeply embedded society's customs and political institutions, expect that high level pressure from importing is needed to bring about changes an exporting country's records. We find strong empirical support for this threshold effect; provided average respect sufficiently high, trading relationships...

Existing work has shown that membership in intergovernmental organizations (IGOs) can, among other outcomes, reduce conflict, promote democratization, and shape crisis bargaining. The traditional approach to studying how IGOs can conflict focused on the effects of dyads’ direct ties IGOs. In doing so, these analyses use fairly simple counts number which states each dyad share membership. We argue this is too narrow; we instead consider higher-order groupings within IGO network, call...

Conventional thinking proposes that naming and shaming pushes publics to oppose government policies are claimed violate human rights. We explore the extent which international organizations’ (IOs’) efforts name shame target governments can be frustrated by governments’ advance a counter-narrative. test this using survey-based experiment focuses on use of prolonged solitary confinement in US prisons. The results suggest messaging has powerful effects public opinion. These more readily...

What explains the large variation in time taken by states to ratify 1948 Genocide Convention? The costs of ratification would appear be relatively low, yet many have waited several decades before ratifying this symbolically important treaty. This study employs a “nested analysis” that combines large-n event history analysis with detailed an outlying case order explain main sources variation. Surprisingly, results our suggest do not become more likely once treaty has widely adopted others. We...

The world is experiencing a period of unprecedented demographic change. For the first time in human history, marked disparities age structures exist across globe. Around 40 percent world's population lives countries with significant numbers elderly citizens. In contrast, majority people live developing very large young as proportion total population. Yet, demographically, most states populations are aging, and many doing so quickly. This first-of-its kind systematic theoretical empirical...

Can information about adaptation costs influence citizens' willingness to support climate change mitigation? Some scholars are concerned that policy discussions on might present as a more manageable problem, and therefore crowd out mitigation efforts. On the other hand, providing may sensitize citizens these costs, thereby increasing their mitigation. To assess conflicting predictions, we fielded web-based survey experiment using sample of 2,000 US-based respondents. We presented respondents...

Abstract Conventional wisdom on alliances proposes that leaders comply with because the public opposes violating alliance commitments. However, this assumes can easily judge whether or not a particular policy violates an treaty. This article challenges assumption and develops theory elites have opportunity to shape understanding as action It shows while commitments continue important impact opinion, signals from unified significantly reduce pressure support ally by arguing treaty does create...

Abstract We often look to the examples set by other countries when thinking about how deal with problems at home. But what explains why some are more likely serve as role models than others? Are people influenced mainly that considered be particularly successful in a given policy area? Or they greater extent familiar them, or appear similar their own? In this paper, we test these hypotheses using two large (n$\ > {\rm{\ }}$2,000) survey-based experiments conducted United States. The...