A5078646655- Political Conflict and Governance
- Electoral Systems and Political Participation
- Social Policy and Reform Studies
- Populism, Right-Wing Movements
- Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI)
- Peacebuilding and International Security
- Data Analysis with R
- Social Media and Politics
- Computational and Text Analysis Methods
- Media Influence and Politics
- Scientific Computing and Data Management
- Historical and Contemporary Political Dynamics
- Employment and Welfare Studies
- Advanced Causal Inference Techniques
- Terrorism, Counterterrorism, and Political Violence
- Regional resilience and development
- demographic modeling and climate adaptation
- Post-Communist Economic and Political Transition
- Turkey's Politics and Society
- Gender, Security, and Conflict
- Big Data and Business Intelligence
- Cambodian History and Society
- Politics and Society in Latin America
- Social and Cultural Dynamics
- South Asian Studies and Conflicts
WZB Berlin Social Science Center
2021-2025
University of Gothenburg
2020-2023
University of Konstanz
2016-2023
Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München
2021
University of Bremen
2021
University of Leeds
2021
This study explores how researchers’ analytical choices affect the reliability of scientific findings. Most discussions problems in science focus on systematic biases. We broaden lens to emphasize idiosyncrasy conscious and unconscious decisions that researchers make during data analysis. coordinated 161 73 research teams observed their as they used same independently test prominent social hypothesis: greater immigration reduces support for policies among public. In this typical case...
This article introduces a novel conceptualization of democratic resilience - two-stage process where democracies avoid declines altogether or avert breakdown given that such autocratization is ongoing. Drawing on the Episodes Regime Transformation (ERT) dataset, we find have had high level to onset since 1900. Nevertheless, has become substantially weaker end Cold War. Fifty-nine episodes sustained and substantial in practices occurred 1993, leading unprecedented 36 regimes. Ominously, once...
This article analyses the state of democracy in world 2019. We demonstrate that "third wave autocratization" is accelerating and deepening. The dramatic loss eight democracies last year sets a new record rate breakdowns. Exemplifying this crisis Hungary, now EU's first ever authoritarian member state. Governmental assaults on civil society, freedom expression, media are proliferating becoming more severe. A disturbing trend quality elections also deteriorating many countries. Nevertheless,...
Protest against authoritarian rule is a well-studied phenomenon in the social sciences, but mass rallies favor of regimes have received only limited scholarly attention. While previous work has portrayed as characterized by apathy and political demobilization, we show that this partially true today. We argue autocrats mobilize their supporters selectively strategic response to threats. Rallies increase collective action costs for rivaling elites, opposition movements, bystanders because they...
This article analyses the state of democracy in 2020. The world is still more democratic than it was 1970s and 1980s, but a trend autocratization ongoing affecting 25 countries 2020, home to 34% world's population. At same time, number democratizing has dwindled by nearly half, reducing 16 countries, mere 4% global Freedom expression, deliberation, rule law elections show most substantial net declines last decade. A major change that India, formerly largest democracy, turned into an...
This article provides a new conceptualization of regime transformation that allows scholars to address democratization and autocratization as related but obverse processes. We introduce dataset captures 680 episodes (ERT) from 1900 2019 offers novel insights into change over the past 120 years. The ERT has three main advantages other approaches. First, it avoids problematic assumptions unit homogeneity constant well symmetric effects. Second, integrates key qualitative studies by treating...
Mass mobilization (MM) is an important driver of political change. While some citizens organize in favor more democratic institutions, others take to the streets support authoritarian status quo. This article introduces measures pro-democratic and pro-autocratic MM using expert assessments for 179 polities from 1900–2021. The data allow us trace patterns over time, across regions regime types. We use this new systematically analyze relationship between both types confirm findings literature...
This study investigates researcher variability in computational reproduction, an activity for which it is least expected. Eighty-five independent teams attempted numerical replication of results from original policy preferences and immigration. Reproduction were randomly grouped into a ‘transparent group’ receiving code or ‘opaque only method description no code. The transparent group mostly verified (95.7% same sign p -value cutoff), while the opaque had less success (89.3%). Second-decimal...
Following its global diffusion during the last decade, Internet was expected to become a liberation technology and threat for autocratic regimes by facilitating collective action. Recently, however, took control of filter online content. Building on literature concerning political economy repression, this article argues that regime characteristics, economic conditions, conflict in bordering states account variation filtering levels among regimes. Using OLS‐regression, analyzes determinants...
Gradual processes of democratization and autocratization have gained increased attention in the literature. Assessing such a comparative framework remains challenge, however, due to their under-conceptualization bifurcation democracy autocracy literatures. This article provides new conceptualization regime transformation as substantial sustained changes democratic institutions practices either direction. allows for studies address both related obverse processes. Using this framework,...
Abstract Right‐wing populist (RWP) movements have been on the rise in Western democracies. Outside of party politics, such regularly organize demonstrations against political elites and minority groups. At same time, civil society coalitions mobilized these movements. Yet we know little about effect counter‐demonstrations RWP protest activities. We derive competing theoretical expectations from previous work. On one hand, counter‐mobilization reduces mobilization because original movement is...
The emerging literature dealing with transnational repression has identified several strategies used by authoritarian states to control and coerce their populations abroad. This article builds on existing research investigating the domestic determinants of repression. It argues that an increase in is likely lead a subsequent because crackdowns at home drive dissent abroad incentivize state extend its repressive gaze beyond borders. To evaluate arguments, draws database approximately 1200...
Authoritarian regimes are frequent targets of international pressure in the form economic sanctions or threats thereof. Existing research shows that foreign interventions can carry several unintended consequences for politics and economy targeted countries. One side effects such is boosting support incumbent autocrats. Public demonstrations embattled leaders one aspect this dynamic. This article investigates link between domestic mobilization favor ruling It argued simultaneously increases...
This study explores how researchers’ analytical choices affect the reliability of scientific findings. Most discussions problems in science focus on systematic biases. We broaden lens to include conscious and unconscious decisions that researchers make during data analysis may lead diverging results. coordinated 161 73 research teams observed their as they used same independently test prominent social hypothesis: greater immigration reduces support for policies among public. In this typical...
"From dissent to democracy. The promise and perils of civil resistance transitions." Democratization, 28(6), pp. 1211–1212
During waves of contention, international media attention can be crucial importance for activists and protest participants. However, is a scarce resource the competition over news coverage high. While some emphasize agenda-setting power outlets argue that receiving determined by factors outside movement, others suggest dynamic relationship between activism where social movement organizations are assumed to have agency make it news. In this article, we contribute latter analyze how...
Abstract The literature on autocracies has argued that repression of protest is either a result the political environment in which occurs, or depends particular characteristics events themselves. We argue interaction both matters. Authoritarian regimes vary how they legitimize their rule, and should be particularly thin-skinned if protesters challenge basis legitimacy. Using event-level data mass mobilization between 2003 2015, we use text classification methods to extract issues from...
The Covid-19 pandemic changed contentious politics worldwide. After causing a short-lived decline in global protest activities early 2020, it has led to the emergence of variety pandemic-related protests. While previous work mostly looked at how event frequencies have over time, this paper focuses on changes issues. It applies quantitative text analysis descriptions and makes following contributions. First, traces rise fall protests globally between 2020 mid-2022, showing that, average, more...
Autocrats typically respond with coercion when citizens take to the streets demanding political reform. Sometimes, however, they tolerate mass protests and even give in protesters’ demands. While effect of on mobilization is well-studied, we know less about role concession-making. We argue that accommodating demands rarely an effective strategy demobilizing opposition movements. Authoritarian rulers are usually neither willing nor able fully address dynamic demands, can offer credible...
Democracy is under threat globally from democratically elected leaders engaging in erosion of media freedom, civil society, and the rule law. What distinguishes democracies that prevail against forces autocratization? This article breaks new ground by conceptualizing democratic resilience as a two-stage process, whereby first exhibit avoiding autocratization altogether second, breakdown given has occurred. To model this we introduce Episodes Regime Transformation (ERT) dataset tracking since...
Mass mobilization is an important driver of political change. While some citizens organize collective action in favor more democratic institutions, others take to the streets support authoritarian leaders or non-democratic forms governance. In this paper, we introduce latent measures pro-democratic and pro-autocratic mass using expert assessments for 170 polities from 1900-2020. The data allows us trace patterns over time, across regions regime types. We use new systematically analyze...
Western Europe has recently experienced increasing protest mobilisation by right-wing populist movements. Although these movements are receiving scholarly attention, systematic data on activities is limited. In this research note, original used to describe the activity of Germany's Pegida movement across space and time explore city-level determinants mobilisation. The dataset records 373 events with more than 337,000 participants in major cities between 2014 2017. documents involvement right...
This paper reports findings from a crowdsourced replication. Eighty-five independent teams attempted computational replication of results reported in an original study policy preferences and immigration by fitting the same statistical models to data. The involved experimental condition. Random assignment put participating into either transparent group that received code, or opaque receiving only methods section, rough description no code. mostly verified numerical with sign p-value threshold...
In an era of mass migration, social scientists, populist parties and movements raise concerns over the future immigration-destination societies. What impacts does this have on policy solidarity? Comparative cross-national research, relying mostly secondary data, has findings in different directions. There is a threat selective model reporting lack replicability. The heterogeneity countries obscures attempts to clearly define data-generating models. P-hacking HARKing lurk among standard...