Journal Article Expansionary Austerity? International Evidence Get access Jaime Guajardo, Guajardo 1International Monetary Fund Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar Daniel Leigh, Leigh Andrea Pescatori of the European Economic Association, Volume 12, Issue 4, 1 August 2014, Pages 949–968, https://doi.org/10.1111/jeea.12083 Published: 01 2014

This paper presents a new dataset of fiscal consolidation for 17 OECD economies during 1978-2009. We focus on discretionary changes in taxes and government spending primarily motivated by desire to reduce the budget deficit not response prospective economic conditions. To identify motivation budgetary impact policy changes, we examine contemporaneous documents, including Budgets, Budget Speeches, central bank reports, Convergence Stability Programs submitted authorities European Commission,...

We assess the extent to which greater US macroeconomic stability since mid‐1980s can be accounted for by changes in oil shocks and elasticity of gross output. estimate a DSGE model perform counterfactual simulations. nest two popular explanations Great Moderation: smaller (non‐oil\link real better monetary policy. find that played an important role stabilisation. Around half reduced volatility inflation is explained policy alone, 57% GDP growth attributed TFP shocks. Oil related effects...

This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of IMF.The expressed in this are those author(s) and do necessarily represent IMF or policy.Working Papers describe research progress by published to elicit comments further debate.This paper investigates short-term effects fiscal consolidation on economic activity OECD economies.We examine historical record, including Budget Speeches documents, identify changes policy motivated a desire reduce budget deficit responding...

Using a novel empirical approach and an extensive dataset developed by the Fiscal Affairs Department of IMF, we find no evidence any particular debt threshold above which medium-term growth prospects are dramatically compromised.Furthermore, trajectory can be as important level in understanding future prospects, since countries with high but declining appear to grow equally fast lower debt.Notwithstanding this, some that higher is associated degree output volatility.

This paper investigates the short-term effects of fiscal consolidation on economic activity in OECD economies. We examine historical record, including Budget Speeches and IMFdocuments, to identify changes policy motivated by a desire reduce budget deficit not responding prospective conditions. Using this new dataset, our estimates suggest has contractionary private domestic demand GDP. By contrast, based conventional measures stance used literature support expansionary contractions...

Using a novel empirical approach and an extensive dataset developed by the Fiscal Affairs Department of IMF, we find no evidence any particular debt threshold above which medium-term growth prospects are dramatically compromised. Furthermore, trajectory can be as important level in understanding future prospects, since countries with high but declining appear to grow equally fast lower debt. Notwithstanding this, some that higher is associated degree output volatility.

Abstract The energy transition requires substantial amounts of metals, including copper, nickel, cobalt, and lithium. Are these metals a bottleneck? We identify metal-specific demand shocks, estimate supply elasticities, study the price impact in structural scenario analysis. Prices four would reach previous historical peaks but for an unprecedented, sustained period net-zero emissions scenario, potentially derailing transition. Their production value rise nearly four-fold to USD 11 trillion...

We model oil production decisions from optimizing principles rather than assuming exogenous price shocks and show that the presence of a dominant producer leads to sizable static dynamic distortions process. Under our calibration, distortion costs U.S. around 1.6% GDP per year. In addition, distortion, reflected in inefficient fluctuations markup, generates trade‐off between stabilizing inflation aligning output with its efficient level. Our is step away discussing effects variations toward...

We assess the supply-side effects on European Union (EU) economic activity if Russian gas imports were to suddenly cease. Unlike other studies, we account for global scope of liquefied natural (LNG) market. In absence frictions, an open-economy, multi-sector general equilibrium model suggests that adverse impact EU shrinks five-fold integration with LNG market is considered. While greater provides a buffer through trade, flip side importers (such as Japan, South Korea, and Pakistan) see from...

How does market size—which increases with greater trade integration—affect the economic propagation of supply shocks? We examine this question through case a Russian gas shut-off to European Union (EU). An open-economy, multi-sector general equilibrium model suggests that adverse impact on EU shrinks five-fold if integration global liquefied natural (LNG) is considered. Greater international provides buffer for trade. The flip side other LNG importers around world see effects from higher...

The development and deployment of large language models like ChatGPT across the world requires expanding data centers that consume vast amounts electricity. Using descriptive statistics a multi-country computable general equilibrium model (IMF-ENV), we examine how AI-driven center growth affects electricity consumption, prices, carbon emissions. Our analysis national accounts reveals AI-producing sectors in U.S. have grown nearly triple rate private non-farm business sector, with firm-level...

We use a semi structural model to estimate neutral rates in the United States.Our Bayesian estimation incorporates prior information on output gap and potential (based production function approach) accounts for unconventional monetary policies at ZLB by using estimates of "shadow" policy rates.We find that our approach provides more plausible results than standard maximum likelihood unobserved variables model.Results show significant trend decline real rate over time, driven only part growth...

An exogenous oil price shock raises inflation and contracts output, similar to a negative productivity shock. In the standard New Keynesian model, however, this does not generate tradeoff between output gap volatility: under strict targeting policy, decline is exactly equal efficient contraction in response We propose an extension of model which presence dominant supplier (OPEC) leads inefficient fluctuations markup, reflecting dynamic distortion economy´s production process. As result, face...

The energy transition requires substantial amounts of metals such as copper, nickel, cobalt and lithium.Are these a key bottleneck?We identify metal-specific demand shocks, estimate supply elasticities pin down the price impact in structural scenario analysis.Metal prices would reach historical peaks for an unprecedented, sustained period net-zero emissions scenario.The total value production rise more than four-fold 2021 to 2040, rivaling crude oil production.Metals are potentially...

Download This Paper Open PDF in Browser Add to My Library Share: Permalink Using these links will ensure access this page indefinitely Copy URL DOI