A5056740795- Climate variability and models
- Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
- Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics
- Hydrology and Drought Analysis
- Nuclear Physics and Applications
- Radiation Therapy and Dosimetry
- Nuclear physics research studies
- Plant Water Relations and Carbon Dynamics
- Atmospheric chemistry and aerosols
- Climate Change Policy and Economics
- Climate Change and Health Impacts
- Climate Change Communication and Perception
- Radiation Detection and Scintillator Technologies
- Advanced Causal Inference Techniques
- demographic modeling and climate adaptation
- Computational Physics and Python Applications
- Geophysics and Gravity Measurements
- Solar Radiation and Photovoltaics
- Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research
- Ecosystem dynamics and resilience
- Medical Imaging Techniques and Applications
- Qualitative Comparative Analysis Research
- Climate change impacts on agriculture
- Oceanographic and Atmospheric Processes
UNSW Sydney
2016-2020
ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science
2016-2019
Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
2014-2019
ETH Zurich
2014
University of Cape Town
2014
Abstract. End users studying impacts and risks caused by human-induced climate change are often presented with large multi-model ensembles of projections whose composition size arbitrarily determined. An efficient versatile method that finds a subset which maintains certain key properties from the full ensemble is needed, but very little work has been done in this area. Therefore, typically make their own somewhat subjective choices commonly use equally weighted model mean as best estimate....
Abstract Changes in precipitation totals and extremes are among the most relevant consequences of climate change, but particular regional changes remain uncertain. While aggregating over larger regions reduces noise time series typically shows increases intensity extremes, it has been argued that this may not be case water-limited regions. Here we investigate long-term annual aggregated world’s humid, transitional, dry as defined by their climatological water availability. We use globally...
The annual “State of the Climate” report, published in Bulletin American Meteorological Society (BAMS), has included a supplement since 2011 composed brief analyses human influence on recent major extreme weather events. There are now several dozen events examined these supplements, but studies have all differed their data sources as well approaches to defining events, analyzing and consideration role anthropogenic emissions. This study reexamines most using single analytical approach set...
A growing field of research aims to characterise the contribution anthropogenic emissions likelihood extreme weather and climate events. These analyses can be sensitive shapes tails simulated distributions. If are found unrealistically short or long, signal emerges more less clearly, respectively, from noise possible weather. Here we compare chance daily land-surface precipitation near-surface temperature extremes generated by three Atmospheric Global Climate Models typically used for event...
In the midsummer of 2013, Central and Eastern China (CEC) was hit by an extraordinary heat event, with region experiencing warmest July–August on record. To explore how human-induced greenhouse gas emissions natural internal variability contributed to this we compare observed mean surface air temperature that simulated climate models. We find both atmospheric anthropogenic factors event. This extreme warm associated a positive high-pressure anomaly closely related stochastic behavior...
Abstract Land‐atmosphere coupling can amplify heat extremes under declining soil moisture. Here we evaluate this in 25 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models using flux tower observations over Europe and North America. We compared (2.5% of the hottest days year) evaporative fraction (EF; a measure land surface dryness) on day occurred. found negative relationship between magnitude EF both transitional regions, with temperatures occurring during driest days, similar but less...
There is a growing research interest in understanding extreme weather the context of anthropogenic climate change, posing requirement for new tailored data products. Here we introduce Climate 20th Century Plus Detection and Attribution project (C20C + D&A), an international collaboration generating product specifically intended diagnosing causes changes uncertainties that diagnosis. The runs multiple dynamical models atmosphere-land system under observed historical conditions as well...
Author(s): Angelil, O; Stone, DA; Tadross, M; Tummon, F; Wehner, Knutti, R | Abstract: Recent studies have examined the anthropogenic contribution to specific extreme weather events, such as European (2003) and Russian (2010) heat waves. While these targeted examine attributable risk of an event occurring over a specified temporal spatial domain, it is unclear how effectively their attribution statements can serve proxy for similar events at different scales. Here we test sensitivity results...
Understanding what drives changes in heatwaves is imperative for all systems impacted by extreme heat. We examine short- (13 yr) and long-term (56 heatwave frequency trends a 21‐member ensemble of global climate model (Community Earth System Model; CESM), where each member driven identical anthropogenic forcings. To estimate dominantly due to internal variability, were calculated the corresponding pre-industrial control run. find that short-term are not robust indicators change....
This paper presents two contributions for research into better understanding the role of anthropogenic warming in extreme weather. The first contribution is generation a large number multi-decadal simulations using medium-resolution atmospheric climate model, CAM5.1-1degree, under scenarios historical following protocols C20C+ Detection and Attribution project: one we have experienced (All-Hist), that might been absence human interference with system (Nat-Hist). These are specifically...
Abstract Climate simulations of future hot extremes exhibit large uncertainties regarding the magnitude projected warming. We identify two mechanisms that influence how strongly heat intensify in climate models. First, extreme temperature increases is determined by changes preceding seasonal precipitation, connected to amplified warming via soil moisture decreases. Second, there are differences models respond variability; those with a stronger response under current simulate larger extremes....
The southeastern periphery of the Tibetan Plateau (SEPTP) was hit by an extraordinarily severe drought in autumn 2009. Overall, SEPTP has been gripped a sustained for six consecutive years. To better understand physical causes these types and frequent droughts thus to improve their prediction enhance ability adapt, many research efforts have devoted disastrous SEPTP. Nonetheless, whether likelihood strength SEPTP, such as that 2009, affected anthropogenic climate change remains unknown. This...
Abstract Climate models serve as indispensable tools to investigate the effect of anthropogenic emissions on current and future climate, including extremes. However, low‐dimensional approximations climate system, they will always exhibit biases. Several attempts have been made correct for biases affect extremes prediction, predominantly focused correcting model‐simulated distribution shapes. In this study, effectiveness a recently published quantile‐based bias correction scheme, well new...
Recent studies have examined the role of anthropogenic emissions in probability extreme weather events. These examine an event aggregated over a spatial domain, but dependence on domain definition is unknown. Here we investigate this for frequency daily extremes across South Africa using climate model run under both real-world and nongreenhouse gas world scenario. Attributable changes extremely hot cold days are dominated by large-scale structures, with sharp gradients at 100 km scale...
Author(s): Lawal, KA; Abatan, AA; Angelil, O; Olaniyan, E; Olusoji, VH; Oguntunde, PG; Lamptey, B; Abiodun, BJ; Shiogama, H; Wehner, MF; Stone, DA | Abstract: We find no evidence that the delayed onset of wet season over Nigeria during April - May 2015 was made more likely by anthropogenic influences or anomalous sea surface temperatures.
Abstract. End-users studying impacts and risks caused by human-induced climate change are often presented with large multi-model ensembles of projections whose composition size arbitrarily determined. An efficient versatile method that finds a subset which maintains certain key properties from the full ensemble is needed, but very little work has been done in this area. Therefore, users typically make their own somewhat subjective choices commonly use equally-weighted model mean as best...
Since the dawn of Industrial Revolution, humans have been changing chemical composition atmosphere by burning fuels such as coal, oil, and natural gas. These gases are known to scientists “greenhouse-gases”. Greenhouse-gases vital sustain life on Earth, but rapidly increasing concentrations them can catastrophic consequences. The word ‘catastrophic’ is perfectly fitting here, because, will be demonstrated in this article, it now believed our greenhouse-gas emissions play a large role...