A5007783855- Climate variability and models
- Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
- CO2 Sequestration and Geologic Interactions
- Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics
- Atmospheric chemistry and aerosols
- Reservoir Engineering and Simulation Methods
- Geophysics and Gravity Measurements
- Carbon Dioxide Capture Technologies
- Hydraulic Fracturing and Reservoir Analysis
- Groundwater flow and contamination studies
- Plant Water Relations and Carbon Dynamics
- Drilling and Well Engineering
- Geological Modeling and Analysis
- Oceanographic and Atmospheric Processes
- Atmospheric aerosols and clouds
- Coastal and Marine Management
- Geographic Information Systems Studies
- Water Quality Monitoring and Analysis
- Integrated Energy Systems Optimization
- Statistical and Computational Modeling
- Environmental and Social Impact Assessments
- Social Acceptance of Renewable Energy
- Air Quality and Health Impacts
- Global Energy and Sustainability Research
- Vehicle emissions and performance
University of Edinburgh
2009-2019
Timber Institute
2019
UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology
2010
Abstract Understanding observed changes to the global water cycle is key predicting future climate and their impacts. While many datasets document crucial variables such as precipitation, ocean salinity, runoff, humidity, most are uncertain for determining long-term changes. In situ networks provide long time series over land, but sparse in regions, particularly tropics. Satellite reanalysis coverage, stability lacking. However, comparisons of among related can give insights into robustness...
Abstract The Northern Hemisphere monsoons are an integral component of Earth's hydrological cycle and affect the lives billions people. Observed precipitation in monsoon regions underwent substantial changes during second half twentieth century, with drying from 1950s to mid‐1980s increasing recent decades. Modeling studies suggest that anthropogenic aerosols have been a key factor driving tropical precipitation. Here we apply detection attribution methods determine whether observed driven...
Changes in precipitation characteristics directly affect society through their impacts on drought and floods, hydro-dams, urban drainage systems. Global warming increases the water holding capacity of atmosphere thus risk heavy precipitation. Here, daily records from over 700 Chinese stations 1956 to 2005 are analyzed. The results show a significant shift light eastern China. An optimal fingerprinting analysis simulations 11 climate models driven by different combinations historical...
Abstract Anthropogenic aerosols are a key driver of changes in summer monsoon precipitation the Northern Hemisphere during 20th century. Here we apply detection and attribution methods to investigate causes change West African South Asian monsoons separately identify aerosol source regions that most important for explaining observed 1920–2005. Historical simulations with GFDL‐CM3 model used derive fingerprints forcing from different regions. For Africa, remote emissions North America Europe...
Abstract Historical simulations from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) archive are used to calculate zonal-mean change in seasonal land precipitation for second half twentieth century response a range external forcings, including anthropogenic and natural forcings combined (ALL), greenhouse gas forcing, aerosol combined, forcing. These simulated patterns as fingerprints detection attribution study applied four different gridded observational datasets global 1951...
Abstract: Interpretation of geological data is based on both personal judgement and previous experience related scenarios. In combining such information geologists employ heuristics (rules thumb), are therefore subject to biases that well known in cognitive psychology common all expert judgements. Here we analyse dynamic uncertainty an evolving interpretation. Through a well-designed elicitation process show how the inclusion multiple experts influences interpretational bias. particular,...
By comparing annual and seasonal changes in precipitation over land ocean since 1950 simulated by the CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 5) climate models which natural anthropogenic forcings have been included, we find that clear global‐scale regional‐scale due to human influence are expected occurred both ocean. These include moistening northern high latitude throughout all seasons subtropical oceans during boreal winter. However show this signal of is less distinct when...
While changes in land precipitation during the last 50 years have been attributed part to human influences, results vary by season, are affected data uncertainty and do not account for over ocean. One of more physically robust responses water cycle warming is expected amplification existing patterns minus evaporation. Here, wet dry regions analyzed from satellite 1988–2010, covering We derive fingerprints change climate model simulations that separately track regions. The used driven with...
Abstract The wet‐gets‐wetter, dry‐gets‐drier paradigm (WWDD) is widely used to summarize the expected response of hydrological cycle global warming. While some studies find that changes in observations and climate models support WWDD paradigm, others it more complicated at local scales over land. This discrepancy partly explained by differences model climatologies movement wet dry regions. Here we show tracking regions as they shift tropics vary models, mean precipitation follow pattern land...
The transient climate response (TCR) quantifies the warming expected during a doubling of greenhouse gas concentrations in atmosphere. Many previous studies quantifying observed historic to gases, and with it TCR, use multimodel mean fingerprints found reasonably constrained values, which contributed IPCC estimated (>66%) range from 1° 2.5°C. Here, is shown that while fingerprint statistically more powerful than any individual model’s fingerprint, does lead overconfident results when...
Climate models predict substantial changes in seasonal precipitation the future. Anthropogenic forcing has been found to contribute observed pattern of land change over 2nd half 20th century when annual is averaged within latitude bands, was substantially larger than response simulated climate models, based on a single observational dataset. Here we investigate robustness this finding using several only datasets and look for an explanation why are significantly larger. We show discrepancy...
Public perceptions of CCS are seen as crucial in terms the deployment. Recent opposition to CO2 storage projects, such Vattenfall's Schwarze Pump project northern Germany, demonstrates that addressing public concerns is a factor securing support for scheme. Risk communication will be affected by multiple issues language used, trust communicating actors and opportunities dialogue. The literature on siting facilities also cautions many cases there mismatch between experts lay risk. This paper...
Some of the most damaging impacts climate change are a consequence changes to global water cycle. Atmospheric warming causes cycle intensify, increasing both atmospheric vapor concentrations and precipitation enhancing existing patterns minus evaporation (P − E). This relationship between temperature therefore makes understanding how has changed with temperatures in past crucial for projecting future warming. In situ observations cannot readily estimate sensitivity (dP/dT), as land affected...
Abstract. Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is a potentially important technology for the mitigation of industrial CO2 emissions. However, majority subsurface capacity in saline aquifers, which there relatively little information. Published estimates potential such formations, based on limited data, often give no indication uncertainty, despite being substantial uncertainty associated with data used to calculate estimates. Here, we test hypothesis that significant proportion estimated...
Abstract The paper describes a process for constructing risk register to be used track the evolving perception of during CO2 storage project. A project-specific is developed through structured elicitation determine initial and discussion with experts. Regular updating by experts changes in assessment as project progresses inform decision actions aim reducing an acceptable level.
Abstract. Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is a potentially important technology for the mitigation of industrial CO2 emissions, however majority subsurface capacity in geological strata which there relatively little information, so-called saline aquifers. Published estimates potential such formations, based on limited data, often give no indication uncertainty, despite being substantial uncertainty associated with data used to calculate estimates. Using only publicly available group experts...