Abstract We describe results obtained from a new implementation of Hockney's Particle-Particle Particle-Mesh (PPPM) method for evaluation Coulomb energies and forces in simulations charged particles. Rather than taking the usual approach, solving Poisson's equation by means Fourier transformation, we use an iterative Poisson solver. In molecular dynamics (MD) simulation solution previous time-step provides good starting point next solution. This reduces number iterations per to acceptable...

Abstract. This paper discusses a new method for flood risk assessment in river deltas. Flood analysis of deltas is complex, because both storm surges and discharges may cause flooding the effect upstream breaches on downstream water levels must be taken into account. presents Monte Carlo-based framework policy making, which considers waves includes effects from hydrodynamic interaction risk. It was applied to analyse societal fatality Rhine–Meuse delta.

Abstract. A non-parametric method is applied to quantify residual uncertainty in hydrologic streamflow forecasting. This acts as a post-processor on deterministic model forecasts and generates distribution. Based instance-based learning, it uses k nearest-neighbour search for similar historical hydrometeorological conditions determine intervals from set of errors, i.e. discrepancies between past forecast observation. The performance this assessed using test cases forecasting two UK rivers:...

Abstract. Oceanic–atmospheric climate modes, such as El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), are known to affect the local streamflow regime in many rivers around world. A new method is proposed incorporate mode information into well-known ensemble prediction (ESP) for seasonal forecasting. The ESP conditioned on an ENSO index two steps. First, a number of original historical traces selected based similarity between value year and at time forecast. In second step, additional generated by...

During flood events, breaching of defences along a river system can have significant reducing effect on downstream water levels and risks. This paper presents Monte Carlo based risk framework for policy decision making, which takes this retention into account. The is developed to estimate societal in terms potential numbers fatalities associated probabilities. It tested the Rhine–Meuse delta Netherlands, where floods be caused by high flows Rhine Meuse rivers and/or sea North Sea. Importance...

Abstract. ENSURF (Ensemble SURge Forecast) is a multi-model application for sea level forecast that makes use of several storm surge or circulation models and near-real time tide gauge data in the region, with following main goals: 1. providing easy access to existing forecasts, as well its performance model validation, by means an adequate visualization tool; 2. generation better forecasts level, including confidence intervals, Bayesian Model Average technique (BMA). The generates overall...

Flood forecasting, warning and emergency response are important components of flood management. Currently, the model-based prediction discharge and/or water level in a river is common practice for operational forecasting. Based on these values decisions about specific measures made within response. However, information provided decision support often restricted to pure hydrological or hydraulic aspects flood. Information weak sections defences, prone areas assets at risk protected rarely...

In the early months of 2015, destructive floods hit Malawi, causing deaths and economic losses. Flood risk assessment outcomes can be used to increase scientific-supported awareness risk. The recent in availability high resolution data such as TanDEM-X at 12m makes possible use detailed physical based flood hazard models assessment. Nonetheless scale modelling still remains an issue, which requires a compromise between level detail computational efforts. This work presents two different...

The flood risk management policy in Netherlands focuses on prevention.The current safety standards for the defences were developed 1960s response to disaster of 1953.Because has changed drastically since 1960s, government decided reconsider standards.In preparation a new set protection, cost benefit analyses and casualty assessments are carried out.The explicit consideration risks is aspect Netherlands.Casualty can be assessed from an individual point view or societal perspective.Individual...

Flood managers have traditionally used probabilistic models to assess potential flood risk for strategic planning and non-operational applications. Computational restrictions on data volumes simulation times meant that information the of flooding has not been available operational forecasting purposes. In practice, however, manager questions answer, which are completely supported by outputs traditional, deterministic systems. a collaborative approach, HR Wallingford Deltares developed...

Currently, there are two published Monte Carlo Simulations (MCS) methods for estimating design floods in Australia: The Cooperative Research Centre – Catchment Hydrology (CRC-CH) method and the Total Probability Theorem (TPT) method. CRC-CH uses variable storm durations, which makes it an attractive option compared with TPT However, suffers from a large variance flood estimates to extreme events, i.e. events low annual exceedance probabilities (AEP). This means successive MCS runs may...

Abstract. This paper discusses the new method developed to analyse flood risks in river deltas. Risk analysis of deltas is complex, because both storm surges and discharges may cause flooding since effect upstream breaches on downstream water levels must be taken into account. A Monte Carlo based risk framework for policy making was developed, which considers waves includes hydrodynamic interaction effects risks. It applied societal fatality (the probability events with more than N...

In 2011 new Hydraulic Boundary Conditions must be established for the statutory assessment of flood protection in Wadden Sea area, which is a complex tidal system northern part Netherlands. The aim to base these normative wave conditions on simulation model SWAN and probabilistic method Hydra-K, consistent with other systems as Holland Coast Zeeland Delta. Assumptions made latter water systems, like steady state wind forcing, uniform levels neglect currents, are not valid basin Sea. A...

We introduce a simple semiempirical anharmonic Kirkwood–Keating potential to model AxB1−xC-type semiconductors. The consists of the Morse strain energy and Coulomb interaction terms. optical constants pure components, AB BC, were employed fit parameters such as bond-stretching -bending force constants, dimensionless anharmonicity parameter, charges. applied finite temperature molecular-dynamics simulations on AlxGa1−xAs for which there is no lattice mismatch. results compared with...

Abstract. Oceanic-atmospheric climate modes, such as El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), are known to affect the local streamflow regime in many rivers around world. A method is proposed incorporate mode information into Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) for seasonal forecasting. The ESP conditioned on an ENSO index two steps. First, a number of original historical traces selected based similarity between value year and at time forecast. In second step, additional ensemble generated by...

We model lattice-mismatched group III-V semiconductor <TEX>$In_{x}Ga_{1-x}$</TEX> alloys with the three-parameter anharmonic Kirkwood-Keating potential, which includes realistic distortion effect by introducing anharmonicity. Although potential parameters were determined based on optical properties of binary parent InAs and GaAs, simulated dielectric functions, reflectance, Raman spectra agree excellently experimental data for any arbitrary atomic composition. For a wide range composition,...

In Indonesia land subsidence is occurring in several cities [1], and it very important to evaluate the spatial temporal patterns of deformation investigate originating processes. this work, we attempt define rates phenomena Bandung city (Western Java, Indonesia) exploiting InSAR time-series techniques.The Greater metropolitan area second largest urban Indonesia, with a population 8.6 million. The built on plain, 30km diameter surrounded by mountain range 2000m peaks exposed variety severe...

Climate change challenges our understanding of risk by modifying hazards and their interactions. Sudden increases in population rapid urbanization are changing exposure to around the globe, making impacts harder predict. RASOR will develop a platform perform multi-hazard analysis for full cycle disaster management, including targeted support critical infrastructure monitoring climate impact assessment. A scenario driven query system simulates future scenarios based on existing or assumed...