Abstract Following the “bellicist” school of state formation, external threat war is expected to spur polity formation by centralizing military capacity (Tilly, in Coercion, Capital, and European States, Oxford, Basil Blackwell, 1990). It has been argued that Russia’s invasion Ukraine could provide such an impetus for centralization EU (Kelemen & McNamara, Comparative Political Studies, 55(6):18–34, 2022). We adapt Tillian argument era mass democracy, where governments need citizen...

The Russian invasion of Ukraine is testing bonds energy solidarity in Europe as domestic and territorial conflicts can undermine unity swift political action. To examine the magnitude these divisions on demand side, we use a factorial survey experiment seven EU countries. On one hand, external security threat should push European further. other asymmetry crisis could fuel both between-country divisions, given differences dependence geopolitical context, within-country across groups, reducing...

This article presents the functionalities of R package SetMethods, aimed at performing advanced set-theoretic analyses.This includes functions for multi-method research, theory evaluation, Enhanced Standard Analysis, diagnosing impact temporal, spatial, or substantive clusterings data on results obtained via Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA), indirect calibration, and visualising QCA XY plots radar charts.Each functionality is presented in turn, conceptual idea logic behind procedure...

Based on an original protest event analysis (PEA) dataset covering 30 European countries, this paper provides three sets of results. Despite its unlikeliness due to lockdowns and social distancing measures, during COVID-19 has hardly been put a halt even if, as result the restrictions imposed by lockdown measures opportunities public collective actions, occurred at significantly lower levels compared pre-COVID-19 times, in terms number events and, above all, participants. Moreover, was...

Abstract Most studies on European solidarity (‘bonding’) during COVID‐19 lack a baseline comparison with outside states. We, therefore, cannot say whether is universal or geared towards Union (EU) insiders (‘bounding’). We thus ask ‘bounded’, that is, it relies differentiation between and outsiders. argue if existent, bounded constitutes long‐term thick basis for institutional building. To explore this ‘bonding–bounding’ dynamic, we use vignette experiment embedded into an original survey...

The robustness of qualitative comparative analysis (QCA) results features high on the agenda methodologists and practitioners. This article aims at advancing this debate several fronts. First, in line with extant literature, we take a comprehensive view arguing that decisions calibration, consistency, frequency thresholds should all be tested. Second, introduce notion “sensitivity range” as range values for any these parameters within which solution formula remains unchanged. Third, argue...

Recent research argues that external threats like war spur EU polity formation (Kelemen & McNamara, 2022). One key mechanism of this process is public support for policy responses designed by policymakers. However, the 'rally-round-the-flag' effect (Mueller, 1970), wanes over time and we decompose decrease into two elements: salience polarisation at domestic level national European policies in both soft hard security (aid sanctions). We show while can sustain innovations, about...

Abstract Measures to cope with the COVID‐19 pandemic have put a sudden halt street protests and other forms of citizen involvement in Europe. At same time, has increased need for solidarity, motivating citizens become involved on behalf people at risk vulnerable more generally. This research note empirically examines tension between demobilisation activation potential crisis. Drawing original survey data from seven Western European countries, we examine extent, forms, drivers citizens’...

We present the reaction of EU and eight member states to refugee crisis 2015/16 as a case ‘defensive integration’. In absence joint solution, were left their own devices took series national measures that varied from one country other, depending on policy heritage, combination problem pressure political which they facing. As result, debordering responses prevailed at first. Only in second stage set aiming internal external re-bordering introduced. At this stage, destination proved be most...

Nationwide lockdowns implemented by governments to confront the COVID-19 pandemic came at a high economic price. The article investigates citizens' evaluation of trade-off between public health measures and their consequences. Using vignette experiment conducted in June 2020 on 7,500 respondents seven European countries tests whether perceived threats consequences affect preferences for strict or mild lockdown measures. Findings show that citizens tend prefer protecting despite damage...

Abstract This paper focuses on the puzzle of how what could have been initially regarded as a decline in populist support became compatible with widespread conspiracy beliefs during Covid crisis. Analyzing survey data collected 16 countries June–July 2021, we explore for conspiracies is embedded attitudinal map individuals and offer three contributions to literature populism. First, employ an original scale measuring benchmarked both general conspiratorial mindset item non-conspiratorial...

This article studies transnational solidarity in the EU from a perspective that has not yet been applied literature. It asks to what extent depends on territorial cleavages (solidarity based territorial, i.e. national communities) or functional social groups cutting across nation-states). this question 2018–2023 waves of YouGov survey covering up 17 countries per wave, with particularly detailed analysis 2023 wave. The includes data various crises. A longitudinal influence and...

Using an original protest event dataset covering 30 European countries and the period 2000–2021, this paper studies nature drivers of mobilisation across three major crises that have hit Member States (the Eurozone, refugee, Covid crises). Contributing a crisis-comparative perspective to social movement research, we explore crisis in steps. First, looking at general trends throughout past decade, find overall level declined significantly, especially so after Eurozone crisis. Second,...

The Russian invasion of Ukraine challenged the European Union (EU) polity exceptionally, affecting many policy domains. We argue that external threat triggers different logics (in)security which can result in formation across policies. Two functionalist put pressure on EU to centralize policies (a) help it meet geopolitical challenge set by Russia and (b) maintain unity among member states face challenge. test this theory with a conjoint survey experiment Germany, France, Italy, Poland,...