This paper examines how oil price shocks affect the output growth of selected MENA countries that are considered either net exporters or importers this commodity, but too small to prices. That an individual country’s economic performance does not world prices is imposed on Vector Autoregressive setting as identifying restriction. The estimates suggest increases have a statistically significant and positive effect outputs Algeria, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Oman, Qatar, Syria, United Arab...

This paper assesses the effects of real depreciation on economic performance Turkey by considering quarterly data from 1987:I to 2001:III. The empirical evidence suggests that, contrary classical wisdom, depreciations are contractionary, even when external factors like world interest rates, international trade, and capital flows controlled. Moreover, results obtained analyses indicate that exchange rate inflationary.

Abstract This paper tests whether the Fisher hypothesis holds for a sample of 26 countries by assessing long run relationship between nominal interest rates and inflation taking into consideration short dynamics rates. The empirical evidence supports that there is one-to-one rate more than half under study.

This paper assesses the effect of soccer success on stock market returns for three major Turkish teams (Beşiktaş, Fenerbahçe and Galatasaray) after certain characteristics are controlled for. The empirical evidence presented here suggests that Beşiktaş's win against foreign rivals in Winner's Cup increases returns. same is not present other two big (Fenerbahçe Galatasaray). day week relationship between risk return also presented.

Empirical research of political business cycles (PBCs) may suffer from endogeneity bias when incumbent governments have discretion to call for an early election.Using instrumental variable (IV) routine on data Japan and the U.K., we find strong evidence support notion that election timing is a function economy rather than macroeconomy being driven by elections as assumed in PBC.In single-equation regressions, no are found, but Hausman tests suggest endogenous our regressions.A monetary cycle...

Abstract In the literature, there is no consensus about direction of effects inflation uncertainty on interest rates. This paper states that such a result may stem from differentiation in sources uncertainties and analyzes different types set rates for UK within an rate rule framework. Three – impulse uncertainty, structural steady‐state are derived by using time‐varying parameter model with Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity specification. It shown positively...

This paper tests the validity of Fisher hypothesis, which establishes a positive relation between interest rates and expected inflation, for G7 countries 45 developing economies. For this purpose, we estimate version GARCH specification hypothesis all included in sample. We also test augmented by including inflation uncertainty equation. The simple holds but only 23 countries. There is statistically significant relationship six 18 negative seven

This study investigates the asymmetric effects of monetary policy shocks on macroeconomic variables exchange rate, output and inflation for an emerging economy ‒ Turkey by using monthly data between 1990 2014. We employ innovative nonlinear vector autoregressive model Kilian Vigfusson (2011), which allows us to observe effect different stances (tight or loose) sizes (small large) actions. Our empirical evidence reveals that tight policy, which, in this case, is captured with a positive shock...

This paper assesses the effect of expected inflation and risk on interest rates within Fisher hypothesis framework. Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedastic models are used to estimate conditional variability as a proxy for risk. With UK quarterly data from 1958:4 1994:4, we found that both positively affect three‐month Treasury‐bill rate.

This paper assesses the effect of three major soccer teams' wins on returns Istanbul Stock Exchange (ISE). We argue that ISE increases with fanaticism supporters.

Abstract This paper estimates a forward‐looking monetary policy reaction function of the Central Bank Republic Turkey by considering period from 1990:01 to 2000:10. When spread between interbank rate and depreciation local currency is taken as tool, empirical evidence suggests that Turkish responds its foreign exchange reserves, output M2 growth not forward, current or lagged inflation. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Empirical research of political business cycles (PBCs) may suffer from endogeneity bias when incumbent governments have discretion to call for an early election. Using instrumental variable (IV) routine on data Japan and the U.K., we find strong evidence support notion that election timing is a function economy rather than macroeconomy being driven by elections as assumed in PBC. In single‐equation regressions, no are found, but Hausman tests suggest endogenous our regressions. A monetary...

This study assesses the effect of S&P500 return on Istanbul Stock Exchange within a dynamic framework. In order to capture effect, block recursive VAR model is built, allowing that affects ISE returns with its current and lag values but not vice versa. The estimates from daily data suggest affect positively up four days.