A5063055679- Ocean Acidification Effects and Responses
- Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics
- Marine and coastal ecosystems
- Climate variability and models
- Marine and fisheries research
- Oceanographic and Atmospheric Processes
- Marine Bivalve and Aquaculture Studies
- Coral and Marine Ecosystems Studies
- Climate Change Policy and Economics
- Arctic and Antarctic ice dynamics
- Methane Hydrates and Related Phenomena
- Marine Biology and Ecology Research
- Cryospheric studies and observations
- Atmospheric Ozone and Climate
- Atmospheric chemistry and aerosols
- Climate Change and Geoengineering
- Global Energy and Sustainability Research
- Coastal and Marine Management
- Geology and Paleoclimatology Research
- CO2 Sequestration and Geologic Interactions
- Climate Change and Health Impacts
- Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
- Marine and coastal plant biology
- Carbon Dioxide Capture Technologies
- Disaster Management and Resilience
Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research
2011-2025
University of Bern
2013-2025
University of Bergen
2024
Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina
2024
Climate Analytics
2024
Uber AI (United States)
2023
Miriam (Norway)
2022
ETH Zurich
2013-2020
Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey
2020
East Carolina University
2020
Abstract. The responses of carbon dioxide (CO2) and other climate variables to an emission pulse CO2 into the atmosphere are often used compute Global Warming Potential (GWP) Temperature change (GTP), characterize response timescales Earth System models, build reduced-form models. In this cycle-climate model intercomparison project, which spans full hierarchy, we quantify pulses different magnitudes injected under conditions. shows known rapid decline in first few decades followed by a...
Abstract. Changes in marine net primary productivity (PP) and export of particulate organic carbon (EP) are projected over the 21st century with four global coupled cycle-climate models. These include representations ecosystems cycle different structure complexity. All models show a decrease mean PP EP between 2 20% by 2100 relative to preindustrial conditions, for SRES A2 emission scenario. Two regimes changes consistently identified all The first chain mechanisms is dominant low-...
Abstract The authors assess the uptake, transport, and storage of oceanic anthropogenic carbon heat over period 1861–2005 in a new set coupled carbon–climate Earth system models conducted for fifth phase Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), with particular focus on Southern Ocean. Simulations show that Ocean south 30°S, occupying 30% global surface ocean area, accounts 43% ± 3% (42 5 Pg C) CO2 75% 22% (23 9 × 1022 J) uptake by historical period. Northward transport out is vigorous,...
Recent marine heat waves have caused devastating impacts on ecosystems. Substantial progress in understanding past and future changes their risks for ecosystems is needed to predict how systems, the goods services they provide, will evolve future.
Abstract. Ocean acidification from the uptake of anthropogenic carbon is simulated for industrial period and IPCC SRES emission scenarios A2 B1 with a global coupled cycle-climate model. Earlier studies identified seawater saturation state respect to aragonite, mineral phase calcium carbonate, as key variable governing impacts on corals other shell-forming organisms. Globally in scenario, water saturated by more than 300%, considered suitable coral growth, vanishes 2070 AD (CO2≈630 ppm),...
Acidification Blues The increase in the concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide threatens health ocean's ecosystems because resulting acidification ocean and decrease its carbonate saturation state. Gruber et al. (p. 220 , published online 14 June) used a regional model to project how state aragonite, form calcium that is produced by many marine organisms, will change California Current System through year 2050. sea floor along parts coast likely become exposed year-round aragonite...
The heat is on Anthropogenic climate change causing not only more episodes of historically high air temperatures but also frequent spells unusually increased ocean temperatures. Marine heatwaves, defined as periods anomalously regional surface temperatures, have become common in recent decades. Laufkötter et al. show that the frequency these events has already than 20-fold because anthropogenic global warming, making marine which typically occurred once hundreds to thousands years...
Recent shifts in the geographic distribution of marine species have been linked to preferred thermal habitats. These already posed challenges for living resource management, and there is a strong need projections how might be impacted by future changes ocean temperatures during 21st century. We modeled habitat 686 Atlantic Pacific oceans using long-term ecological survey data from North American continental shelves. models were coupled output sixteen general circulation that run under high...
Marine benefits of the Paris Agreement Keeping recent global agreements to limit temperature increases 1.5° 2°C above preindustrial levels will have across terrestrial ecosystems. But what about marine ecosystems? Cheung et al. modeled influence on two key measures fishery sustainability, catch and species turnover (see Perspective by Fulton). Limiting 1.5°C substantially improved potential decreased harvested species. These results provide further support for meeting this important goal....
Abstract Marine heatwaves (MHWs) have occurred in all ocean basins with severe negative impacts on coastal and ecosystems. The northeast Pacific 2013–2015 MHW particular received major societal concerns. Yet, our knowledge about how MHWs impact fish stocks is limited. Here, we combine outputs from a large ensemble simulation of an Earth system model to simulate responses MHWs. We show that cause biomass decrease shifts biogeography are at least four times faster bigger magnitude than the...
Abstract. Marine ecosystems are increasingly stressed by human-induced changes. ecosystem drivers that contribute to stressing – including warming, acidification, deoxygenation and perturbations biological productivity can co-occur in space time, but detecting their trends is complicated the presence of noise associated with natural variability climate system. Here we use large initial-condition ensemble simulations an Earth system model under a historical/RCP8.5 (representative...
Abstract Reducing uncertainty in the global carbon budget requires better quantification of ocean CO 2 uptake and its temporal variability. Several methodologies for reconstructing air‐sea exchange from pCO observations indicate larger decadal variability than estimated using models. We develop a new application multiple Large Ensemble Earth system models to assess these reconstructions' ability estimate spatiotemporal With our Testbed, fields 25 ensemble members each four independent are...
Abstract Future projections of potential ocean ecosystem stressors, such as acidification, warming, deoxygenation, and changes in productivity, are uncertain due to incomplete understanding fundamental processes, internal climate variability, divergent carbon emission scenarios. This complicates change impact assessments. We evaluate the relative importance these uncertainty sources stressors a function projection lead time spatial scale. Internally generated variability is dominant source...
Abstract. The Zero Emissions Commitment (ZEC) is the change in global mean temperature expected to occur following cessation of net CO2 emissions and as such a critical parameter for calculating remaining carbon budget. Model Intercomparison Project (ZECMIP) was established gain better understanding potential magnitude sign ZEC, addition processes that underlie this metric. A total 18 Earth system models both full intermediate complexity participated ZECMIP. All conducted an experiment where...
Extreme temperature events have occurred in all ocean basins the past two decades with detrimental impacts on marine biodiversity, ecosystem functions, and services. However, global of extremes fish stocks, fisheries, dependent people not been quantified. Using an integrated climate-biodiversity-fisheries-economic impact model, we project that, average, when annual high extreme occurs exclusive economic zone, 77% exploited fishes invertebrates therein will decrease biomass while maximum...
Compound MHW-OAX events, during which marine heatwaves (MHWs) co-occur with ocean acidity extreme (OAX) can have larger impacts on ecosystems than the individual extremes. Using monthly open-ocean observations over period 1982-2019, we show that globally 1.8 in 100 months (or about one out of five present-day MHW months) are compound event under a baseline, almost twice as many expected for 90th percentile exceedances if MHWs and OAX events were statistically independent. most likely...
How do we halt global warming? Reaching net zero carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions is understood to be a key milestone on the path safer planet. But how confident are that when stop emissions, also The Zero Emissions Commitment (ZEC) quantifies much warming or cooling can expect following complete cessation of anthropogenic CO emissions. To date, best estimate by Intergovernmental Panel Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report change, though with substantial uncertainty. In this article,...
Global emission reduction efforts continue to be insufficient meet the temperature goal of Paris Agreement