Abstract A greater warming trend of sea surface temperature in the tropical Indian Ocean than Pacific is a robust feature found various observational data sets. Yet this interbasin contrast not present climate models. Here we investigate impact on response to anthropogenic greenhouse gas by analyzing results from coupled model pacemaker experiments. We find that induces local negative level pressure anomalies, which extend western Pacific, strengthening zonal gradient and easterly trades...

The Atlantic Niño is characterized by sea surface warming in the equatorial Atlantic, which can trigger La Niña, cold phase of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Although observations show that has weakened approximately 30% since 1970s, its remote influence on ENSO remains strong. Here, we this apparent discrepancy due to existence two types with distinct patterns and climatic impacts, refer as central eastern Niño. Our results equal strength, a stronger tropical climate than counterpart....

Marine heatwaves (MHWs) are a type of widespread, persistent, and extreme marine warming event that can cause serious harm to the global ecology economy. This study provides systematic analysis long-term trends MHWs in Eastern China Marginal Seas (ECMS) during summer spanning from 1982 2022, occurrence mechanisms MHW events. The findings show context warming, frequency ECMS has increased across most regions, with higher rate along coast China. Areas exhibiting rapid surge duration...

Abstract Generation and development mechanisms of the Ningaloo Niño are investigated using ocean atmospheric general circulation model experiments. Consistent with previous studies, northerly wind anomalies off West Australian coast critical in generating warm sea surface temperature (SST) Niño, which induce SST warming through reduced turbulent heat loss toward atmosphere (by decreasing speed), enhanced Leeuwin Current transport, weakened coastal upwelling. Our results further reveal that...

Abstract The Ningaloo Niño refers to the evident interannual variability of sea surface temperature anomalies in southeast Indian Ocean (SEIO), which can be caused by Pacific La Niña. Through performing atmospheric general circulation model experiments, this study shows that also actively impact on tropical Pacific. associated with induces negative level pressure extending from SEIO Maritime Continent, strengthens western trade winds, and thus cools central In turn, cooling generate cyclonic...

Abstract Observations show that decadal (10–20 yr) to interdecadal (>20 variability of the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) sea surface temperature (SST) closely follows Pacific until 1960s. Since then, TIO SST exhibits a persistent warming trend, whereas shows large-amplitude fluctuations associated with oscillation (IPO), and is out phase after around 1980. Here causes for changing behavior are explored, by analyzing multiple observational datasets recently available large-ensemble...

Abstract La Niña years tend to provide increased Indian summer monsoon (ISM) rainfall. However, observations show 6–8% reduction in ISM rainfall during post‐1980 Niñas relative pre‐1980. Using a suite of atmospheric general circulation model experiments, we replicate this observed phenomenon and attribute it combination weakening events themselves plus strongly warming tropical Ocean. We demonstrate that half the can be attributed changes spatial pattern intensity within Pacific Warmer...

Abstract In this study, the Indian Ocean upper-ocean variability associated with subtropical dipole (SIOD) is investigated. We find that SIOD a prominent southwest–northeast sea level anomaly (SLA) over western-central south Ocean, north pole located in Seychelles–Chagos thermocline ridge (SCTR) and at southeast of Madagascar, which different from distribution surface temperature (SSTA). While depth heat content anomalies mirror SLAs, air–sea CO2 flux are controlled by SSTA. SCTR region,...

Air–sea coupling processes over the north Indian Ocean associated with summer monsoon intraseasonal oscillation (MISO) are investigated. Observations show that MISO convection anomalies affect underlying sea surface temperature (SST) through changes in shortwave radiation and latent heat flux. In turn, SST may also precipitation tendency ( dP/ dt). particular, warm (cold) can contribute to increasing (decreasing) rate enhanced (suppressed) convergence boundary layer pressure gradients. These...

Abstract Low-lying island nations like Indonesia are vulnerable to sea level Height EXtremes (HEXs). When compounded by marine heatwaves, HEXs have larger ecological and societal impact. Here we combine observations with model simulations, investigate the Compound Height-Heat Extremes (CHHEXs) along Indian Ocean coast of in recent decades. We find that anthropogenic rise combined decadal climate variability causes increased occurrence during 2010–2017. Both CHHEXs driven equatorial westerly...

Abstract Sea surface temperature (SST) observations in the North Atlantic since 1870 reveal a region of enhanced warming off northeastern coast America, and cooling to south Greenland. It has been hypothesized that these adjacent SST trends are result long‐term changes buoyancy‐driven ocean circulation—a slowdown Meridional Overturning Circulation. The impacts historical on atmosphere estimated using idealized atmospheric general circulation model experiments which global is exposed modern...

Abstract Coupled general circulation model (GCM) biases in the tropical Pacific are substantial, including a westward extended cold sea surface temperature (SST) bias linked to El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Investigation of internal climate variability at centennial timescales using multicentury control integrations 27 GCMs suggests that Centennial emerges with too strong ENSO equatorial Pacific, SST variability. Using stochastic (Hasselmann type), we diagnose such variance western...

Abstract It has been suggested that the intraseasonal sea surface temperature (SST) variability in tropical oceans can be amplified by diurnal cycle of SST (dSST). Here, analyzing global moored buoy array for first time, we find is indeed dSST most oceans, especially Indo‐Pacific warm pool, but weakened equatorial cold tongues Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. Such a divergent response associated with difference atmosphere‐ocean interaction processes over these two regions. In pool region,...

Abstract The Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO) is the dominant intraseasonal variability of tropical troposphere. Many MJOs originate from Indian Ocean and propagate into Pacific via Maritime Continent (MC). However, 30–50% MJO stalls over MC, while its cause remains unclear. Here, we find that a new interbasin coupled phenomenon dubbed “Warm Pool Dipole” (WPD), which associated with out‐of‐phase sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) in southeast western central Pacific, may play an...

Abstract Coastal flooding induced by sea surface high extreme (HEX) events is an increasing risk to human society and infrastructure as both urban growth in coastal areas anthropogenic level rise continue, especially for island nations like Indonesia. This paper investigates the role of atmospheric intraseasonal oscillations (ISOs), which are dominated Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO), forcing HEXs on coasts Indonesia bordering Indian Ocean. We use satellite altimetry data from 1993 2021 tide...

Abstract Observational analyses and ocean general circulation model experiments were performed to understand the influence of oceanic processes on warm sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) prior convection initiation boreal winter intraseasonal oscillations (ISOs), including Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO), in tropical Indian Ocean. We found 39 strong ISOs that passed over Ocean Warm Pool (WP) region during November–April season 2001–2012 period. Seventeen them (44%) initiated...

Abstract The South Equatorial Current (SEC) in the south Indian Ocean (SIO) contributes to mass and heat exchanges among Pacific, Indian, Atlantic Oceans. By analyzing satellite situ observations, this study examines seasonal structure interannual variability of SEC. SEC is mainly part Seychelles‐Chagos thermocline ridge (SCTR) circulation during December April, composed internal SCTR intrusive Indonesian Throughflow May November. thus presents straight meandering routes these two periods,...

Abstract The latitudinal gradient of outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) over Africa is a skillful and physically based predictor seasonal Atlantic hurricane activity. African OLR observed to have strengthened during the satellite era, as predicted by state‐of‐the‐art global climate models (GCMs) in response greenhouse gas forcing. Prior era U.S. European clean air acts, weakened due aerosol forcing opposite sign. GCMs predict continuation increasing Assuming steady linear relationship between...

Abstract Tropical cyclogenesis in the Atlantic is influenced by environmental parameters including vertical wind shear, which sensitive to forcing from tropical Pacific. Reliable projections of response such radiative are key understanding future hurricanes and coastal risk. One least certain aspects climate warming eastern Pacific Ocean. Using model experiments isolating controlling for other factors El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO), changes potential end this century ∼20% lower with...

Abstract The subtropical Indian Ocean dipole (SIOD) and Ningaloo Niño are the two dominant modes of interannual climate variability in south Ocean. Observations show that SIOD has been weakening recent decades, while strengthening. In this study, we investigate causes for such changes by analyzing model experiments using NCAR Community Earth System Model, version 1 (CESM1). Ensemble-mean results from CESM1 large-ensemble (CESM1-LE) external forcing negligible amplitudes Niño, suggesting a...

The Atlantic Niño is characterized by sea surface warming in the equatorial Atlantic, which can trigger La Niña - cold phase of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Although observations show that has weakened approximately 30% since 1970s, its remote influence on ENSO remains strong. Here we this apparent discrepancy due to existence two types with distinct patterns and climatic impacts, refer as central eastern Niño. Our results equal strength, a...