A5015849102- Climate variability and models
- Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
- Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics
- Precipitation Measurement and Analysis
- Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research
- Hydrology and Drought Analysis
- Atmospheric Ozone and Climate
- Oceanographic and Atmospheric Processes
- Climate Change Policy and Economics
- Atmospheric chemistry and aerosols
- Geophysics and Gravity Measurements
- Hydrology and Watershed Management Studies
- Cryospheric studies and observations
- Climate change impacts on agriculture
- Marine and coastal ecosystems
- Plant Water Relations and Carbon Dynamics
- Medical Imaging Techniques and Applications
- Flood Risk Assessment and Management
- Ocean Waves and Remote Sensing
- Radiomics and Machine Learning in Medical Imaging
- COVID-19 epidemiological studies
- Climate Change and Geoengineering
- Arctic and Antarctic ice dynamics
- demographic modeling and climate adaptation
- COVID-19 Impact on Reproduction
NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research
2016-2025
Cornell University
2020-2025
U.S. National Science Foundation
2025
NSF NCAR Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory
2016-2024
ETH Zurich
2020-2022
University of Colorado System
2018
University of Colorado Boulder
2016
Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences
2016
University of Washington
2008-2014
University of Miami
2008
Understanding changes in precipitation variability is essential for a complete explanation of the hydrologic cycle's response to warming and its impacts. While mean extreme have been studied intensively, has received less attention, despite theoretical practical importance. Here, we show that most climate models increases over majority global land area (66% robust increase seasonal-mean precipitation). Comparing recent decades RCP8.5 projections end 21st century, find global, multi-model...
Abstract The Community Earth System Model Version 2 (CESM2) has an equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) of 5.3 K. ECS is emergent property both feedbacks and aerosol forcing. increase in over the previous version (CESM1) result cloud feedbacks. Interim versions CESM2 had a land model that damped ECS. Part change results from evolving configuration to reproduce long‐term trend global regional surface temperature twentieth century response forcings. Changes made reduce aerosols also impacted...
Abstract Changes in the frequency and intensity of rainfall are an important potential impact climate change. Two modes change, a shift increase, applied to simulations global warming with models from phase 5 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The response CO2 doubling multimodel mean CMIP5 daily is characterized by increase 1% K−1 at all rain rates higher 3.3% K−1. In addition these some also show substantial highest called extreme mode warming. models, this can be shown...
Models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) robustly predict that rate increase in global-mean precipitation with surface temperature is much less than water vapor. The goal this paper to explain detail mechanisms by which constrained radiative cooling. Changes clear-sky atmospheric cooling resulting changes and humidity global warming simulations are good agreement multimodel, projected GCMs (~1.1 W m−2 K−1). In an atmosphere fixed specific humidity, top (TOA)...
How extreme precipitation is defined affects the conclusions drawn about way it changes with warming
Abstract. The sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) constitutes the latest update on expected future climate change based a new generation of models. To extract reliable estimates warming and related uncertainties from these models, spread in their projections is often translated into probabilistic such as mean likely range. Here, we use model weighting approach, which accounts for models' historical performance several diagnostics well interdependence within CMIP6 ensemble, to...
Abstract The large socioeconomic costs of droughts make them a crucial target for impact assessments climate change scenarios. Using multiple drought metrics and set simulations with the Community Earth System Model targeting 1.5°C 2°C above preindustrial global mean temperatures, we investigate changes in aridity risk consecutive years. If warming is limited to 2°C, these suggest little U.S. Southwest Central Plains compared present day. In Mediterranean central Europe, however, increases...
Abstract. The Paris Agreement of December 2015 stated a goal to pursue efforts keep global temperatures below 1.5 °C above preindustrial levels and well 2 °C. IPCC was charged with assessing climate impacts at these temperature levels, but fully coupled equilibrium simulations do not currently exist inform such assessments. In this study, we produce set scenarios using simple model designed achieve long-term in stable climate. These are then used century-scale ensemble the Community Earth...
Abstract Geoengineering methods could potentially offset aspects of greenhouse gas‐driven climate change. However, before embarking on any such strategy, a comprehensive understanding its impacts must be obtained. Here, 20‐member ensemble simulations with the Community Earth System Model Whole Atmosphere Climate as atmospheric component is used to investigate projected hydroclimate changes that occur when warming, under high emissions scenario, stratospheric aerosol geoengineering. Notable...
Abstract A few days with heavy rain contribute disproportionately to total precipitation, while many light drizzle much less. What is not appreciated just how asymmetric this distribution in time, and the even more nature of trends due climate change. We diagnose temporal asymmetry models observations. Half annual precipitation falls wettest 12 each year median across observing stations worldwide. Climate project changes that are uneven than present‐day precipitation. In a scenario high...
Abstract The evolving roles of anthropogenic aerosols (AER) and greenhouse gases (GHG) in driving large-scale patterns precipitation SST trends during 1920–2080 are studied using a new set “all-but-one-forcing” initial-condition large ensembles (LEs) with the Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1), which complement original “all-forcing” CESM1 LE (ALL). number ensemble members (15–20) each LEs enables regional impacts AER GHG to be isolated from noise model’s internal variability....
Abstract Storms include a range of weather events resulting in heavy liquid and solid precipitation high winds. These critically impact crops natural resources and, turn, health, economy, infrastructure safety. The intensity frequency the physical mechanisms triggering storms will most likely increase under global warming due to changing flows water energy atmosphere. Addressing storm threats holistically requires nexus approach that links climate change, infrastructure, human prosperity...
Abstract. Radiative kernels at the top of atmosphere are useful for decomposing changes in atmospheric radiative fluxes due to feedbacks from and surface temperature, water vapor, albedo. Here we describe validate calculated with large-ensemble version CAM5, CESM1.1.2, surface. Estimates forcing greenhouse gases aerosols RCP8.5 CESM simulations also diagnosed. As an application, large ensemble. The freely available https://doi.org/10.5065/D6F47MT6, accompanying software can be downloaded...
Abstract The Sawyer–Eliassen Equation (SEQ) is here rederived in height coordinates such that the sea surface also a coordinate surface. Compared with conventional derivation mass field coordinates, this formulation adds some complexity, but arguably less than inherent terrain-following or interpolation to lower physical boundary. Spatial variations of static stability change vertical structure flow streamfunction. This effect leads significant changes both secondary-circulation and...
The rate of increase global-mean precipitation per degree surface temperature differs for greenhouse gas and aerosol forcings across emissions scenarios with differing composition change in forcing. We investigate whether or not the extreme also varies four that force Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, version 5 multimodel ensemble. In most models, maximum annual daily global warming ensemble is statistically indistinguishable scenarios, this calculated globally, over all land,...
Abstract Internal atmospheric variability fundamentally limits predictability of climate and obscures evidence anthropogenic change regionally on time scales up to a few decades. Dynamical adjustment techniques estimate subsequently remove the influence circulation temperature or precipitation. The residual component is expected contain thermodynamical signal externally forced response but with less circulation-induced noise. Existing have led important insights into recent trends in...
Quantifying how climate change may impact precipitation extremes is a priority for informing adaptation and policy planning. In this study, Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 global models are analyzed to identify robust signals of projected changes in summer winter over the United States (US). Under fossil-fuel based economic (i.e. high greenhouse gas emissions) scenario, our results show consistent seasonal patterns many by end 21st century. We find increase intensity across...
Abstract Realistically representing the present-day characteristics of extreme precipitation has been a challenge for global climate models, which is due in part to deficiencies model resolution and physics, but also lack consistency gridded observations. In this study, we use three observation datasets, including rain gauge satellite data, assess historical simulations from sixteen Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models. We separately evaluate summer winter over United...
Abstract Anthropogenic changes in the variability of precipitation stand to impact both natural and human systems profound ways. Precipitation encompasses not only extremes like droughts floods, but also spectrum which populates times between these extremes. Understanding alongside mean extreme is essential unraveling hydrological cycle’s response warming. We use a suite state-of-the-art climate models, with each model consisting single-model initial-condition large ensemble (SMILE),...