(NOTE: Each chapter concludes with Problems and Complements, Notes, References.) 1. Statistical Models, Goals, Performance Criteria. Data, Parameters, Statistics. Bayesian Models. The Decision Theoretic Framework. Prediction. Sufficiency. Exponential Families. 2. Methods of Estimation. Basic Heuristics Minimum Contrast Estimates Estimating Equations. Maximum Likelihood in Multiparameter Algorithmic Issues. 3. Measures Performance. Introduction. Bayes Procedures. Minimax Unbiased Estimation...

There is no generally accepted procedure for identifying ultradian pulsations in hormonal time series. We suggest an approach based on removing long-term trends, such as diurnal rhythms, from the series of observations; peaks residual series; and resolving each peak, if appropriate, into overlapping secretory episodes. The first step uses a robust smoothing technique to generate smoothed that omits or trends with constants less than 6--12 h. subtracted original, second their difference,...

This paper proves almost-sure convergence of the empirical measure normalized singular values increasing rectangular submatrices an infinite random matrix independent elements. The limit is as both dimensions grow large in some ratio. elements are required to have uniformly bounded central $2 + \delta$th moments, and same means variances within a row. first section (relaxing restriction on variances) any limit-in-distribution be constant rather than measure, establishes existence...

Mortality rates level off at extreme age The demography of human longevity is a contentious topic. On the basis high-quality data from Italians aged 105 and older, Barbi et al. show that mortality constant ages but levels decline somewhat across cohorts. Human death increase exponentially up to about 80, then decelerate, plateau after 105. Science , this issue p. 1459

In historical accounts of the circumstances ordinary people's lives, nutrition has been great unknown. Nearly impossible to measure or assess directly, it nonetheless held responsible for declining mortality rates nineteenth century as well being a major factor in gap living standards, morbidity and between rich poor. The measurement height is means direct assessment nutritional status. This important innovative study uses wealth military philanthropic data establish changing heights Britons...

Many competing criteria are under consideration for prioritizing COVID-19 vaccination. Two based on age demographic: lives saved and years of future life saved. Vaccinating the very old against saves most lives, but, since older is accompanied by falling expectancy, it widely supposed that these two goals in conflict. We show this to be mistaken. The patterns mortality such vaccinating oldest first and, surprisingly, also maximizes remaining expectancy. demonstrate relationship empirically...

Abstract Historical samples of military, naval, and merchant marine heights suffer from undercounts short people, highly irregular compared to the truncated distributions for which standard methods are available. Our knowledge is too imprecise parametric models undercount process but it suffices intuitive description deviations normality with estimators should cope. Two new developed. The first adapts maximum likelihood normals height histograms gradual lower-tail shortfall. second exploits...

Consider the positive roots of determinental equation $\det|YJY^\ast - x^2YY^\ast| = 0$ for a $p(n)$ by $n$ sample matrix independent unit Gaussians $Y$ with transpose $Y^\ast$ and projection $J$ rank $m(n).$ We prove that empirical measure these converges in probability to nonrandom limit $F$ as $p(n), m(n),$ go infinity $p(n)/n \rightarrow \beta$ $m(n)/n \mu$ $(0, 1).$ Along possible atoms at zero one, has density proportional $((x A)(x + A)(B x)(B x))^\frac{1}{2}/\lbrack x(1 x)(1 x)...

In historical accounts of the circumstances ordinary people's lives, nutrition has been great unknown. Nearly impossible to measure or assess directly, it nonetheless held responsible for declining mortality rates nineteenth century as well being a major factor in gap living standards, morbidity and between rich poor. The measurement height is means direct assessment nutritional status. This important innovative study uses wealth military philanthropic data establish changing heights Britons...

This paper offers an empirical and analytic foundation for regarding period life expectancy as a lagged indicator of the experience real cohorts in populations experiencing steady improvement mortality. We find that current industrialized world applies to born some 40-50 years ago. Lags track average age at which future are being gained, sense we make precise. Our findings augment Ryder's classic results on period-cohort translation.

To many historians, and to most of their students, the question impact Industrial Revolution upon poor Britain has become confused, an arcane debate ever greater statistical complexity. This is a pity, for “the sustained single controversy in British economic history” still has, should have, capacity excite rouse imagination, as it did those who began, first half nineteenth century, Condition England (Mathias, 1975: vii; Taylor, xi). For Friedrich Engels, Edwin Chadwick, John Stuart Mill, or...

W. D. Hamilton's celebrated formula for the age-specific force of natural selection furnishes predictions senescent mortality due to mutation accumulation, at price reliance on a linear approximation. Applying setting full nonlinear demographic model accumulation recently developed by Evans, Steinsaltz, and Wachter, we find surprising differences. Nonlinear interactions cause collapse Hamilton-style in most commonly studied case, refine other cases, allow walls death ages before end...

We consider the problem of interpreting negative maximum likelihood estimates heritability that sometimes arise from popular statistical models additive genetic variation. These may result random noise acting on genuinely positive heritability, but we argue they also misspecification standard mechanism is supposed to justify procedure. Researchers should be open possibility could reflect a real physical feature biological process which data were sampled.

This paper provides an overview of work on statistical formulations and analyses associated with the problem identifying persons basis spectral energy representations acoustical utterances. The investigation has been largely empirical focuses techniques strategies that have developed in context analyzing two sizeable bodies data. problems procedures to be discussed include: (i) data condensation representation; (ii) efficient practical criteria for classification discrimination; (iii)...

Evolutionary processes of natural selection may be expected to leave their mark on age patterns survival and reproduction. Demographic theory includes three main strands—mutation accumulation, stochastic vitality, optimal life histories. This paper reviews the strands and, concentrating mutation extends a mathematical result with broad implications concerning effect interactions between small age-specific effects deleterious mutant alleles. Empirical data from genomic sequencing along...

Plateaus in the age pattern of hazard functions at extreme ages have been discovered large populations medflies, Drosophila, nematodes, and people. Mueller Rose [(1996) Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 93, 15249-15253] proposed several age-structured demographic models to represent effects mutation accumulation antagonistic pleiotropy on randomly evolving schedules rates. They assert that "evolutionary theory [as embodied their models] predicts late-life mortality plateaus." This paper defines a...