A5039887317- Climate variability and models
- Atmospheric Ozone and Climate
- Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics
- Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
- Oceanographic and Atmospheric Processes
- Atmospheric chemistry and aerosols
- Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research
- Advanced Radiotherapy Techniques
- Climate change and permafrost
- Arctic and Antarctic ice dynamics
- Ionosphere and magnetosphere dynamics
- Lung Cancer Diagnosis and Treatment
- Solar and Space Plasma Dynamics
- Marine and coastal ecosystems
- Solar Radiation and Photovoltaics
- Geology and Paleoclimatology Research
- Plant Water Relations and Carbon Dynamics
- Management of metastatic bone disease
- Geophysics and Gravity Measurements
- Semantic Web and Ontologies
- Ultrasound and Hyperthermia Applications
- Spine and Intervertebral Disc Pathology
- Esophageal and GI Pathology
- Cryospheric studies and observations
- Tracheal and airway disorders
Met Office
2016-2025
East Tennessee State University
2025
Cleveland Clinic
1996-2018
National Centre for Atmospheric Science
2018
Phillips Exeter Academy
2017
Cleveland Foundation
2016
Cleveland Research (United States)
2016
Cleveland State University
2015
We document the development of first version U.K. Earth System Model UKESM1. The model represents a major advance on its predecessor HadGEM2-ES, with enhancements to all component models and new feedback mechanisms. These include core physical well-resolved stratosphere; terrestrial biogeochemistry coupled carbon nitrogen cycles enhanced land management; tropospheric-stratospheric chemistry allowing holistic simulation radiative forcing from ozone, methane, nitrous oxide; two-moment,...
Abstract We describe the scientific and technical implementation of two models for a core set experiments contributing to sixth phase Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). The used are physical atmosphere‐land‐ocean‐sea ice model HadGEM3‐GC3.1 Earth system UKESM1 which adds carbon‐nitrogen cycle atmospheric chemistry HadGEM3‐GC3.1. results constrained by external boundary conditions (forcing data) initial conditions. outline rationale assumptions made in specifying these. Notable...
Abstract. Poor air quality is currently responsible for large impacts on human health across the world. In addition, pollutants ozone (O3) and particulate matter less than 2.5 µm in diameter (PM2.5) are also radiatively active atmosphere can influence Earth's climate. It important to understand effect of climate mitigation measures over historical period different future scenarios ascertain any from both health. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) presents an...
Abstract. We document and evaluate the aerosol schemes as implemented in physical Earth system models, Global Coupled 3.1 configuration of Hadley Centre Environment Model version 3 (HadGEM3-GC3.1) United Kingdom System (UKESM1), which are contributing to sixth Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). The simulation aerosols present-day period historical ensemble these models is evaluated against a range observations. Updates microphysics scheme documented well differences representation between...
Abstract We describe and evaluate historical simulations which use the third Hadley Centre Global Environment Model in Coupled configuration 3.1 (HadGEM3‐GC3.1) form part of UK's contribution to sixth Intercomparison Project, CMIP6. These simulations, run at two resolutions, respond historically evolving forcings such as greenhouse gases, aerosols, solar irradiance, volcanic land use, ozone concentrations. assess response these compare against observational record. This includes evolution...
Abstract Climate forcing, sensitivity, and feedback metrics are evaluated in both the United Kingdom's physical climate model HadGEM3‐GC3.1 at low (‐LL) medium (‐MM) resolution Earth System Model UKESM1. The effective sensitivity (EffCS) to a doubling of CO 2 is 5.5 K for HadGEM3.1‐GC3.1‐LL 5.4 transient response 2.5 2.8 K, respectively. While EffCS larger than that seen previous generation models, none model's forcing or processes found be atypical though cloud high end. relatively large...
The possibility that Arctic sea ice loss weakens mid-latitude westerlies, promoting more severe cold winters, has sparked than a decade of scientific debate, with apparent support from observations but inconclusive modelling evidence. Here we show sixteen models contributing to the Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project simulate weakening westerlies in response projected loss. We develop an emergent constraint based on eddy feedback, which is 1.2 3 times too weak models,...
Abstract The predictability of the quasi‐biennial oscillation (QBO) is examined in initialized climate forecasts extending out to lead times years. We use retrospective predictions made with coupled ocean‐atmosphere models that have an internally generated QBO. demonstrate QBO more than 3 years into future, well beyond timescales normally associated internal atmospheric processes. Correlation scores observational analyses exceed 0.7 at a time 12 months. also examine variation season and...
Abstract Preindustrial control simulations with the third Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model, run in Coupled configuration 3.1 of Met Office Unified Model (HadGEM3‐GC3.1) are presented at two resolutions. These N216ORCA025, which has a horizontal resolution 60 km atmosphere and 0.25° ocean, N96ORCA1, 130 1° ocean. The aim this study is to document climate variability these simulations, make comparisons against present‐day observations (albeit under different forcing), discuss...
The 11‐year solar cycle signal in December–January–February (DJF) averaged mean‐sea‐level pressure (SLP) and Atlantic/European blocking frequency is examined using multilinear regression with indices to represent variability associated the cycle, volcanic eruptions, El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Atlantic Multidecadal (AMO). Results from a previous study of period 1870–2010 (140 years; ∼13 cycles) that suggested 3–4 year lagged SLP over are confirmed by analysis much longer...
Abstract The Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation (QBO) is the dominant mode of interannual variability in tropical stratosphere, with easterly and westerly zonal wind regimes alternating over a period about 28 months. It appears to influence Northern Hemisphere winter stratospheric polar vortex atmospheric circulation near Earth's surface. However, short observational record makes unequivocal identification these surface connections challenging. To overcome this, we use multicentury control...
Abstract. The Stratosphere–troposphere Processes And their Role in Climate (SPARC) Quasi-Biennial Oscillation initiative (QBOi) aims to improve the fidelity of tropical stratospheric variability general circulation and Earth system models by conducting coordinated numerical experiments analysis. In equatorial stratosphere, QBO is most conspicuous mode variability. Five have therefore been designed (i) evaluate compare verisimilitude modelled QBOs under present-day conditions, (ii) identify...
We present a substantial upgrade of the Met Office system for probabilistic attribution extreme weather and climate events with higher horizontal vertical resolution (60 km mid-latitudes 85 levels), latest Hadley Centre atmospheric land model (ENDGame dynamics GA6.0 science JULES at GL6.0) as well an updated forcings set. A new set experiments designed evaluation implementation operational service are described which consist pairs multi-decadal stochastic physics ensembles continued on...
Numerous studies have suggested an impact of the 11 year solar cycle on winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), with increased tendency for positive (negative) NAO signals to occur at maxima (minima) cycle. Climate models successfully reproduced this modulation NAO, although magnitude effect is often considerably weaker than implied by observations. A leading candidate mechanism influence via ultraviolet radiation variability heating rates in tropical upper stratosphere, and consequently...
Evidence from paleo-proxy records suggests that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) can be in both an AMOC on state, as we observe it today, and off where becomes extremely weak or even collapses. The freshwater transport due to (Mov) at 34°S has often been used indicator for bi-stability, with a positive Mov suggesting monostable negative bi-stable AMOC. Often studies have shown sign of divergence might good bi-stability. In this study investigate how model bias affects...
Abstract In South America, land–atmosphere interactions have an important impact on climate, particularly the regional hydrological cycle, but detailed evaluation of these processes in global climate models has been limited. Focusing satellite-era period 2003–14, we assess annual to seasonal time scales over America satellite products, a novel reanalysis (ERA5-Land), and two models: Brazilian Global Atmospheric Model version 1.2 (BAM-1.2) U.K. Hadley Centre Environment 3 (HadGEM3). We...
Abstract. The Brewer–Dobson circulation (BDC) is a key feature of the stratosphere that models need to accurately represent in order simulate surface climate variability and change adequately. For first time, Climate Model Intercomparison Project includes its phase 6 (CMIP6) set diagnostics allow for careful evaluation BDC. Here, BDC evaluated against observations reanalyses using historical simulations. CMIP6 results confirm well-known inconsistency sign trends between middle upper...
Decadal variability in the North Atlantic and its subpolar gyre (SPG) has been shown to be predictable climate models initialized with concurrent ocean state. Numerous impacts over land have also identified. Here we use three versions of Met Office Prediction System provide a multimodel ensemble forecast SPG related impacts. The recent cooling trend is predicted continue next 5 years due decrease heat convergence slowdown Meridional Overturning Circulation. We present evidence that able...
A necessary step before assessing the performance of decadal predictions is evaluation processes that bring memory to climate system, both in models and observations. These mechanisms are particularly relevant North Atlantic, where ocean circulation, related Subpolar Gyre Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), thought be important for driving significant heat content anomalies. Recently, a rapid decline observed densities deep Labrador Sea has pointed an ongoing slowdown AMOC strength...
The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the regional manifestation of Arctic (AO), dominates winter climate variability in Europe and America. Skilful seasonal forecasting NAO/AO has been demonstrated recently by dynamical prediction systems. However, role initial conditions this predictability remains unknown. Using a latest generation system reanalysis data, we show that upper stratospheric zonal wind anomaly contributes to through downward propagation conditions. An polar westerly/easterly...
Abstract. We document and evaluate the aerosol schemes as implemented in physical Earth system models, HadGEM3-GC3.1 (GC3.1) UKESM1, which are contributing to 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). The simulation of aerosols present-day period historical ensemble these models is evaluated against a range observations. Updates microphysics scheme documented well differences representation between configurations. additional Earth-system interactions included UKESM1 leads emissions...
Abstract Extreme polar vortex events known as sudden stratospheric warmings can influence surface winter weather conditions, but their timing is difficult to predict. Here, we examine factors that occurrence, with a focus on and vertical extent. We consider the roles of troposphere equatorial stratosphere separately, using split event in January 2009 primary case study. This cannot be reproduced by constraining wind temperatures alone, even when lower correct phase quasi biennial...
Abstract A multi‐model study is carried out to investigate the ability of models predict evolution quasi‐biennial oscillation (QBO) up 12 months in advance. All are initialised from common reanalysis data, and forecasts run for a set 30 start dates over 15 years. have high skill predicting phase QBO at 20–30 hPa, with slightly more variable results higher lower levels. Other aspects predicted quality, some cases consistently poor. easterlies too weak all 20–50 while westerlies can be either...
Abstract The relative importance of anthropogenic aerosol in decadal variations historical climate is uncertain, largely due to uncertainty radiative forcing. We analyze a novel large ensemble simulations with HadGEM3‐GC3.1 for 1850–2014, where and precursor emissions are scaled sample wide range forcing present‐day values ranging from –0.38 –1.50 Wm –2 . Five members run each five scaling factors. Decadal surface temperatures strongly sensitive forcing, particularly between 1950 1980....