Abstract We investigate the contribution of anthropogenic forcing to extreme temperature and precipitation events in Central Asia (CA) during last 60 years. bias-adjust downscale two Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) ensemble outputs, with natural (labelled as hist-nat , driven only by solar volcanic forcing) plus hist all-forcings), $$0.25^{\circ } \times 0.25 ^{\circ }$$ <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"> <mml:mrow> <mml:mn>0</mml:mn>...

Abstract This study investigates the attribution of climate change to trends in river discharge during six decades from 1955 until 2014 12 selected catchments across Central Asian countries located upstream main rivers. For this purpose, semi-distributed eco-hydrological model SWIM (Soil and Water Integrated Model) was firstly calibrated validated for all catchments. Attributing streamflow simulation forced by factual (reanalysis) counterfactual data (assuming absence anthropogenic...

Abstract Central Asia (CA) is among the world's most vulnerable regions to climate change. Increasing anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations (GHGs) are primary forcing of current and future system for time scale a century. By analysing observation datasets, we show that warming 1.2°C led decrease 20% in snow‐depth CA during last 70 years, especially over mountains. In recent decades, longer summer times fewer icing days (more than 20 days·year −1 ) have exposed unprecedented shock CA's...

In this study, we demonstrate the dynamical core and applicability of Aeolus 2.0, a moist-convective thermal rotating shallow water model intermediate complexity, along with its novel bulk aerodynamic schemes, in capturing effects increased radiative forcing on zonal winds heatwaves. Simulations reveal seasonal patterns wind, temperature, energy anomalies under during summer solstice, winter equinoxes. Increased enhances mid-latitudinal temperatures solstice Northern Hemisphere Southern...

Abstract We study the impact of recent global warming on extreme climatic events in Central Asia (CA) for 1901-2019 by comparing composite representation observational climate with a hypothetical counterfactual one that does not include long-term trend. The data are produced based simple detrending approach, using mean temperature (GMT) as independent variable and removing trends from variables data. This trend elimination is causality, day-to-day variability remains preserved. analysis done...

Abstract In this study, a novel sea surface evaporation scheme, along with its corresponding bulk aerodynamic formulation, is proposed to estimate evaporation, columnar humidity, and precipitation distribution within the atmosphere. The scheme based on three distinct functions, each dependent single variable: zonal wind velocity, tropospheric (potential) temperature, free convection. It shown that normalized Clausius–Clapeyron formula requires an adjustable scaling factor for real‐world...

Simulations using the ECHAM5/MPI-OM coupled atmosphere–ocean model both with and without Tibetan Plateau are performed in order to study large scale effects of orographic forcing on behaviour Asian summer monsoon system. Our analysis emphasises significant impact plateau interactions. It is argued that, addition climate Asia such as sensible heat pumping thermal insulation, other direct processes exist, which link sea surface temperatures North Atlantic Ocean. The removal modifies...

We present a climate modeling approach to reproduce the rainfall patterns over Iran due climatic forcings during past 6000 years. The selected periods are simulated using spatially high-resolved atmosphere General Circulation Model (GCM). Our results show that winter have changed changes in solar insolation with wetter condition starting around 3 ka BP and reaching its maximum Medieval Climate Anomaly ca. 1 BP. variability can be explained by atmospheric conditions as result of changing...

The Indian Monsoon Variability during the past Millennium has been simulated with ECHAM5 model in two different time slices: Medieval Climate Anomaly and Little Ice Age. simulations are compared new centennial-resolving paleo-reconstructions inferred from various well-dated multi-proxies core regions, Himalaya Central India. A qualitative moisture index is derived proxies anomalies. reconstructed paleo-hydrological changes between Age depict a dipole pattern India, which also captured by...

This study tackles one of the most debated questions around evolution Central Asian climate: "Puzzle" moisture changes in Arid Asia (ACA) throughout past millennium. A state-of-the-art Regional Climate Model (RCM) is subsequently employed to investigate four different 31-year time slices extreme dry and wet spells, chosen according driving data, order analyse spatio-temporal variability two climatological epochs: Medieval Anomaly (MCA) Little Ice Age (LIA). There a clear regime behavior...

Abstract In this discourse, we present the unveiling of an open‐source software package designed to facilitate engagement with atmospheric model, Aeolus 2.0. This particular iteration stands as a self‐contained model intermediate complexity. The model's dynamical core is underpinned by multi‐layer pseudo‐spectral moist‐convective Thermal Rotating Shallow Water (mcTRSW) model. problem‐solving tasks are handled Dedalus algorithm, acknowledged for its spin‐weighted spherical harmonics. captures...

Abstract This study seeks to understand the meteorological mechanisms that caused widespread and heavy rainfall from 6 14 February 2023, over southern Mozambique eastern northeastern areas in South Africa, including Limpopo Province, Mpumalanga Province northern KwaZulu‐Natal, by examining different outputs reanalysis datasets. The had a substantial hydrological impact, leading significant flooding disruptions. research revealed slow‐moving cutoff low (COL) system remained central parts of...

Abstract. High-resolution climate projections are essential for estimating future change impacts. Statistical and dynamical downscaling methods, or a hybrid of both, commonly employed to generate input datasets impact modelling. In this study, we employ COSMO-CLM (CCLM) version 6.0, regional model, explore the benefits dynamically general circulation model (GCM) from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), focusing on central Asia (CA). The CCLM, at 0.22° horizontal...

This work examines a severe weather event caused by baroclinic disturbance with heavy rainfall and thunderstorms, which struck parts of the UAE major flooding on November 17, 2023. A low-pressure trough extending from Red Sea Trough (RST) towards Eastern Mediterranean (EM) led to extreme flooding. The unique intensity this was correlated mid-latitude amplification even in middle upper tropospheric produced RST. During rain event, two intense moisture sources were injected into region: one...

In the past years, decadal prediction systems have started to fill gap between seasonal forecasts and long-term climate projections. Despite huge progress in predictive skill predictions outperforming projections almost all forecast tasks, still possess large rooms for improvement. Machine learning based already outperformed traditional weather recent years. Similarly, machine has successfully transformed or assisted data assimilation reconstruction tasks. its success sciences, methods not...

High-resolution climate projections are crucial for assessing the future impacts of change. Statistical, dynamic, or hybrid data downscaling is often employed to create datasets required impact modelling. In this study, we utilize COSMO-CLM (CCLM) version 6.0, a regional model, investigate advantages dynamically general circulation model (GCM) from CMIP6, with focus on Central Asia (CA). The CCLM, running at 0.22&amp;#176; horizontal resolution, driven by MPI-ESM1-2-HR GCM (at 1&amp;#176;...

This study introduces Aeolus 2.0[1, 2], a novel multilayer moist-convective Thermal Rotating Shallow Water (mcTRSW) model designed to simulate atmospheric dynamics under various forcings, such as increased radiative or thermal forcing, well the effects of latent heat release and transfer on meso- large-scale dynamics. The incorporates scheme that respects conservation laws, new bulk aerodynamic for sea surface evaporation sensible flux, provides computationally efficient yet physically...

Abstract. Paleoclimate data assimilation (DA) is a promising technique to systematically combine the information from climate model simulations and proxy records. Here, we investigate of tree-ring-width (TRW) chronologies into an atmospheric global using ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) techniques process-based tree-growth forward as observation operator. Our results, within perfect-model experiment setting, indicate that "online DA" approach did not outperform "off-line" one, despite its...

Abstract. The past as an analogue for the future is one of main motivations to use climate models paleoclimate applications. Assessing possible model limitations in simulating changes can lead improved understanding and representation response system forcing, setting basis more reliable information future. In this study, regional (RCM) COSMO-CLM used investigation mid-Holocene (MH, 6000 years ago) European climate, aiming contribute solution long-standing debate on reconstruction MH summer...

Abstract Recent studies have shown that hydro-climatic extremes increased significantly in number and intensity the last decades. In Northern Hemisphere such events were often associated with long lasting persistent weather patterns. 2018, hot dry conditions prevailed for several months over Central Europe leading to record-breaking temperatures severe harvest losses. The underlying circulation processes are still not fully understood there is a need improved methodologies detect quantify...

Abstract. Two PMIP3/CMIP5 climate model ensemble simulations of the past millennium have been analysed to identify occurrence Asian mega-droughts. The Palmer drought severity index (PDSI) is used as key metric for data comparison hydro-climatological conditions. results are compared with proxy Monsoon Asia Drought Atlas (MADA). Our study shows that global circulation models (GCMs) capable capturing majority historically recorded monsoon failures at right time and a comparable spatial...

Maximum covariance analysis (MCA) and isometric feature mapping (Isomap) are applied to investigate the spatio-temporal atmosphere–ocean interactions otherwise hidden in observational data for period of 1979–2010. Despite an established long-term surface warming trend whole northern hemisphere, sea temperatures (SST) East Pacific have remained relatively constant 2001–2010. Our reveals that SST anomaly probability density function leading two Isomap components is bimodal. We conclude shows...

Abstract We employ a high‐resolution Köppen climate classification dataset to examine shifts in Tundra zones within the Alps and Asia. Our analysis shows substantial reductions areas by mid‐21st century under different Shared. Socioeconomic pathways (SSP1‐2.6, SSP3‐7.0, SSP5‐8.5). Tibetan Plateau are crucial for their unique climates role as water reservoirs. Characterized short, mild summers long, severe winters, these vital glaciers perennial snow. The projected instability may...

Abstract. Data assimilation (DA) methods have been used recently to constrain the climate model forecasts by paleo-proxy records. Both DA and models are computationally very expensive. Moreover, in paleo-DA, time step of consequence for observations is usually too long a dynamical follow previous analysis state chaotic behavior becomes dominant. The majority recent paleoclimate studies using performed low- or intermediate-resolution global simulations along with an “off-line” approach. In...