Predictability of summer climate anomalies over East Asia and the northwestern Pacific is investigated using observations a multimodel hindcast ensemble initialized on 1 May for recent 20–30 yr. Summertime under influence subtropical high (PASH). The Pacific–Japan (PJ) teleconnection pattern, meridional dipole sea level pressure variability, affects PASH. forecast models generally capture association PJ pattern with El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Silk Road wave train along Asian jet,...

Slow modulation of interannual variability and its relationship to El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is investigated for the period 1870–2007 using shipboard surface meteorological observations along a frequently traveled track across north Indian Ocean (NIO; from Gulf Aden through Malacca Strait) South China Sea (to Luzon Strait). During decades in late nineteenth–early twentieth century century, Niño–induced NIO warming persists longer than during 1910s–mid-1970s, well into summer...

This study investigates the long‐term variability of surface air temperature (SAT) over Arabian Peninsula (AP), using data from Climate Research Unit (TS 3.22) for 1960–2010 period. The climatology suggests that warmest AP mean temperatures occur during summer, with highest northern (NAP), due to monsoon–desert mechanism. During winter, NAP exhibits low SATs under influence western disturbances originating Mediterranean. southwestern lowest because its proximity Sea cold waters, and also...

Abstract Basin‐wide wintertime surface warming is observed in the Indian Ocean during El Niño years. The basin‐wide found to be stronger when and Dipole (IOD) co‐occur. mechanisms responsible for are different years with only (El without IOD) co‐occurrence (both Strong westward propagation of downwelling Rossby waves southern IOD Such strong not seen case Niño‐only This indicates that ocean dynamics play an important role winter western weak easterly wind anomalies show no measurable impact...

The skills of 11 coupled ocean‐atmosphere general circulation models (CGCMs) are investigated in the prediction seasonal rainfall and anomalies over northwest (NW) Pacific for period 1980–2001, with a focus on summer following mature phase El Niño (hereafter JJA(1)). It is shown that first empirical orthogonal function (EOF) mode sea level pressure closely tied to second EOF variability NW during JJA(1), indicative strong feedback between convection. Most associated multimodel ensemble well...

Abstract This study discusses the impact of Pacific–Japan (PJ) pattern on Indian summer monsoon (ISM) rainfall and its possible physical linkages through coupled uncoupled pathways. Empirical orthogonal function analysis 850-hPa relative vorticity over western North Pacific (WNP) is used to extract PJ as leading mode circulation variability. The partial correlation principal component reveals that positive pattern, which features anticyclonic cyclonic low-level anomalies tropical WNP around...

Abstract The Indian rainfall and the Atlantic Niño peaks during summer month have inverse relationship. This relationship has been revisited in current study it is found that significantly influences a dipole pattern of north–east north-western parts India. positive phase intensifies inter-tropical convergence zone, as result this local tropospheric warming, over equatorial east west Africa, owing to enlargement upper-troposphere divergence. provokes meridional stationary wave stronger...

Abstract In the summer of 2022, a long-lasting La Niña entered its third year. Asia, southern China was in grip historic drought while heavy rainfall ravaged Pakistan. Using climate model forced by observed sea surface temperatures (SST) over equatorial Pacific, we show that back-to-back events from 2020 to 2022 are key contributor global SST pattern including negative-phase Pacific decadal oscillation and exceptionally strong negative Indian Ocean dipole. The reproduces precipitation South...

A suite of satellite and in‐situ observations are used to study ocean‐atmospheric conditions over the tropical Southwest Indian Ocean (SWIO) during 2006–2007 when El Nino an dipole took place simultaneously. Argo profiles reveal a pronounced up‐westward propagation subsurface warming in southern associated with Rossby waves traveling on sloping thermocline. With thermocline deepening by 60 m, thick barrier layer forms propagates wave, potentially contributing mixed warming.

Abstract The role of local air‐sea interactions over the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) and remote forcing from Pacific in formation maintenance southern TIO Rossby waves during El Niño positive Dipole (IOD) years is investigated. These are significantly intensified IOD cooccurrence years, as compared to those pure or years. Coupled ocean‐atmosphere model sensitivity experiments reveal that coupled processes responsible for wave its boreal summer fall, while intensifies maintains these up...

Abstract India has experienced remarkable changes in temperature extremes recent decades due to rapid global warming leading extreme heat events with disastrous societal impacts. In response continuing warming, this study investigates summertime (March–June) heatwave characteristics over the present and future climate. During 1951–2020, Meteorological Department observational data show rising trends such as frequency, intensity, duration, season length, mainly India’s northwest, central,...

Abstract India experienced several unprecedented floods in the recent decades. The increase extreme rainfall events (EREs) is primary cause for these floods, manifesting its societal impacts. daily downscaled and bias corrected (DBC) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) sea surface temperature (SST) are prepared Indian region utilized to examine characteristics of EREs. DBC products capture characteristic features EREs baseline period, which inspired us assess over CMIP6...