Early warning information on crop yield and production are very crucial for both farmers decision-makers. In this study, we assess the skill reliability of Integrated Canadian Crop Yield Forecaster (ICCYF), a regional forecasting tool, at different temporal (i.e. 1–3 months before harvest) spatial census agricultural region – CAR, provincial national) scales across Canada. A distinct feature ICCYF is that it generates in-season forecasts well end growing season provides probability...

Crop yield forecasting plays a vital role in coping with the challenges of impacts climate change on agriculture. Improvements timeliness and accuracy by incorporating near real-time remote sensing data use sophisticated statistical methods can improve our capacity to respond effectively these challenges. The objectives this study were (i) investigate derived vegetation indices for spring wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) from Moderate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) at ecodistrict...

We present a novel forecasting method for generating agricultural crop yield forecasts at the seasonal and regional-scale, integrating agroclimate variables remotely-sensed indices. The devises multivariate statistical model to compute bias uncertainty in forecasted Census of Agricultural Region (CAR) scale across Canadian Prairies. uses robust variable-selection select best predictors within spatial subregions. Markov-Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation random forest-tree machine learning...

This study investigated the estimation of grain yields three major annual crops in Ontario (corn, soybean, and winter wheat) using MODIS reflectance data extracted with a general cropland mask crop-specific masks. Time-series two-band enhanced vegetation index (EVI2) was derived from 8 day composite 250 m 2003 to 2016. Using mask, strongest positive linear correlation between crop EVI2 observed at end July early August, whereas negative spring. masks, time for wheat found mid-May June,...

Satellite-derived vegetation indices are widely utilized in yield forecasting models; however, they can be heavily impacted by atmospheric conditions due to their reliance on visible and near-infrared portions of the electromagnetic spectrum. Given importance soil moisture (SM) for crop development, objective this study was investigate use passive microwave-derived estimates surface SM obtained Ocean Salinity Mission (SMOS) satellite canola yields across Canadian Prairies within Agriculture...

Land cover maps are often required in Earth Observation (EO) data analysis to isolate regions where specific land classes present. They normally derived from remote sensing images and ground truthed inputs. The crop that target – herein referred as "crop masks" could be used identify the pixels represent targeted class, which in-turn potentially improve inputs for agricultural applications such crop-specific yield forecasting. In this study, a set of masks Agriculture Agri-Food Canada's...

This paper reports an alternative method for seasonal and long-term monitoring of biomass the leaf area index (LAI) at Arctic tundra sites. Information related to historical projected change in abundance distribution LAI is required address numerous environmental resource management issues. Observations earth from satellites could potentially be used derive changes LAI. To realize this potential, ground data validation are essential; however, conventional destructive sampling measuring does...

Cropland productivity is impacted by climate. Knowledge on spatial-temporal patterns of the impacts at regional scale extremely important for improving crop management under limiting climatic factors. The aim this study was to investigate effects climate variability cropland in Canadian Prairies between 2000 and 2013 based time series MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) FAPAR (Fraction Absorbed Photosynthetically Active Radiation) product. Key phenological metrics,...

. This article presents a methodology that uses fuzzy decision tree classifier and phenological indicators derived from remote sensing data for identifying major crop types in southwestern Ontario eastern Canada. Phenological were time series Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) calculated 250-m surface reflectance of the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). Training testing samples classification maps at 30-m resolution 2011, 2012, 2013. 2013 used discrimination...

The soybean industry in Canada is seeking opportunities to expand cultivation due economic and environmental benefits of growing soybean. Climate projections indicate that expansion into Saskatchewan would be possible with the increases available crop heat units under a future warmer climate; however, water availability could limit yields. Using growth model, we simulated yields within Canadian Regional Agricultural Model regions for near-term (2030s), mid-term (2050s), distant (2070s)...

Abstract With the objective of trying to understand adaptability agriculture across Canadian Prairies under climate change, simple‐to‐use agroclimatic indices were calculated for base period 1981 2010 and both medium (RCP4.5) high (RCP8.5) emission projections extending distant future (2071–2100). The included Effective Growing Degree Days (EGDDs), Season Length (GSL), Climate Moisture Index (CMI), Temperature Humidity (THI). For change in 30‐year periods, these as multi‐model ensembles six...

Interannual variations of spring wheat yields in Canadian agricultural regions are analyzed, together with the associated sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies northern hemisphere tropics and extratropics, from 1961 to 2015. The cubic trend is calculated used represent related advances technology over this time period. correlations between at regional scales tropical El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability not robust any stage evolution ENSO. Based on power spectrum cross-spectrum...

Cropland productivity, characterized by crop yields, is determined soil and meteorological conditions as well management practices, e.g., types their associated phenological cycles. As canopy spectral reflectance governed vegetation photosynthetic activities indicative of primary we investigated the potential using time-series NDVI for mapping spatial variability cropland productivity in south-western Ontario, Canada. was derived from 8-day composite 250-m MODIS surface data, a general mask...

Satellite soil moisture is a critical variable for identifying susceptibility to hydroclimatic risks such as drought, dryness, and excess moisture. data from the Soil Moisture Active/Passive (SMAP) mission was used evaluate sensitivity risk events in Canada. The SMAP sets general capture relative trends with best estimates passive-only derived little difference between at different spatial resolutions. In general, overestimated magnitude of wet extremes wetting events. A average (SMDA)...