Can the time, location, and magnitude of future earthquakes be predicted reliably accurately? In their Perspective, Geller et al .'s answer is “no.” Citing recent results from physics nonlinear systems “chaos theory,” they argue that any small earthquake has some chance cascading into a large event. According to research cited by authors, whether or not this happens depends on unmeasurably fine details conditions in Earth's interior. Earthquakes are therefore inherently unpredictable. ....

A data set of 41 moderate and large earthquakes has been used to derive scaling rules for kinematic fault parameters. If effective stress static drop are equal, then rise time, τ, area, S, related by τ = 16S^(1/2)/(7π^(3/2)β), where β is shear velocity. Fault length (parallel strike) width dip) empirically L=2W. Scatter both about a factor two. These laws combine give time in terms length. Length as the sole free parameter Haskell type model relating seismic moment M_S (20-sec surface-wave...

We study four M L ‐ 2.7 earthquakes on the San Andreas Fault in Central California. The first two events occurred within five minutes of each other November 1978; January 1979 a nine hour period. CALNET (USGS local array) seismograms these display only some general similarity. However, when low pass filtered below 5 Hz, have nearly identical seismograms. similarity is even more striking pass‐band 2 Hz. This suggests that all are radius no than quarter wavelength, or about 200 400 m. Although...

Many studies have modeled the Tohoku tsunami of March 11, 2011 as being due entirely to slip on an earthquake fault, but following discrepancies suggest that further research is warranted. (1) Published models propagation and coastal impact underpredict observed runup heights up 40 m measured along coast Sanriku district in northeast part Honshu Island. (2) cannot reproduce timing high-frequency content waves recorded at three nearshore buoys off Sanriku, nor dispersion properties waveforms...

abstract The “revised magnitudes”, M, converted from Gutenberg's unified magnitude, m, and listed by Richter (1958) Duda (1965) are systematically higher than the magnitudes Gutenberg (1954) in Seismicity of Earth. This difference is examined on basis Richter's unpublished original worksheets for It concluded that (1) most shallow “class a” earthquakes Earth essentially equivalent to 20-sec surface-wave Ms; (2) revised magnitudes, great (less 40 km) (also used Duda, 1965) heavily emphasize...

Even though it has never been validated by objective testing, Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) widely used for almost 50 years governments and industry in applications with lives property hanging the balance, such as deciding safety criteria nuclear power plants, making official national hazard maps, developing building code requirements, determining earthquake insurance rates. PSHA rests on assumptions now known to conflict physics; many damaging earthquakes, including 1988...

An active seismic zone extends along the passive margin of eastern North America from Baffin Island to Grand Banks Newfoundland. We have determined focal mechanisms several earthquakes, including 1933 Ms 7.3 Bay earthquake, largest event ever recorded American margin. The show thrust faulting for earthquakes seaward 1000 m contour, and primarily normal landward. propose that these are induced by removal Pleistocene glacial loads which extended onto continental shelf. deglaciation reactivated...

abstract The equivalent body forces for a stress-drop seismic source are found. When the isotropic stress drop and one of three principal drops zero, then same double couple without moment which would result from shear dislocation. In general however, all six components must be specified as independent functions time.

A new method is presented for calculating synthetic seismograms and their partial derivatives laterally vertically heterogeneous media with arbitrary natural boundary conditions. The formulation derived by adding appropriate surface integrals to the weak form (Galerkin formulation) of elastic equation motion enforce continuity conditions, inhomogeneous Results applicable consisting a combination fluid solid regions are presented. called Direct Solution Method (DSM) (Geller et al. 1990c)...

We use the direct solution method (DSM) with optimally accurate numerical operators to calculate complete (including both body and surface waves) three-component synthetic seismograms for transversely isotropic (TI), spherically symmetric media, up 2 Hz. present examples of calculations deep (600 km) shallow (5 sources. Such synthetics should be useful in forward inverse studies earth structure. In order make these accurately efficiently vertical grid spacing, maximum angular order, cut-off...

Research Article| September 01, 2011 Bad Assumptions or Luck: Why Earthquake Hazard Maps Need Objective Testing Seth Stein; Stein Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Robert Geller; Geller Mian Liu Author and Article Information Publisher: Seismological Society of America First Online: 09 Mar 2017 Online ISSN: 1938-2057 Print 0895-0695 © the Letters (2011) 82 (5): 623–626. https://doi.org/10.1785/gssrl.82.5.623 history Cite View This Citation Add to Manager Share Icon...

Editorial| November 01, 2012 Characteristic Earthquake Model, 1884–2011, R.I.P. Yan Y. Kagan; Kagan aDepartment of Earth and Space Science, University California at Los Angeles, 595 Charles E. Young Dr. East, 90095‐1567 U.S.A.kagan@moho.ess.ucla.edudavid.d.jackson@ucla.edu Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar David D. Jackson; Jackson Robert J. Geller bDepartment Planetary Graduate School Tokyo, Hongo 7‐3‐1, Bunkyo‐ku, Tokyo 113‐0033 Japanbob@eps.s.u-tokyo.ac.jp...

In a report to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Japanese government stated that Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster was caused not by Tohoku earthquake but tsunami it generated, resulting in loss of power for station's cooling systems and, consequently, three core meltdowns. The countermeasures taken when designed 1960s were, arguably, marginally acceptable considering scientific data then available. But, between 1970s and 2011 disaster, new knowledge emerged about likelihood...

Objective: To investigate the adherence behaviors (MDI use, MDI/spacer technique, appointment attendance, smoking in home) of low-income, urban, primarily African American children with asthma.

We derive modified matrix operators that minimize the numerical error of solutions discretized elastic equation motion. The criterion for obtaining is net motion must be approximately equal to zero whenever operand an eigenfunction and frequency corresponding eigenfrequency. As it not necessary know explicit values eigensolutions, our approach can applied arbitrarily heterogeneous media. In this paper we primarily consider domain calculated using direct solution method (DSM) (Geller et al....

We conducted a mail survey of practicing pediatricians in Georgia to assess their knowledge, attitudes, and behaviors regarding recording patients' environmental histories. Of 477 eligible pediatricians, 266 (55.8%) responded. Fewer than one five reported having received training history-taking. Pediatricians that they strongly believe the importance exposures children's health, 53.5% respondents experience with patient who was seriously affected by an exposure. agreed moderately...