A5079937832- Maritime Navigation and Safety
- Maritime Transport Emissions and Efficiency
- Offshore Engineering and Technologies
- Arctic and Antarctic ice dynamics
- Climate variability and models
- Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
- Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics
- Oceanographic and Atmospheric Processes
- Methane Hydrates and Related Phenomena
- Climate change and permafrost
- Arctic and Russian Policy Studies
- Geophysics and Gravity Measurements
- Marine and Coastal Research
- Cryospheric studies and observations
- Reservoir Engineering and Simulation Methods
- Scientific Research and Discoveries
- Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research
- Atmospheric aerosols and clouds
- Seismology and Earthquake Studies
- Advanced Computational Techniques and Applications
- Ocean Waves and Remote Sensing
- Spacecraft and Cryogenic Technologies
- Atmospheric chemistry and aerosols
- Atmospheric Ozone and Climate
- Drilling and Well Engineering
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Prediction
2023
United States Naval Research Laboratory
2014-2022
Naval Research Laboratory Marine Meteorology Division
2020-2021
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
2011-2014
ABS Consulting (United States)
2013
University of Delaware
2008
Abstract The Subseasonal Experiment (SubX) is a multimodel subseasonal prediction experiment designed around operational requirements with the goal of improving forecasts. Seven global models have produced 17 years retrospective (re)forecasts and more than year weekly real-time reforecasts forecasts are archived at Data Library International Research Institute for Climate Society, Columbia University, providing comprehensive database research on to seasonal predictability predictions. SubX...
This study evaluates the simulation of wintertime (15 October, 2019, to 15 March, 2020) statistics central Arctic near-surface atmosphere and surface energy budget observed during MOSAiC campaign with short-term forecasts from 7 state-of-the-art operational experimental forecast systems. Five these systems are fully coupled ocean-sea ice-atmosphere models. Forecast need simultaneously simulate impact radiative effects, turbulence, precipitation processes on atmospheric conditions in order...
Arctic cloud properties, variability, and sensitivity to surface conditions are strongly dependent on the synoptic regimes in which they exist, proper evaluation of modeled properties against observations requires that dynamic thermodynamic environment be carefully accounted for. In this study, a k ‐means clustering algorithm is used sort clouds observed by CALIPSO into four distinct regimes: three largely associated with mid‐tropospheric subsidence or very weak uplift separated differences...
Abstract This paper describes the new global Navy Earth System Prediction Capability (Navy‐ESPC) coupled atmosphere‐ocean‐sea ice prediction system developed at Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) for operational forecasting timescales of days to subseasonal. Two configurations are validated: (1) a low‐resolution 16‐member ensemble and (2) high‐resolution deterministic system. The Navy‐ESPC became in August 2020, this is first time NRL partner, Fleet Numerical Meteorology Oceanography Center,...
Abstract In this study, the contribution of low-frequency (>100 days), Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO), and convectively coupled equatorial wave (CCEW) variability to skill in predicting convection winds tropics at weeks 1–3 is examined. We use subseasonal forecasts from Navy Earth System Model (NESM); NCEP Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2); ECMWF initialized boreal summer 1999–2015. A technique for performing wavenumber–frequency filtering on introduced applied these...
The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) provides operational air quality (AQ) predictions over the United States global aerosol forecasts.  current model, Air Quality Forecast Capability (NAQFC) at NOAA, has undergone a fundamental paradigm shift through its integration into Earth system modeling Unified System (UFS) as coupled component, Modeling component (AQMv7). AQMv7 embeds EPA Community Multiscale Model (CMAQ) it  been Weather Service (NWS)...
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA’s) Environmental Modeling Center (EMC) is a lead developer of operational Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) systems at the Service (NWS), which are used for protection life property enhancement economy. EMC transitions to operations maintains more than 20 numerical prediction that by NWS, NOAA, other United States (U.S.) federal agencies, various stakeholders. These developed through close collaboration with...
Abstract Mesoscale eddies dominate energetics of the ocean, modify mass, heat and freshwater transport primary production in upper ocean. However, forecast skill horizon for ocean mesoscales current operational models is shorter than 10 days: eddy-resolving models, with horizontal resolution finer km mid-latitudes, represent mesoscale dynamics, but initial conditions are hard to constrain available observations. Here we analyze a suite model simulations at high (1/25°) lower (1/12.5°)...
Abstract Previous research has found that global climate models (GCMs) usually simulate greater lower tropospheric stabilities compared to reanalysis data. To understand the origins of this bias, authors examine hindcast simulations initialized with data six GCMs and find four within five days a positive bias in Arctic stability during polar night over sea ice regions. These biases are mainly due cold surface temperature, as very small potential temperature exist aloft. Similar previous...
Abstract The popular National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)/National Atmospheric Research (NCAR) re‐analysis database was used to create a mean winter seasonal jet stream the northern Pacific Ocean region period 1948–1949 through 2004–2005. Grids of 300 hPa scalar wind were determine latitudinal position primary mid‐latitude on longitudinal resolution 2.5° from eastern Asia western North America. and strength across this are key determinants precipitation variability downstream...
Abstract Arctic cyclones may be associated with periods of locally enhanced sea ice loss during the summer, and some studies have found that an intense cyclone in August 2012 resulted a rapid retreat. This study uses coupled atmosphere‐ocean‐ice model (Navy‐ESPC) to explore relationship between short‐term melting. There are two mechanisms cyclone‐induced melting Navy‐ESPC: turbulent mixing warm layer located at 15‐ 35‐m depth increases bottom air advection by strong surface winds Although...
Abstract This paper illustrates that analysis corrections, when applied as a model tendency term, can be used to improve nonlinear forecasts and are consistent with the hypothesis they represent an additive 6-h accumulation of error. Comparison mean corrections observational estimates bias further fidelity which capture bias. While most previous implementations have explored use correct forecast biases in short-range forecasts, this is first implementation correction method using both...
CR Climate Research Contact the journal Facebook Twitter RSS Mailing List Subscribe to our mailing list via Mailchimp HomeLatest VolumeAbout JournalEditorsSpecials 54:69-84 (2012) - DOI: https://doi.org/10.3354/cr01101 Response of clouds and surface energy fluxes changes in sea-ice cover over Laptev Sea (Arctic Ocean) Neil P. Barton1,*, Dana E. Veron2 1Program for Model Diagnosis Intercomparison, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, California 94551, USA 2College Earth, Ocean,...
Abstract Twin 5-month seasonal forecast experiments are performed to predict the September 2018 mean and minimum ice extent using fully coupled Navy Earth System Prediction Capability (ESPC). In control run, ensemble forecasts initialized from operational US Global Ocean Forecasting (GOFS) 3.1 but do not assimilate thickness data. Another set of same GOFS fields with sea derived CryoSat-2 (CS2). The ESPC was over-predicted by 0.68 M km 2 (5.27 ) vs CS2 that had an error 0.40 (4.99 ), a 43%...
Abstract The representation of Arctic surface radiative fluxes in atmospheric models and reanalyses is integral to understanding relevant physical processes, yet testing these confounded by a scarcity situ observations near‐surface state profiles, cloud vertical structure, phase, properties. Here, airborne measurements obtained from the Radiation IceBridge Sea&Ice Experiment (ARISE) during fall 2014 are compared with concurrent products Modern‐Era Retrospective analysis for Research...
Abstract Patterns of correlations between the ocean and atmosphere are examined using a high-resolution (1/12° ice, 1/3° atmosphere) ensemble data assimilative, coupled, global, ocean–atmosphere forecasts. This provides unique perspective into atmosphere–ocean interactions constrained by assimilated observations, allowing for contrast patterns coupled processes across regions examination affected mesoscale eddies. Correlations during first 24 h forecast surface temperature atmospheric...
We examined historical winter-season relationships among precipitation across the western United States, northern Pacific jet stream (NPJ) Ocean basin, and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon to determine if NPJ significantly adds existing ENSO-based understanding of inter-annual variability in precipitation. The results indicate that is related winter a much larger area States than ENSO signal. For areas where signal precipitation, there generally exists stronger or more...
Abstract High-fidelity analyses and forecasts of integrated vapor transport (VT) are central to the study Earth’s hydrological cycle as well high-impact phenomena such monsoons atmospheric rivers. The impact in-line analysis correction-based additive inflation (ACAI) on IVT biases forecast errors is examined within Navy Earth System Prediction Capability (Navy ESPC) global coupled system. ACAI technique uses corrections from data assimilation system approximate model bias a representation...
Abstract Observations from uncrewed surface vehicles (saildrones) in the Bering, Chukchi, and Beaufort Seas during June – September 2019 were used to evaluate initial conditions forecasts with lead times up 10 days produced by eight operational numerical weather prediction centers. Prediction error behaviors pressure wind are found be different those temperature humidity. For example, errors small short-range (<6 days) forecasts, but they grew rapidly increasing time beyond 6 days....
Ongoing efforts at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Weather Service (NWS) are aimed increasing realism of physical processes represented in both global regional operational numerical weather prediction systems. These include enhancing description atmospheric composition its impact on atmosphere by incorporating prognostic aerosols aerosol radiative feedback each member NOAA Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS).Modern Earth system prototypes, built upon...