A5031865389- Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research
- Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
- Climate variability and models
- Ocean Waves and Remote Sensing
- Oceanographic and Atmospheric Processes
- Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics
- Arctic and Antarctic ice dynamics
- Methane Hydrates and Related Phenomena
- Climate change and permafrost
- Ionosphere and magnetosphere dynamics
- GNSS positioning and interference
- Precipitation Measurement and Analysis
- Spacecraft and Cryogenic Technologies
- Atmospheric aerosols and clouds
- Coastal and Marine Dynamics
- Geological and Geophysical Studies
- Cryospheric studies and observations
NOAA National Weather Service
2024
Office of Science
2024
United States Naval Research Laboratory
2016-2021
Cherokee Nation
2017
Monterey Institute for Technology and Education
2015
National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine
2015
University of Miami
2010-2014
NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratories
2012
Abstract Tropical cyclone (TC) outflow and its relationship to TC intensity change structure were investigated in the Office of Naval Research Cyclone Intensity (TCI) field program during 2015 using dropsondes deployed from innovative new High-Definition Sounding System (HDSS) remotely sensed observations Hurricane Imaging Radiometer (HIRAD), both on board NASA WB-57 that flew lower stratosphere. Three noteworthy hurricanes intensively observed with unprecedented horizontal resolution:...
Abstract Composite dropsonde profiles are analyzed for developing and nondeveloping tropical waves in an attempt to improve the understanding of cyclogenesis. These were sampled by 25 reconnaissance missions during 2010 Pre-Depression Investigation Cloud-Systems Tropics (PREDICT) field campaign. Comparisons made between mean temperature, mixing ratio, relative humidity, radial tangential winds, vorticity, virtual convective available potential energy (CAPE) genesis nongenesis cases. Genesis...
Abstract Dropsonde data collected during the NASA Hurricane and Severe Storm Sentinel (HS3) field campaign from 16 research missions spanning 6 tropical cyclones (TCs) are investigated, with an emphasis on TC outflow warm core. The Global Hawk (GH) AV-6 aircraft provided a unique opportunity to investigate characteristics due combination of 18+-h flight durations ability release dropsondes high altitudes above 100 hPa. Intensifying TCs found be associated stronger upper-level divergence...
Abstract Drifting buoy observations of ocean surface waves in hurricanes are combined with modeled wind speeds. The include targeted aerial deployments into Hurricane Ian (2022) and opportunistic measurements from the Sofar Ocean Spotter global network Fiona (2022). Analysis focuses on slope waves, as quantified by spectral mean square slope. At low‐to‐moderate speeds (<15 m s −1 ), slopes increase linearly speed. higher winds (>15 continue to increase, but at a reduced rate. extreme...
Abstract The interaction between a tropical cyclone (TC) and an upper-level trough is simulated in idealized framework using Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS) for Tropical Cyclones (COAMPS-TC) on β plane. We explore the effect of environment, structure, intensity TC. In simulation that does not have trough, environmental inertial stability dominated by Coriolis, outflow remains preferentially directed equatorward throughout simulation. presence negative...
Abstract The response of Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model predictions two tropical cyclones to perturbations in the initial conditions is investigated. Local vorticity field synoptic environment are created features considered subjectively be importance track forecast. rebalanced analysis then integrated forward compared with an unperturbed “control” simulation possessing similar errors those corresponding operational forecasts. In first case, Typhoon Sinlaku (2008), premature...
Abstract Several metrics are employed to evaluate predictive skill and attempt quantify predictability using the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System during 2010 Atlantic hurricane season, with an emphasis on large-scale variables relevant tropical cyclogenesis. These include following: 1) growth saturation of error, 2) errors versus climatology, 3) predicted forecast error standard deviation, 4) power. Overall, that more directly related large-scale, slowly varying phenomena found be much...
Abstract Arctic cyclones may be associated with periods of locally enhanced sea ice loss during the summer, and some studies have found that an intense cyclone in August 2012 resulted a rapid retreat. This study uses coupled atmosphere‐ocean‐ice model (Navy‐ESPC) to explore relationship between short‐term melting. There are two mechanisms cyclone‐induced melting Navy‐ESPC: turbulent mixing warm layer located at 15‐ 35‐m depth increases bottom air advection by strong surface winds Although...
Abstract Although tropical cyclone track forecast errors have substantially decreased in recent decades, there are still cases each season with large uncertainties the forecasts and/or very errors. As such challenging for forecasters, it is important to understand mechanisms behind low predictability. For this purpose research community has developed a number of tools. These tools include ensemble and adjoint sensitivity models, perturbation experiments nudging experiments. In report we...
Abstract The 11-member Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System-Tropical Cyclones (COAMPS-TC) ensemble has been developed by the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) to produce probabilistic forecasts of tropical cyclone (TC) track, intensity and structure. All members run with a storm-following inner grid at convection-permitting 4-km horizontal resolution. COAMPS-TC is constructed via combination perturbations initial boundary conditions, vortex, model physics account for variety...
The Pre-Depression Investigation of Cloud-systems in the Tropics (PREDICT) field experiment successfully gathered data from four developing and decaying/nondeveloping tropical disturbances over North Atlantic basin between 15 August 30 September 2010. invaluable roles played by early career scientists (ECSs) throughout campaign helped make possible successful execution program's mission to investigate cyclone formation. ECSs provided critical meteorological information— often obtained novel...
Abstract An array of surface drifters deployed ahead Hurricane Michael measured the temperature, pressure, directional wind and wave spectra, currents one day before it made landfall as a Category 5 Hurricane. The drifters, 25–50 km apart, spanned two counter‐rotating ocean eddies rapidly intensified. shift energy between frequency bands in each quadrant storm, response upper currents, resulting cold wake following Michael's passage. Wave was greatest front quadrants decreased left‐rear...
Abstract The predictability of selected variables associated with tropical cyclogenesis is examined using 10-day ECMWF ensemble forecasts for 21 events from the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season. Variables are strength pregenesis disturbance, quantified via circulation and thickness anomaly, favorability immediate environment moisture vertical wind shear. For approximately half cases, predicted genesis signal directly related to environment. remainder more location analyzed disturbance. Some...
Abstract Accurately simulating the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO), which dominates intraseasonal (30–90 day) variability in tropics, is critical to predicting tropical cyclones (TCs) and other phenomena at extended-range (2–3 week) time scales. MJO biases intensity propagation speed are a common problem global coupled models. For example, Navy Earth System Prediction Capability (ESPC), model, has been shown be too strong fast, implications for MJO–TC relationship that model. The prediction...
Abstract As tropical cyclone (TC) official and model track forecasts improve, cases still exist where position errors uncertainty are large. The goal of this study is to identify forecast bifurcations in both the Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System–tropical (COAMPS-TC) ensemble Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS), with subsequent analyses focusing on comparison synoptic environments bifurcating between ensembles. Thirty-three identified COAMPS-TC ensemble, while 38 GEFS...
In the 2023 hurricane season, Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS) based Ensemble Prediction (EPS) was being ported to Amazon Web Service cloud. This relocation aimed provide real-time probabilistic forecast guidance for National Center (NHC) forecasters. The system comprises Stochastically Perturbed Physics Tendencies (SPPT), Kinetic Energy Backscatter (SKEB), PBL Humidity (SHUM). Initial boundary conditions are derived from Centers Environmental (NCEP) operational Global (GEFS)...
Abstract Given the prohibitive expense of running a global coupled high-resolution model for multiweek forecasts, we explore feasibility limited-area forced by on monthly time scales. Specifically, seek to understand constraints accuracy lateral boundary conditions (LBCs) produced NAVGEM skill COAMPS forecasts. In this study, analyze simulations successive MJO events November 2011. simulations, effect ocean are examined, including fixed sea surface temperature (SST), observed SST, and SST...
Abstract Despite improvements in predicting the track and intensity of tropical cyclones (TCs), these storms with major societal economic impacts continue to pose challenges for statically provisioned computational resources. The number active varies from day day, leading regular bursts irregular loads atop an already busy production schedule weather prediction centers. emergence high-resolution ensemble TC quantify uncertainty exacerbates this problem by requiring multiple forecasts run...