Abstract Precipitation extremes are increasing globally due to anthropogenic climate change. However, there remains uncertainty regarding impacts upon flood occurrence and subsequent population exposure. Here, we quantify changes in exposure hazard across the contiguous United States. We combine simulations from a model large ensemble high‐resolution hydrodynamic model—allowing us directly assess wide range of extreme precipitation magnitudes accumulation timescales. report mean increase...

Empirical studies and habitat suitability modeling project significant shifts in species distributions response to climate change. Because fragmentation can impede range shifts, wildlife corridors may have increasing importance enhancing resilience for persistence. While connectivity has been studied over four decades, the design of specifically facilitate movement change is a relatively new challenge. We conducted systematic review 116 relevant papers from 1996–2017. Research focused on...

Motivated by declines in biodiversity exacerbated climate change, we identified a network of conservation sites designed to provide resilient habitat for species, while supporting dynamic shifts ranges and changes ecosystem composition. Our 12-y study involved 289 scientists 14 regions across the conterminous United States (CONUS), our intent was support local-, regional-, national-scale decisions. To ensure that represented all species ecosystems, stratified CONUS into 68 ecoregions, and,...

Ecosystem services play a crucial role in sustaining human well-being and economic viability. People benefit substantially from the delivery of ecosystem services, for which substitutes usually are costly or unavailable. Climate change will alter eliminate certain future. To better understand consequences climate to develop effective means adapting them, it is critical that we improve our understanding links between climate, service production, economy. This study examines impact on...

Water shortages in California are a growing concern amidst ongoing drought, earlier spring snowmelt, projected future climate warming, and currently mandated water use restrictions. Increases population land coming decades will place additional pressure on already limited available supplies. We used state-and-transition simulation model to project changes developed (municipal industrial) agricultural estimate associated demand from 2012 2062. Under current efficiency rates, total was...

Abstract A growing number of jurisdictions are passing ambitious clean energy policies. Yet few studies have accounted for natural and agricultural land impacts low-carbon pathways how environmental siting constraints affect electricity costs technology choices. To address this gap, we developed an integrated land-energy planning framework to examine the use trade-offs renewable development required achieve goals, using state California as a case study. Using high-resolution ecological...

Natural climate solutions (NCS) are recognized as an important tool for governments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and remove atmospheric carbon dioxide. Using California a globally relevant reference, we evaluate the magnitude of biological mitigation potential from NCS starting in 2020 under four change scenarios. By mid-century implementation leads large increase net stored, flipping state source sink two Forest conservation land management strategies make up 85% all reductions by...

Modeling efforts focused on future greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from energy and other sectors in California have shown varying capacities to meet the reduction targets established by state. These not included potential reductions changes ecosystem management, restoration, conservation. We examine scale of contributions selected activities natural agricultural lands assess degree which these actions could help state achieve its 2030 2050 climate mitigation goals under alternative...

Abstract Terrestrial ecosystems are an important sink for atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), sequestering ~30% of annual anthropogenic emissions and slowing the rise CO . However, future direction magnitude land is highly uncertain. We examined how historical projected changes in climate, use, ecosystem disturbances affect balance terrestrial California over period 2001–2100. modeled 32 unique scenarios, spanning 4 use radiative forcing scenarios as simulated by four global climate models....

As both plant and animal species shift their ranges in response to a changing climate, maintaining connectivity between present habitat suitable the future will become increasingly important ensure lasting protection for biodiversity. Because temporal period commensurate with planning mid-century change is multi-generational most species, designed facilitate climate adaptation requires pathways 'stepping-stones' current habitat. These areas should have habitats not only dispersal, but all...

Conservation planners use several methods to select conservation target areas. These include the of umbrella species for large area requirements, site-specific locations important biodiversity elements, and indications ecosystem health. We tested adequacy using an represent finer-scale elements on 45,205 km2 central coast California. A network core linkages mountain lion (Puma concolor [Kerr]) was developed 22,069 km2, or 49% region, selected. analyzed representation a variety elements. The...

Abstract Protecting or restoring habitat connectivity in landscapes undergoing rapid environmental change requires multiple conservation and restoration strategies. These strategies have different risk profiles, costs, require various types of technical expertise to conduct. This diversity landscape context strategic approach more nuance flexibility than traditional plans supported. We present a novel, spatially‐explicit framework for developing priorities based on Omniscape, an adaptation...

Climate change will increase the vulnerability of species across globe to population loss and extinction. In order develop conservation strategies facilitate adaptation this change, managers must understand habitats they are trying manage. For most biodiversity managers, conducting assessments for all manage would be prohibitively costly, time consuming, potentially misleading since some data required does not yet exist. We present a rapid cost-effective method estimate climate impacts broad...

Abstract: Conservation of biologically diverse regions has thus far been accomplished largely through the establishment and maintenance protected areas. Climate change is expected to shift climate space many species outside existing reserve boundaries. We used climate‐envelope models examine shifts in 11 that are representative Mount Hamilton Project area (MHPA) (California, U.S.A.), which includes areas within Alameda, Santa Clara, San Joaquin, Stanislaus, Merced, Benito counties state's...

With growing demand and highly variable inter-annual water supplies, California's use future is fraught with uncertainty. Climate change projections, anticipated population growth, continued agricultural intensification, will likely stress existing supplies in coming decades. Using a state-and-transition simulation modeling approach, we examine broad suite of spatially explicit land scenarios their associated county-level out to 2062. We examined range potential futures sampled from 20-year...

Human land use will increasingly contribute to habitat loss and water shortages in California, given future population projections associated land-use demand. Understanding how change may impact where existing protected areas be threatened by conversion important if effective, sustainable management approaches are implemented. We used a state-and-transition simulation modeling (STSM) framework simulate spatially-explicit (1 km²) historical (1992-2010) (2011-2060) for 52 California...

Abstract In response to biodiversity declines worldwide, over 190 nations committed protect 30% of their lands and waters by 2030 (hereafter, 30×30). Systematic conservation planning return on investment analysis can be helpful tools for determining where protection efforts could deliver the most efficient effective reserve design, supporting decision‐making when trade‐offs among objectives are required. Here, we propose a framework “30×30” implementation apply it state California (USA)....

Management of protected lands may enhance ecosystem services that conservation programs were designed to protect. Practices build soil organic matter on agricultural also increase water holding capacity, potentially reducing climatic deficit (CWD), increasing actual evapotranspiration (AET) and groundwater recharge (RCH). We developed nine spatially-explicit land use scenarios (2001–2100) in the LUCAS change model address two questions for California working (cropland rangeland): How does...