A5088563426- Species Distribution and Climate Change
- Conservation, Biodiversity, and Resource Management
- Ecology and Vegetation Dynamics Studies
- Land Use and Ecosystem Services
- Wildlife Ecology and Conservation
- Plant and animal studies
- Forest Management and Policy
- Rangeland Management and Livestock Ecology
- Economic and Environmental Valuation
- Climate variability and models
- Organic Food and Agriculture
- Plant Water Relations and Carbon Dynamics
- Horticultural and Viticultural Research
- Climate change impacts on agriculture
- Sustainability and Climate Change Governance
- Coffee research and impacts
- Remote Sensing and LiDAR Applications
- Invertebrate Taxonomy and Ecology
- Forest ecology and management
- Wildlife-Road Interactions and Conservation
- Environmental Conservation and Management
- Genetic diversity and population structure
- Peatlands and Wetlands Ecology
- Forest Ecology and Biodiversity Studies
- Marine and environmental studies
Conservation International
2017-2025
University of California, Santa Barbara
2011-2019
Climate change is expected to impact ecosystems directly, such as through shifting climatic controls on species ranges, and indirectly, for example changes in human land use that may result habitat loss. Shifting patterns of agricultural production response climate have received little attention a potential pathway ecosystems. Wine grape provides good test case measuring indirect impacts mediated by agriculture, because viticulture sensitive concentrated Mediterranean regions are global...
Investments to prevent tropical deforestation and limit wildlife trade will protect against future zoonosis outbreaks
A key feature of life's diversity is that some species are common but many more rare. Nonetheless, at global scales, we do not know what fraction biodiversity consists rare species. Here, present the largest compilation plant to quantify Earth's large fraction, ~36.5% ~435,000 species, exceedingly Sampling biases and prominent models, such as neutral theory k-niche model, cannot account for observed prevalence rarity. Our results indicate (i) climatically stable regions have harbored hence a...
The lives lost and economic costs of viral zoonotic pandemics have steadily increased over the past century. Prominent policymakers promoted plans that argue best ways to address future pandemic catastrophes should entail, “detecting containing emerging threats.” In other words, we take actions only after humans get sick. We sharply disagree. Humans extensive contact with wildlife known harbor vast numbers viruses, many which not yet spilled into humans. compute annualized damages from...
Limiting climate change to less than 2°C is the focus of international policy under convention (UNFCCC), and essential preventing extinctions, a Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD). The post‐2020 biodiversity framework drafted by CBD proposes conserving 30% both land oceans 2030. However, combined impact extinction risk species from limiting increasing extent protected conserved areas has not been assessed. Here we create conservation spatial plans minimize in tropics using data 289 219...
Abstract Avoiding catastrophic climate change requires rapid decarbonization and improved ecosystem stewardship at a planetary scale. The carbon released through the burning of fossil fuels would take millennia to regenerate on Earth. Though timeframe recovery for ecosystems such as peatlands, mangroves old-growth forests is shorter (centuries), this still exceeds time we have remaining avoid worst impacts global warming. There are some natural places that cannot afford lose due their...
Abstract Sustaining the organisms, ecosystems and processes that underpin human wellbeing is necessary to achieve sustainable development. Here we define critical natural assets as semi-natural provide 90% of total current magnitude 14 types nature’s contributions people (NCP), map global locations these at 2 km resolution. Critical for maintaining local-scale NCP (12 NCP) account 30% land area 24% national territorial waters, while 44% required also maintain two global-scale (carbon storage...
Forests play a critical role in stabilizing Earth's climate. Establishing protected areas (PAs) represents one approach to forest conservation, but PAs were rarely created mitigate climate change. The global impact of on the carbon cycle has not previously been quantified due lack accurate global-scale stock maps. Here we used ~412 million lidar samples from NASA's GEDI mission estimate total PA aboveground (C) 61.43 Gt (+/- 0.31), 26% all mapped terrestrial woody C. Of this total, 9.65 + /-...
Abstract Meeting global commitments to conservation, climate, and sustainable development requires consideration of synergies tradeoffs among targets. We evaluate the spatial congruence ecosystems providing globally high levels nature’s contributions people, biodiversity, areas with potential across several sectors. find that conserving approximately half land area through protection or management could provide 90% current ten people meet minimum representation targets for 26,709 terrestrial...
Growing conditions for crops such as coffee and wine grapes are shifting to track climate change. Research on these crop responses has focused principally impacts food production impacts, but evidence is emerging that they may have serious environmental consequences well. Recent research documented potential of cropping patterns, including water, wildlife, pollinator interaction, carbon storage nature conservation, national global scales. Multiple will be moving in response climatic...
Abstract Climate change research often relies on downscaled general circulation models (GCM), projections of future scenarios that are used to build ecological and evolutionary models. With more than 35 different GCMs widely available at a resolution 10 km finer, standardized methods understand the differences among GCM in region interest choose which use for analysis essential maximize relevance policy assure proper treatment uncertainty. To help researchers policymakers select form range...
Ecosystem services play a crucial role in sustaining human well-being and economic viability. People benefit substantially from the delivery of ecosystem services, for which substitutes usually are costly or unavailable. Climate change will alter eliminate certain future. To better understand consequences climate to develop effective means adapting them, it is critical that we improve our understanding links between climate, service production, economy. This study examines impact on...
Significance Coffee production supports the livelihoods of millions smallholder farmers around world, and bees provide coffee farms with pollination. Climate change will modify bee distributions, thus production. We modeled impacts for largest coffee-growing region, Latin America, under global warming scenarios. Although we found reduced suitability species diversity more than one-third future coffee-suitable areas, all areas potentially host at least five species, indicating continued...
New Guinea is the most biologically and linguistically diverse tropical island on Earth, yet potential impacts of climate change its biocultural heritage remain unknown. Analyzing 2353 endemic plant species distributions, we find that 63% are expected to have smaller geographic ranges by 2070. As a result, ecoregions may an average -70 ± 40 fewer Species with future range contractions include 720 used indigenous people, these will decrease in 80% Guinea's 1030 language areas, losses up 94...
Abstract Protected areas are a key instrument for conservation. Despite this, they vulnerable to risks associated with weak governance, land‐use intensification, and climate change. We used novel hierarchical optimization approach identify priority expanding the global protected area system that explicitly accounted such while maximizing protection of all known terrestrial vertebrate species. To incorporate risk categories, we built on minimum set problem, where objective is reach species...
Human–wildlife conflict is an important factor in the modern biodiversity crisis and has negative effects on both humans wildlife (such as property destruction, injury, or death) that can impede conservation efforts for threatened species. Effectively addressing requires understanding of where it likely to occur, particularly climate change shifts ranges human activities globally. Here, we examine how projected cropland density, population climatic suitability—three key drivers...
International policy is placing increasing emphasis on adaptation to climate change, including the allocation of new funds assist efforts. Climate change funding may be most effective where it meets integrated goals, but global geographic priorities based multiple development and ecological criteria are not well characterized. Here we show that human natural needs related maintaining agricultural productivity ecosystem integrity intersect in ten major areas globally, providing a coherent set...
Abstract Droughts are a natural hazard of growing concern as they projected to increase in frequency and severity for many regions the world. The identification droughts their future characteristics is essential building an understanding geography magnitude potential drought change trajectories, which turn critical information manage resilience across multiple sectors disciplines. Adding this effort, we developed dataset global historical indices over 1980–2100 period based on downscaled...