A5049523101- Ecosystem dynamics and resilience
- Fermentation and Sensory Analysis
- Climate variability and models
- Land Use and Ecosystem Services
- Fungal and yeast genetics research
- Horticultural and Viticultural Research
- Geology and Paleoclimatology Research
- Global Energy and Sustainability Research
- Climate Change and Health Impacts
- Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics
- Fire effects on ecosystems
- Geochemistry and Geologic Mapping
- Innovation Diffusion and Forecasting
- Meat and Animal Product Quality
- Peatlands and Wetlands Ecology
- Electric Vehicles and Infrastructure
- Sustainability and Ecological Systems Analysis
- Complex Systems and Time Series Analysis
- Conservation, Biodiversity, and Resource Management
- Online Learning and Analytics
- Anomaly Detection Techniques and Applications
- Food Quality and Safety Studies
- Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
- Yeasts and Rust Fungi Studies
- Rangeland Management and Livestock Ecology
University of Exeter
2015-2025
National Research Institute of Brewing
2018-2021
Met Office
2013
Loughborough University
2008-2012
University of Nottingham
2008-2012
CoorsTek (United Kingdom)
2006
Abstract The resilience of the Amazon rainforest to climate and land-use change is crucial for biodiversity, regional global carbon cycle. Deforestation change, via increasing dry-season length drought frequency, may already have pushed close a critical threshold dieback. Here, we quantify changes by applying established indicators (for example, measuring lag-1 autocorrelation) remotely sensed vegetation data with focus on optical depth (1991–2016). We find that more than three-quarters has...
Potential climate tipping points pose a growing risk for societies, and policy is calling improved anticipation of them. Satellite remote sensing can play unique role in identifying anticipating phenomena across scales. Where satellite records are too short temporal early warning points, complementary spatial indicators leverage the exceptional spatial-temporal coverage remotely sensed data to detect changing resilience vulnerable systems. Combining Earth observation with system models...
Student engagement is an important factor for learning outcomes in higher education. Engagement with at campus-based education institutions difficult to quantify due the variety of forms that might take (e.g. lecture attendance, self-study, usage online/digital systems). Meanwhile, there are increasing concerns about student wellbeing within education, but relationship between and not well understood. Here we analyse results from a longitudinal survey undergraduate students university UK,...
"Social sensing" is a form of crowd-sourcing that involves systematic analysis digital communications to detect real-world events. Here we consider the use social sensing for observing natural hazards. In particular, present case study uses data from popular media platform (Twitter) and locate flood events in UK. order improve quality apply number filters (timezone, simple text naive Bayes `relevance' filter) data. We then place names user profile message infer location tweets. These two...
In this study, we analyse the relationship between engagement in a virtual learning environment (VLE) and module grades at 'bricks-and-mortar' university United Kingdom. We measure VLE activity for students enrolled 38 different credit-bearing modules, each of which are compulsory components six degree programmes. Overall find that high is associated with grades, but low does not necessarily imply grades. Analysis individual modules shows wide range relationships two quantities. Grouping...
Abstract We characterized > 150 countries’ resilience to COVID-19 as the nationwide decay rate of daily cases or deaths from peak levels. Resilience varies by a factor ~ 40 between countries for cases/capita and 25 deaths/capita. Trust within society is positively correlated with country-level COVID-19, adaptive increase in stringency government interventions when epidemic waves occur. By contrast, where governments maintain greater background tend have lower trust be less resilient. All...
Abstract. Tipping points characterize the situation when a system experiences abrupt, rapid, and sometimes irreversible changes in response to only gradual change environmental conditions. Given that such events are most cases undesirable, numerous approaches have been proposed identify if is approaching tipping point. Such termed early warning signals represent set of methods for identifying statistical underlying behaviour across time or space would be indicative an Although idea warnings...
Abstract The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) exhibits two stable states in models of varying complexity. Shifts between alternative AMOC are thought to have played a role past abrupt climate changes, but the proximity system threshold for future collapse is unknown. Generic early warning signals critical slowing down before been found low and intermediate Here we show that present fully coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model, subject freshwater hosing...
Eukaryotic phytoplankton are responsible for at least 20% of annual global carbon fixation. Their diversity and activity shaped by interactions with prokaryotes as part complex microbiomes. Although differences in their local species have been estimated, we still a limited understanding environmental conditions compositional between communities on large scale from pole to pole. Here, show, based pole-to-pole metatranscriptomes microbial rDNA sequencing, that polar non-polar upper oceans most...
Abstract. Many widely used observational data sets are comprised of several overlapping instrument records. While inter-calibration techniques often yield continuous and reliable for trend analysis, less attention is generally paid to maintaining higher-order statistics such as variance autocorrelation. A growing body work uses these metrics quantify the stability or resilience a system under study potentially anticipate an approaching critical transition in system. Exploring degree which...
Methods for detecting and tracking natural hazards continue to increase in coverage, resolution reliability. However, information on the social impacts of is often lacking. Here we test feasibility using media data (Twitter Instagram) detect map an important class hazard: wildfires. We analyse posts associated with wildfires over several time periods compare them wildfire occurrence derived from satellite-based remote sensing on-the-ground observations. For whole contiguous United States,...
Abstract Many scenarios for limiting global warming to 1.5°C assume planetary‐scale carbon dioxide removal sufficient exceed anthropogenic emissions, resulting in radiative forcing falling and temperatures stabilizing. However, such technology may prove unfeasible technical, environmental, political, or economic reasons, continuing greenhouse gas emissions from hard‐to‐mitigate sectors. This lead constant concentration scenarios, where net remain non‐zero but small, are roughly balanced by...
Abstract Amidst the ongoing climate crisis, need for observation‐based prediction of environmental tipping points becomes increasingly urgent. Detecting loss resilience within a system can provide early warnings points. This requires long, regularly spaced time‐series, characteristics that are rare among marine observational and proxy records. Due to their remarkable length temporal resolution, records from bivalve shells offer unique opportunity assessing in environment. Here, we...
Abstract. The use of early warning signals to detect the movement natural systems towards tipping points is well established. Here, we explore whether same indicators can provide opportunity (EOSs) a point in social dataset: views online electric vehicle (EV) adverts from UK car-selling website (2018–2023). daily share EV advert (versus non-EV adverts) small but increasing overall and responds specific external events, including abrupt petrol/diesel price increases, by spiking upwards before...
Abstract Context: Forest structure is key to understanding the resilience of tropical forests (their ability recover from disturbance) and predicting how these ecosystems will respond future environmental climatic fluctuations. Current studies in Amazon rely on passive active remote sensing forest cover metrics that offer limited insight into nuanced canopy structural changes associated with degradation. The Global Ecosystem Dynamics Investigation (GEDI) spaceborne lidar provides detailed...
We test proposed generic tipping point early warning signals in a complex climate model (HadCM3) which simulates future dieback of the Amazon rainforest. The equation governing tree cover suggests that zero and non-zero stable states co-exist, transcritical bifurcation is approached as productivity declines. Forest non-linear change state, declines, should exhibit critical slowing down. use an ensemble versions HadCM3 to for corresponding signals. However, on approaching simulated dieback,...
Significance Sea surface temperature (SST) variations in the North Pacific have triggered past abrupt changes fisheries and other ecosystems. We discovered that over last century, fluctuations of SSTs become less frequent longer-lived. This “reddening” behavior can also be seen dominant pattern climate variability region, known as Decadal Oscillation index. fundamental change has important implications for ecosystems region. It implies prone to undergoing larger climate-triggered shifts....
<ns4:p>Nestedness is a statistical measure used to interpret bipartite interaction data in several ecological and evolutionary contexts, e.g. biogeography (species-site relationships) species interactions (plant-pollinator host-parasite networks). Multiple methods have been evaluate nestedness, which differ how the metrics for nestedness are determined. Furthermore, different null models calculate significance of scores. The profusion measures models, many give conflicting results,...
Abstract The fermentable carbohydrate composition of wort and the manner in which it is utilized by yeast during brewery fermentation have a direct influence on efficiency quality final product. In this study response brewing strain to changes concentration full‐scale (3275 hl) was investigated measuring transcriptome with aid oligonucleotide‐based DNA arrays. Up 74% detectable genes showed significant ( p ⩽0.01) differential expression pattern majority these transient or prolonged peaks...
Abstract. We compare future changes in global mean temperature response to different scenarios which, for the first time, arise from emission-driven rather than concentration-driven perturbed parameter ensemble of a climate model (GCM). These new GCM simulations sample uncertainties atmospheric feedbacks, land carbon cycle, ocean physics and aerosol sulphur cycle processes. find broader ranges projected responses arising when considering emission (with 10–90th percentile 1.7 K aggressive...