Abstract The intraseasonal variability of SST associated with the passage Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) is well documented; yet coupled model integrations generally underpredict magnitude this variability. Observations from Improved Meteorological Instrument (IMET) mooring in western Pacific during intensive observing period (IOP) Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere Response Experiment (TOGA COARE) showed a large diurnal signal that modulated by MJO. In study,...

Abstract High impact weather events such as extreme temperatures or rainfall can cause significant disruption across the UK affecting sectors health, transport, agriculture and energy. In this study we draw on latest set of climate projections, UKCP, to examine metrics relating high-impact over how these change with different levels future global warming from 1.5 °C 4 above pre-industrial. The changes hazards show increases in frequency extremely hot days nights, a average increase between 5...

This study explores the critical notion of how feasible it is to achieve long-term mitigation goals limit global temperature change. It uses a model inter-comparison three integrated assessment models (TIAM-Grantham, MESSAGE-GLOBIOM and WITCH) harmonized for socio-economic growth drivers using one new shared pathways (SSP2), analyse multiple scenarios aimed at different changes in 2100, order assess outputs against range indicators developed so as systematically compare feasibility across...

Abstract This paper presents an evaluation of the global and regional consequences climate change for heat extremes, water resources, river coastal flooding, droughts, agriculture energy use. It in hazard resource base under different rates (representative concentration pathways (RCP)), socio-economic impacts are estimated each combination RCP shared socioeconomic pathway. Uncertainty pattern is characterised by CMIP5 model projections. The analysis adopts a novel approach using...

[1] Measurements made by the Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) and Advanced (AMSU) provide a multidecadal record of global atmospheric temperature change, which have been used several groups to produce long-term records thick layers atmosphere from lower troposphere stratosphere. Here we present an internal uncertainty estimate for Remote Sensing Systems data sets using Monte Carlo approach that includes contributions total sampling error, premerge adjustments each individual satellite, merging...

Abstract. Most future projections forecast significant and ongoing climate change during the 21st century, but with severity of impacts dependent on efforts to restrain or reorganise human activity limit carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. A major sink for atmospheric CO2, a key source biological resources, World Ocean is widely anticipated undergo profound physical – via ocean acidification chemical changes as direct indirect results these Given strong biophysical coupling, marine biota also...

Limiting cumulative carbon emissions to keep global temperature increase well below 2 °C (and as low 1.5 °C) is an extremely challenging task, requiring rapid reduction in the intensity of all sectors economy and with limited leeway for residual emissions. Addressing ‘challenging-to-decarbonise’ such industrial aviation relies on development commercialization innovative advanced technologies, currently still their infancy. The aim this study was (a) explore role technologies achieving deep...

The scenarios generated by energy systems models provide a picture of the range possible pathways to low-carbon future. However, in order be truly useful, these should not only but also plausible. In this paper, we have used lessons from historical transitions create set diagnostic tests assess feasibility an example 2 °C scenario (generated using least cost optimization model, TIAM-Grantham). key assessment criteria included rate deployment low carbon technologies and transition between...

Climate change adaptation decisions often require the consideration of risk rather than environmental hazard alone. One approach for quantifying is to use a assessment framework which combines information about hazard, exposure and vulnerability estimate in spatially consistent way. In recent years, publicly available, open-source frameworks have been made including CLIMADA platform. Such tools are increasingly being used combination with ensembles climate model projections quantify on...

Abstract When local extreme water levels surpass defences, the consequences can be devastating. We assess importance of sea-level rise and future weather pattern changes on UK coastal flood impacts. Historical classifications are matched with observed skew surges significant wave heights. Coastal-risk patterns then defined as ≥ 1% events in distribution exceeding warning threshold. combine this methodology projections frequency occurrences, to determine relative each risk. A deep...

A number of studies have examined the size allowable global cumulative carbon budget compatible with limiting twenty-first century average temperature rise to below 2°C and 1.5°C relative pre-industrial levels. These estimates emissions a uncertainties including those associated climate sensitivity cycle. Although IPCC fifth assessment report contained information on range Earth system feedbacks, such as released by thawing permafrost or methane production wetlands result change, impact many...

Anthropogenic aerosols could dominate over greenhouse gases in driving near-term hydroclimate change, especially regions with high present-day aerosol loading such as Asia. Uncertainties near-future emissions represent a potentially large, yet unexplored, source of ambiguity climate projections for the coming decades. We investigated sensitivity Asian summer monsoon to by means transient modelling experiments using HadGEM2-ES under two existing change mitigation scenarios selected have...

Abstract. We compare future changes in global mean temperature response to different scenarios which, for the first time, arise from emission-driven rather than concentration-driven perturbed parameter ensemble of a climate model (GCM). These new GCM simulations sample uncertainties atmospheric feedbacks, land carbon cycle, ocean physics and aerosol sulphur cycle processes. find broader ranges projected responses arising when considering emission (with 10–90th percentile 1.7 K aggressive...

Abstract Past changes in global industrial aerosol emissions have played a significant role historical shifts African rainfall, and yet assessment of the impact on rainfall near-term (10–40 yr) potential emission pathways remains largely unexplored. While existing literature links future declines to northward shift Sahel climate projections rely RCP scenarios that do not explore range air quality drivers. Here we present from two better envelop emissions. More aggressive cuts result tropical...

Assessments of current and future climate risk are required for adaptation planning to increase resilience enable society cope with hazards. Here we identify case studies compound hazard events interest the UK agricultural sector present a framework comparing frequency duration now those projected in 50 years' time. We use high resolution (12 km) simulations from Climate Projections explore how instances potato blight thermal heat stress dairy cattle may change locally under RCP 8.5...

Abstract Climate change in Brazil is expected to increase the occurrences of heat related conditions hazardous human health. Thresholds environmental leading stress humans are projected be exceeded for long periods year across large parts country. We analyse future changes frequency exceeding thresholds during hottest part day as measured by Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) and using CMIP6 climate projections. that require significant reduction physical activity estimated most northern...

This study quantifies the relative impact on future ocean acidification of different aspects global climate change mitigation policies, such as year that emissions peak, how fast they reduce after their and long term minimum are possible. Relative to a scenario where peak in 2016 then decrease by 1% per year, further reductions 2, 3 4% lead same pH (by 2100) if 10, 15 17 years later respectively. Over time scale, non‐mitigation scenarios mean surface 7.67 7.81. Strong urgent mitigation,...

This paper analyses the emissions and cost impacts of mitigation non-CO2 greenhouse gases (GHGs) at a global level, in scenarios aimed meeting range long-term temperature goals (LTTGs). The study combines an integrated assessment model (TIAM-Grantham) representing CO2 (and their mitigation) from fossil fuel combustion industrial sectors, coupled with covering (GAINS), using latest warming potentials Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Fifth Assessment Report. We illustrate that...

Anthropogenic aerosol emissions are predicted to decline sharply throughout the 21st century, in line with climate change and air quality mitigation policies, causing a near-term warming of that will impact our trajectory towards 1.5 °C above pre-industrial temperatures. However, persistent uncertainty radiative forcing limits understanding how much global mean temperature respond reductions anthropogenic emissions. We quantify model scenario up 2050 using statistical emulation perturbed...

Open-source climate risk assessment platforms allow for accessible and efficient estimation of current future by combining information about hazard, exposure vulnerability. Such assessments require making a number choices, such as which hazard data source to use, the approach taken represent As these choices are, some extent, subjective, when assessing informing adaptation decisions, alternative options should be considered understand uncertainty sensitivity uncertain input assumptions. We...