A5064038071- Climate variability and models
- Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
- Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics
- Climate Change and Geoengineering
- Climate change impacts on agriculture
- Atmospheric Ozone and Climate
- Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research
- Atmospheric aerosols and clouds
- Methane Hydrates and Related Phenomena
- Climate Change Policy and Economics
- Atmospheric chemistry and aerosols
- Geophysics and Gravity Measurements
- Hydrology and Drought Analysis
- Air Quality Monitoring and Forecasting
- Air Quality and Health Impacts
- Solar Radiation and Photovoltaics
- Precipitation Measurement and Analysis
- Climate change and permafrost
- Arctic and Antarctic ice dynamics
- Groundwater flow and contamination studies
- Climate Change and Health Impacts
- Plant responses to elevated CO2
- Space exploration and regulation
- demographic modeling and climate adaptation
- Plant Water Relations and Carbon Dynamics
University of Leeds
2014-2024
National Centre for Atmospheric Science
2016-2023
Central Michigan University
2019-2022
Oklahoma Biological Survey
2022
United States Geological Survey
2022
University of Oklahoma
2022
UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology
2021
Met Office
2021
Institut polytechnique de Grenoble
2021
Institut des Géosciences de l'Environnement
2021
We utilize energy budget diagnostics from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) to evaluate models' climate forcing since preindustrial times employing an established regression technique. The evaluated this way, termed adjusted (AF), includes a rapid adjustment term associated with cloud changes and other tropospheric land‐surface changes. estimate 2010 total anthropogenic natural AF CMIP5 models of 1.9 ± 0.9 W m −2 (5–95% range). projected Representative Concentration...
Abstract Variability of rainfall in East Africa has major impacts on lives and livelihoods. From floods to droughts, this variability is important short daily time‐scales longer decadal time‐scales, as apparent from the devastating effects droughts over recent decades. Past studies have highlighted Congo airmass enhancing African rainfall. Our detailed analysis feature shows that days with a westerly moisture flow, bringing airmass, enhance by up 100% above mean, depending time year....
Abstract Extreme rainfall is expected to increase under climate change, carrying potential socioeconomic risks. However, the magnitude of uncertain. Over recent decades, extreme storms over West African Sahel have increased in frequency, with vertical wind shear shown be a cause. Drier midlevels, stronger cold pools, and storm organization also been observed. Global models do not capture effects lower- midtropospheric or pools on since they parameterize convection. Here we use first...
Stabilizing smallholder crop yields under changing climatic conditions in sub-Saharan Africa will require adaptation strategies focused on soil and water management. Impact studies of climate change often ignore the potential such as rainwater harvesting (RWH). While RWH is bringing benefits to agricultural systems today, it still unclear which regions could increasingly benefit from conditions. Here we employ a continental scale modelling strategy using latest CMIP5 data explicitly take...
Abstract The precipitation and diabatic heating resulting from moist convection make it a key component of the atmospheric water budget in tropics. With convective parameterization being known source uncertainty global models, convection-permitting (CP) models are increasingly used to improve understanding regional climate. Here, new 10-yr CP simulation is study characteristics rainfall for East Africa Lake Victoria basin. explicit representation leads widespread improvement intensities...
Abstract Earth radiation management has been suggested as a way to rapidly counteract global warming in the face of lack mitigation efforts, buying time and avoiding potentially catastrophic warming. We compare six different schemes that use surface, troposphere, stratosphere interventions single climate model which we projected future from 2020 2099 based on RCP4.5. analyze surface air temperature responses determine how effective are at returning its 1986–2005 climatology precipitation...
Abstract Eastern Africa’s fast-growing population is vulnerable to changing rainfall and extremes. Using the first pan-African climate change simulations that explicitly model rainfall-generating convection, we investigate both response of key mesoscale drivers eastern African rainfall, such as sea lake breezes, spatial heterogeneity responses. The explicit shows widespread increases at end century in mean (~40%) extreme (~50%) rain rates, whereas sign changes frequency has large (from −50%...
Abstract Pan-Africa convection-permitting regional climate model simulations have been performed to study the impact of high resolution and explicit representation atmospheric moist convection on present future Africa. These unique allowed European African scientists understand critical role that plays in ability a contemporary capture change, including many impact-relevant aspects such as rainfall variability extremes. There are significant improvements not only small-scale characteristics...
In an assessment of how Arctic sea ice cover could be remediated in a warming world, we simulated the injection SO2 into stratosphere making annual adjustments to rates. We treated one climate model realization as surrogate "real world" with imperfect "observations" and no rerunning or reference control simulations. rates were proposed using novel predictive regime which incorporated second simpler forecast "optimal" decision pathways. Commencing simulation 2018, was by 2043 maintained until...
<title>Abstract</title> The question of if or when the 1.5°C Paris Agreement threshold is crossed great public and scientific interest. A single year above does not necessarily imply that reached but may provide warning crossing 1.5°C. We find that, under current emissions policies, annual temperatures exceeding in three individual years suggests it very likely (90-100% chance) human-induced global warming has could occur up to 12 (very range) before reached. 1.4°C, as occurred 2023, a...
Humid heatwaves (HHWs) can cause heat stress in humans by reducing the ability to sweat higher humidity. West Africa is an area of high interest due its rapid population growth, vulnerability, and latitudinal variation HHW drivers. There little understanding how HHWs are triggered at synoptic scales. Using reanalysis satellite-derived rainfall, we find different drivers three key regions Guinean coast, Sahel Sahara. associated with elevated near-surface specific humidity all regions....
Humid heat is a serious risk to human health, reducing the body&#8217;s ability cool through sweating. The intensity, frequency and impact of humid extremes will increase under climate change, particularly in tropical sub-tropical &#8216;hot spots&#8217;, such as equatorial Africa Indian subcontinent, which are highly populated, already very hot humid. Research on meteorological drivers immature compared that for dry heatwaves. Here an overview latest results from Global...
Abstract. The regional climate impacts of hypothetical future emissions scenarios can be estimated by combining Earth system model simulations with a linear pattern scaling such as MESMER (Modular System Model Emulator spatially Resolved output), which uses patterns the local response per degree global temperature change. Here we use mean trend component to emulate surface based on historical single-forcer and Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) CMIP6 (Coupled Intercomparison Project Phase 6)...
Abstract. During the TORCH campaign a zero dimensional box model based on Master Chemical Mechanism was used to concentrations of OH radicals. The provided close overall fit measured but with some significant deviations. In this research, an approach established for applying Generalized Additive Models (GAM) atmospheric concentration data. Two GAM models were fitted radical using data, first data and second MCM results. five smooth functions 78% deviance explained 83% modelled OH. produced...
This study assessed the sensitivity of West African climate to varying vegetation fractions. The assessment a such relationship is critical in understanding interactions between land surface and atmosphere. Two sets convection-permitting simulations from UK Met Office Unified Model at 12 km horizontal resolution covering monsoon period May-September (MJJAS) were used, one with fixed fraction (MF-V) other time-varying (MV-V). Vegetation fractions are based on MODIS retrievals May September....
Abstract The diurnal temperature range (DTR) of surface air over land varies geographically and seasonally. authors have investigated these variations using generalized additive models (GAMs), a nonlinear regression methodology. With DTR as the response variable, meteorological parameters were treated explanatory variables. Regression curves related deviation from its mean value to values Cloud cover, soil moisture, distance inland, solar radiation, elevation combined variables in an...
Abstract Global climate models struggle to simulate both the convection and cloud ice fundamental lightning formation. We use first convection‐permitting, future simulations for hot spot of Africa, at same time utilizing an ice‐based parametrization. Both model observations show that over Africa's drier areas, as well moist Congo, have more per rainfall than other regions. Contrary results in literature, projection shows little increase total (~10 7 flashes (or 2%) degree warming). This is a...
Due to associated hydrological risks, there is an urgent need provide plausible quantified changes in future extreme rainfall rates. Convection-permitting (CP) climate simulations represent a major advance capturing and its sensitivities atmospheric under global warming. However, they are computationally costly, limiting uncertainty evaluation ensembles covered time periods. This contrast the Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) 5 6 ensembles, which cannot capture relevant convective...
Episodes of choking during medication administration to patients with dysphagia prompted a chart audit and caregiver interview identify system problems that allowed inappropriate drug occur. Sixty elderly residing on two patient care areas in 500-bed complex continuing facility were studied. The explored the actual nursing methods compared this information obtained from various communication tools including instructions appeared record (MAR), current diet order, recommendations...
Abstract. The marine-cloud brightening geoengineering technique has been suggested as a possible means of counteracting the positive radiative forcing associated with anthropogenic atmospheric CO2 increases. focus this study is to quantify albedo response aerosols injected into marine stratocumulus cloud from point source at different times day. We use cloud-resolving model investigate both weakly precipitating and non-precipitating regimes. Injection regimes induces first indirect aerosol...
Abstract The Hadley circulation and tropical rain belt are dominant features of African climate. Moist convection provides ascent within the belt, but must be parameterized in climate models, limiting predictions. Here, we use a pan-African convection-permitting model (CPM), alongside (PCM), to analyze how explicit affects under change. Regarding changes mean climate, both models project an increase total column water (TCW), widespread rainfall, slowdown subtropical descent. Regional similar...
Abstract Current-climate precipitation and temperature extremes have been identified by decision makers in West Africa as among the more impactful weather events causing lasting socioeconomic damage. In this article, we use a plausible future-climate scenario (RCP8.5) for end of twenty-first century to explore relative commonness such under global warming. The analysis presented considers what typical day future climate will feel like current extrema. Across much Africa, see that has maximum...
Abstract The future change in dry and humid heatwaves is assessed 10-yr pan-African convective-scale (4.5 km) parameterized convection (25 climate model simulations. Compared to reanalysis, the simulation better able represent than simulation. Model performance for much more similar. Both configurations simulate large increases intensity, duration, frequency of by 2100 under RCP8.5. Present-day conditions that occur on 3–6 heatwave days per year will be normal 2100, occurring 150–180 year....