A5082980293- Hydrology and Drought Analysis
- Hydrology and Watershed Management Studies
- Climate variability and models
- Flood Risk Assessment and Management
- Water resources management and optimization
- Reservoir Engineering and Simulation Methods
- Social and Educational Sciences
- Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
- Precipitation Measurement and Analysis
- Climate change impacts on agriculture
- Quantum Dots Synthesis And Properties
- Solid-state spectroscopy and crystallography
- Crystallization and Solubility Studies
- Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research
- Thermodynamic properties of mixtures
- Environmental and Agricultural Sciences
- Chemical Thermodynamics and Molecular Structure
- Contact Dermatitis and Allergies
- Cryospheric studies and observations
- Geophysics and Gravity Measurements
- Advancements in Transdermal Drug Delivery
- Semiconductor Quantum Structures and Devices
- Crystallography and molecular interactions
- Hydraulic Fracturing and Reservoir Analysis
- nanoparticles nucleation surface interactions
UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology
2013-2025
Lund University
1991-2015
HR Wallingford
2009
Linköping University
1989-2005
Environmental and Water Resources Engineering
1998
Uppsala University
1991
Abstract. Drought monitoring and early warning (M & EW) systems are a crucial component of drought preparedness. M EW typically make use indicators such as the Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI), but not widely used in UK. More generally, tools have been well developed for hydrological (i.e. streamflow) drought. To fill these research gaps, this paper characterises meteorological droughts, propagation from one to other, using SPI related Streamflow (SSI), with objective improving...
Abstract Results of a study on change detection in hydrological time series annual maximum river flow are presented. Out more than thousand long made available by the Global Runoff Data Centre (GRDC) Koblenz, Germany, worldwide data set consisting 195 daily mean records was selected, based such criteria as length series, currency, lack gaps and missing values, adequate geographical distribution, priority to smaller catchments. The analysis flows does not support hypothesis ubiquitous growth...
Abstract Major floods in Europe and North America during the past decade have provoked question of whether or not they are an effect a changing climate. This study investigates changes observational data, using up to 100-year-long daily mean river flow records at 21 stations worldwide. Trends seven flood low-flow index series assessed Mann-Kendall linear regression methods. Emphasis was on comparison trends these series, particularly peak-over-threshold (POT) as opposed annual maximum (AM)...
Abstract. Drought monitoring and early warning is an important measure to enhance resilience towards drought. While there are numerous operational systems using different drought indicators, no consensus on which indicator best represents impact occurrence for any given sector. Furthermore, thresholds widely applied in these indicators but, date, little empirical evidence exists as trigger impacts society, the economy, ecosystems. The main obstacle evaluating commonly used a lack of...
Abstract Drought indicators are used as triggers for action and so the foundation of drought monitoring early warning. The computation like standardized precipitation index (SPI) streamflow (SSI) require a statistical probability distribution to be fitted observed data. Both have lower bound at zero, their empirical distributions tend positive skewness. For deriving SPI, Gamma has therefore often been natural choice. concept SSI is newer there no consensus regarding distribution. In present...
This paper describes the development of first operational seasonal hydrological forecasting service for UK, Hydrological Outlook UK (HOUK). Since June 2013, this has delivered monthly forecasts streamflow and groundwater levels, with an emphasis on conditions over next three months, accompanied by outlooks longer time horizons. system is based complementary approaches combined to produce outlooks: (i) national-scale modelling levels dynamic rainfall forecasts, (ii) catchment-scale where...
Abstract Flooding in estuaries may be caused by both high river flows and sea levels. In order to investigate whether these tend occur simultaneously eastern Britain, the dependence between surge (observed level minus predicted astronomical tide), flow precipitation was studied using a measure of specially developed for extremal dependence. Extreme events were interpreted meteorological maps. This new analysis found that strongest flow–surge occurs on north shore Firth Forth at Aberdeen,...
Abstract. Estuaries around Great Britain may be at heightened risk of flooding because the simultaneous occurrence extreme sea surge and river flow, both which caused by mid-latitude cyclones. A measure especially suited for extremes was employed to estimate dependence between flow surge. To assist in interpretation why flow-surge occurs some areas not others, precipitation also studied. Case studies meteorological situations leading high surges and/or flows were carried out. The present...
Abstract The design of hydraulic structures requires knowledge how much rain is likely to fall within a certain amount time and over specific area. Point rainfalls are only representative for very limited area, larger areas, the areal average rainfall depth be smaller than at point maximum observed depth. estimation reduction factors (ARFs) concerned with relationship between rainfalls. This has been found vary with, example, predominant weather type, season return period. Traditionally, ARF...
Abstract This review outlines nationwide methods for point rainfall frequency estimation currently in use nine different countries: Canada, Sweden, France, Germany, the United States, South Africa, New Zealand, Australia and Kingdom. For Kingdom, Flood Studies Report method from 1975 is described as well current Estimation Handbook method. The focus on return periods relevant to reservoir design, region of 100–10 000 years. There considerable difficulty estimating long period rainfalls short...
Seasonal river flow forecasts are beneficial for planning agricultural activities, navigation, and management of reservoirs public water supply hydropower generation. In the United Kingdom (UK), skilful seasonal predictions have previously been limited to catchments in lowland (southern eastern) regions. Here we show that long-range winter flows can now be achieved across whole UK. This is due a remarkable geographical complementarity between regional geological meteorological sources...
Abstract. When designing or maintaining an hydraulic structure, estimate of the frequency and magnitude extreme events is required. The most common methods to obtain such estimates rely on assumption stationarity, i.e. that stochastic process under study not changing. public perception worry a changing climate have led wide debate validity this assumption. In work trends for annual seasonal maxima in peak river flow catchment-average daily rainfall are explored. Assuming two-parameter...
Abstract. Drought management frameworks are dependent on methods for monitoring and prediction, but quantifying the hazard alone is arguably not sufficient; negative consequences that may arise from a lack of precipitation must also be predicted if droughts to better managed. However, link between drought intensity, expressed by some hydrometeorological indicator, occurrence impacts has only recently begun addressed. One challenge paucity information ecological socioeconomic drought. This...
The multifractal properties of daily rainfall were investigated in two contrasting climates: an east Asian monsoon climate (China) with extreme variability and a temperate (Sweden) moderate variability. First, time series studied. results showed that both climates can be viewed as the result multiplicative cascade process for range 1–32 days. temporal data exhibited scaling moments orders up to 2.5 area 4.0 clear climates. Second, spatial distributions pooled into different...
Summary The UK has in recent years experienced a series of fluvial flooding events which have simultaneously affected communities over different parts the country. For co-ordination flood mitigation activities and for insurance reinsurance industries, knowledge spatial characteristics is important. Past research into spatiotemporal risk largely been restricted to empirical estimates measures. A weakness with such an approach that there no basis extrapolation these rarer events, required as...
Seasonal river flow forecasting methods are currently being developed for country-wide application in the United Kingdom, using several different techniques. In this paper, based on persistence and historical analogues presented. New 1- 3-month forecasts made each month monthly flows at 93 stations with records least 30 years long. The method that performs best is selected separate month, catchment forecast duration. of previous month's generally outperform approach, particularly slowly...
Abstract. Drought monitoring and early warning (M&EW) systems are a crucial component of drought preparedness. M&EW typically make use indicators such as the Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI), but not widely used in UK. More generally, tools have been well developed for hydrological (i.e. streamflow) drought. To fill these research gaps, this paper characterises meteorological droughts, propagation from one to other using SPI related Streamflow (SSI), with objective...
Despite being one of the most damaging natural hazards, droughts and their spatiotemporal dynamics are typically not well understood. Great Britain, which is focus this work, has experienced many major drought episodes in past, causing a range socioeconomic environmental impacts. Here, we apply recently developed technique to identify characterise past droughts, using space-time connectivity extract events from monthly gridded precipitation dataset covering 1862–2015, without imposing fixed...
With anticipated changes in future hydrological extremes over Europe, it is important to better understand their underlying drivers for ultimately improving forecasting. Previous studies have demonstrated a significant influence of the North Atlantic Ocean on European climate. Building this, we identify novel Sea surface temperature (SST) indicators that are linked meteorological and across various catchments at long lead times. We evaluate predictor-predictand relationships by assessing...
Cutaneous microdialysis in vivo human skin is demonstrably of use the study metabolism, percutaneous absorption and inflammation. A promising area for cutaneous measurement cytokines. This requires catheters equipped with membranes permeable to molecules high molecular weight.To address technical problems poor sample volume retrieval analysis sensitivity simplest model provocation, namely insertion catheter itself into dermis.Use a polyethylenesulphone membrane, cut-off value 100,000 Da,...