A5075369416- Hydrology and Watershed Management Studies
- Hydrology and Drought Analysis
- Climate variability and models
- Flood Risk Assessment and Management
- Climate change and permafrost
- Soil Moisture and Remote Sensing
- Climate change impacts on agriculture
- Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
- Geophysics and Gravity Measurements
- Oceanographic and Atmospheric Processes
- Varied Academic Research Topics
- Hydrology and Sediment Transport Processes
- Hydraulic flow and structures
UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology
2024-2025
University of Reading
2021-2024
University College London
2020
The UK has experienced recurring hydrological droughts in the past and their frequency severity are predicted to increase with climate change. However, quantifying risks of extreme is challenging given short observational record, multivariate nature large internal variability system. We use EC-Earth time-slice ensembles, which consist 2000 years data each for present-day, 2°C 3°C conditions relative pre-industrial, drive models river catchments Great Britain (GB) obtain a set plausible...
Abstract. Spatially extensive multi-year hydrological droughts cause significant environmental stress. The UK is expected to remain vulnerable future under climate change. Existing approaches quantify impacts of change often rely solely on global model (GCM) projections following different emission scenarios. This may miss out low-probability events with impacts. As a means exploring such events, physical storyline aim physically coherent articulations how observed could hypothetically have...
A warming climate is expected to alter the magnitude, frequency and spatial pattern of floods. The widespread flooding observed in UK Western Europe over winter half-year 2023/24 followed on from a number other notable floods 2013/14, 2015/16 2019/20. However, detecting climate-driven trend river flows complicated by influence internal variability relatively short observational records. End-to-end probabilistic attribution that includes also remains challenging as hydrological responses do...
Rapid transitions between droughts and floods can exacerbate the impacts of individual events present a complex challenge for water resource management: sudden or frequent dry wet conditions negatively impact quality, agricultural productivity, cause damage to infrastructure. Despite these potentially severe impacts, such are less comprehensively studied than their component extremes.  Transitions be defined multiple ways, here we identify transition as period consecutive yet...
With anticipated changes in future hydrological extremes over Europe, it is important to better understand their underlying drivers for ultimately improving forecasting. Previous studies have demonstrated a significant influence of the North Atlantic Ocean on European climate. Building this, we identify novel Sea surface temperature (SST) indicators that are linked meteorological and across various catchments at long lead times. We evaluate predictor-predictand relationships by assessing...
Uncertainty in climate change impacts on river discharge the Upper Awash Basin, Ethiopia, is assessed using five MIKE SHE hydrological models, six CMIP5 general circulation models (GCMs) and two representative concentration pathways (RCP) scenarios for period 2071–2100. Hydrological vary their spatial distribution process representations of unsaturated saturated zones. Very good performance achieved 1975–1999 (NSE: 0.65–0.8; r: 0.79–0.93). GCM-related uncertainty dominates variability...
Abstract. The UK has experienced recurring periods of hydrological droughts in the past, including drought declared summer 2022. Seasonal hindcasts, consisting a large sample plausible weather sequences, can be used to create storylines and add value existing approaches water resources planning. In this study, drivers winter rainfall Anglian region England are investigated using ECMWF SEAS5 hindcast dataset, which includes 2850 winters across 25 ensemble members 3 lead times. Four clusters...
Abstract. The UK has experienced recurring periods of hydrological droughts in the past, including latest drought declared summer 2022. Seasonal hindcasts, consisting a large sample plausible weather sequences, can be used to add value existing approaches water resources planning. In this study, drivers winter rainfall Greater Anglia region are investigated using ECMWF SEAS5 hindcast dataset, which includes 2850 winters across 25 ensemble members and 3 lead times. Four clusters were defined...
Abstract. Spatially extensive multi-year hydrological droughts cause significant environmental stress. Given the impacts of climate change, UK is expected to remain vulnerable future droughts. Existing approaches quantify change are often scenario-driven and may miss out plausible outcomes with impacts. Event-based storyline aim storylines how observed events could hypothetically have unfolded in alternative ways. This study uses 2010–2012 drought, most recent period severe drought UK, as a...
Much research has been carried out on the possible impacts of climate change for UK river flows. Catchment and national-scale studies since early 1990s are here categorized into four modelling approaches: “top-down” GCM (Global Climate Model)-driven probabilistic approaches “bottom-up” stylised scenario-neutral approaches. Early followed a approach with small number model experiments focused system sensitivity. GCM-driven dominate mid-1990s scenario-led “top-down”, but which incur cascade...
Hydrological drought frequency and severity is projected to increase for the UK. However, there not yet robust observational evidence decreasing river flows increasing hydrological severity. This lack of may stem from short records, human influences on internal climate variability. As a result, flow trends in past near-term be different trend induced by long-term change. congruency poses significant challenges decision-makers faced with uncertain future projections one hand an apparent...
<p>Spatially extensive multi-year hydrological droughts threaten water resources availability and incur significant environmental socio-economic consequences. Given the impacts of climate change, UK is expected to remain vulnerable future droughts. Existing approaches quantify change are often scenario-driven may miss out plausible outcomes with impacts. Event-based storyline aim “storylines” how a singular event could hypothetically have unfolded in...
The UK has experienced recurring periods of hydrological droughts in the past, including recent 2022 drought. Different types large ensemble simulations such as single model initial condition climate or weather hindcasts provide a sample seasonal to decadal simulations. They can help overcome challenges understanding extreme presented by limited observations, multivariate nature individual drought events and internal variability system. Here, we demonstrate how reforecasts be used create...
<p>The UK has experienced recurring periods of hydrological droughts in the past and their frequency severity are predicted to increase with climate change. However, quantifying risks extreme is challenging given short observational record, multivariate nature large internal variability system. We use EC-Earth time-slice ensembles, which consist 2000 years data each for present day, 2°C 3°C conditions, drive GR6J model at river catchments obtain a set...
Gravity is a phenomenon that has been part of the universe since its creation. This when an object pulls everything around it toward center object. itself was discovered by Sir Isaac Newton in 17th century. Humans think there no such thing as anti-gravity. research aims to prove value planet's gravity can change under certain conditions. In addition, this also humans create something causes all objects particular area have close short, 3 influences gravity. uses two methods, namely,...
Figure S1: 12-months precipitation deficit relative to long term average for each return period and cluster the storylines of precondition severity with a 3-and 6-months perturbation prior 2010-12 drought.