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Background With approximately 3 billion people at risk of acquiring the infection, dengue fever is now considered most important mosquito-borne viral disease in world, with 390 million infections occurring every year, which 96 manifest symptoms any level severity. Treatment uncomplicated cases only supportive and severe require hospital intensive care. A vaccine licensed several countries developed by Sanofi Pasteur (CYD-TDV, named Dengvaxia), was able to protect, first 25 months two Phase...

Abstract Background Mosquito-borne diseases cause millions of deaths each year and are increasingly spreading from tropical subtropical regions into temperate zones, posing significant public health risks. In the Basque Country region Spain, changing climatic conditions have driven spread invasive mosquitoes, increasing potential for local transmission such as dengue, Zika, chikungunya. The establishment mosquito species in new areas, coupled with rising populations viremic imported cases,...

In March 2020, a multidisciplinary task force (so-called Basque Modelling Task Force, BMTF) was created to assist the health managers and Government during COVID-19 responses. BMTF is modelling team, working on different approaches, including stochastic processes, statistical methods artificial intelligence. Here we describe efforts challenges develop flexible modeling framework able dynamics observed for tested positive cases, development steps. The results obtained by new SHARUCD model are...

Basic models suitable to explain the epidemiology of dengue fever have previously shown possibility deterministically chaotic attractors, which might observed fluctuations found in empiric outbreak data. However, region bifurcations and chaos require strong enhanced infectivity on secondary infection, motivated by experimental findings antibody-dependent-enhancement. Including temporary cross-immunity such models, is common knowledge among field researchers dengue, we find up attractors much...

Abstract As the COVID-19 pandemic progressed, research on mathematical modeling became imperative and very influential to understand epidemiological dynamics of disease spreading. The momentary reproduction ratio r ( t ) an epidemic is used as a public health guiding tool evaluate course epidemic, with evolution being reasoning behind tightening relaxing control measures over time. Here we investigate critical fluctuations around threshold, resembling new waves, even when community...

Caused by four serotypes, dengue fever is a major public health concern worldwide. Current modeling efforts have mostly focused on primary and heterologous secondary infections, assuming that lifelong immunity prevents reinfections the same serotype. However, recent findings challenge this assumption, prompting reevaluation of dynamics. In study, we develop within-host framework to explore different scenarios infections. Unlike previous studies, go beyond deterministic framework, considering...

Abstract The emergence of infectious diseases with pandemic potential is a major public health threat worldwide. World Health Organization reports that about 60% emerging are zoonoses, originating from spillover events. Although the mechanisms behind events remain unclear, mathematical modeling offers way to understand intricate interactions among pathogens, wildlife, humans, and their shared environment. Aiming at gaining insights into dynamics outcome an eventual disease outbreak in...

AbstractIn vector-borne diseases, the human hosts' epidemiology often acts on a much slower time scales than one of mosquitos transmitting as vector from to human, due their vastly different life cycles. We investigate in how far fast scale mosquito can be slaved by epidemiology, so that for understanding disease data mainly dynamics is essential and only slightly perturbed dynamics.Keywords: time-scale separationcentre manifold approximationvector-borne diseasesdengue feverstochastic...

Dengue fever dynamics show seasonality, with the disease transmission being higher during warmer seasons. In this paper, we analyse seasonally forced epidemic models and without vector dynamics. We assume small seasonal effects obtain approximations for real response of each state variable also corresponding amplitude phase via decomposition sinusoidal forcing into imaginary exponential functions. The analysis begins simplest susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) model, followed by model...

COVID-19, caused by SARS-CoV-2, has spread globally, presenting a significant public health challenge. Vaccination played critical role in reducing severe disease and deaths. However, the waning of immunity after vaccination emergence immune-escape variants require continuation efforts, including booster doses, to maintain population immunity. This study models dynamics COVID-19 Basque Country, Spain, aiming characterize population's profile assess its impact on severity outbreaks from 2020...

Mosquito-borne diseases cause millions of deaths each year and are increasingly spreading from tropical subtropical regions into temperate zones, creating significant public health risks. The establishment mosquito species in new areas increases the risk local transmission (autochthonous cases), driven by both rising populations viremic imported cases, infected travelers who can spark transmission. Such developments present challenges for systems non-endemic regions. In Spain, Basque Country...

In response to the rapid global transmission of COVID-19, governments worldwide enacted lockdowns and other non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI) control disease. this study, we aim quantify influence NPIs on COVID-19 within selected European regions, specifically Spain (including Basque Country) Italy Tuscany), during period February December 2020, which predates initiation vaccinations. We investigate potential correlations associations between implementation NPIs, changes in rates,...

We revisit the parameter estimation framework for population biological dynamical systems, and apply it to calibrate various models in epidemiology with empirical time series, namely influenza dengue fever. When comes more complex such as multi-strain dynamics describe virus–host interaction fever, even most recently developed techniques, maximum likelihood iterated filtering, reach their computational limits. However, first results of data on fever from Thailand indicate a subtle interplay...

The initial exponential growth rate of an epidemic is important measure that follows directly from data at hand, commonly used to infer the basic reproduction number. As rates λ(t) tested positive COVID-19 cases have crossed threshold in many countries, with negative numbers as surrogate for disease transmission deceleration, lockdowns lifting are linked behavior momentary r(t), often called R0. Important note this concept alone can be easily misinterpreted it bound internal assumptions...