We estimate the causal effect of a large development program on conflict in Philippines through regression discontinuity design that exploits an arbitrary poverty threshold used to assign eligibility for program. find barely eligible municipalities experienced increase casualties compared ineligible ones. This is mostly due insurgent-initiated incidents early stages preparation. Our results are consistent with hypothesis insurgents try sabotage because its success would weaken their support...

Abstract In the continuing debate over impact of genetically modified (GM) crops on farmers developing countries, it is important to accurately measure magnitudes such as farm‐level yield gains from GM crop adoption. Yet most studies in literature do not control for farmer self‐selection, a potentially source bias estimates. We use panel data Indian cotton investigate effect insect‐resistant cotton. explicitly take into account fact that choice variety an endogenous variable which might lead...

Abstract Many experts see a move toward high-value export crops, such as fruits and vegetables, an important opportunity for economic growth poverty reduction, but little is known about the effects of crops in fragile conflict-affected countries. We exploit movements world market prices combined with geographic variation crop production to show that increases value bananas, country’s biggest crop, caused increase conflict violence insurgent-controlled territory Philippines. This effect was...

Drawing on county‐level data from Kansas for the period 1977–2011, we examine whether plausibly exogenous increases in number of establishments licensed to sell alcohol by drink are related violent crime. During this period, 86 out 105 counties voted legalise sale general public on‐premises consumption. Using legalisation as an instrument, show that a 10% increase drinking is associated with 3–5% The estimated relationship between and property crime also positive, although smaller magnitude.

This article provides evidence that rainfall shocks affect conflict through their effect on agricultural production and irrigation infrastructure can mitigate this effect. Using data from Indonesia, we document low during the season decreases increases civil conflict. We then show rainfall‐conflict link is attenuated by presence of in a district. attenuating specific to infrastructure; find no for similar hydropower dams. Our results are stronger small‐scale conflicts over natural resources...

The farm-level success of Bt-cotton in developing countries is well documented. However, the literature has only recently begun to recognise importance accounting for effects technology on production risk, addition mean effect estimated by previous studies. risk are likely very important smallholder farmers world due their risk-aversion. We advance emergent and using panel data methods control possible endogeneity Bt-adoption. estimate two models, first a fixed-effects version Just Pope...

We analyze the impact of damage uncertainty on optimal mitigation policies in integrated assessment climate change. Usually, these models analyzeuncertainty by averaging deterministic paths. In contrast, we build a consistentmodel deriving policy rules under persistent uncertainty. For this purpose,we construct close relative DICE model recursive dynamic programming framework. Our approach allows us to disentangle effects risk, risk aversion, and aversion intertemporal substitution....

Abstract Post-election violence is a common form of conflict, but its underlying mechanisms are not well understood. Using data from the 2007 Philippine mayoral elections, this paper provides evidence that post-election particularly intense after narrow victories by incumbents. density test, study shows incumbents were substantially more likely to win than their challengers, pattern consistent with electoral manipulation. There no increase in related incumbents’ political platform or...

Drawing on county-level data from Kansas for the period 1977-2011, we examine whether plausibly exogenous increases in number of establishments licensed to sell alcohol by drink are related violent crime. During this period, 86 out 105 counties voted legalize sale general public on-premises consumption. We provide evidence that these experienced substantial total with liquor licenses (e.g., bars and restaurants). Using legalization as an instrument, show a 10 percent increase drinking is...