A5059098549- Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
- Climate variability and models
- Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research
- Precipitation Measurement and Analysis
- Flood Risk Assessment and Management
- Hydrology and Drought Analysis
- Hydrological Forecasting Using AI
- Climate change impacts on agriculture
- Ocean Waves and Remote Sensing
- Atmospheric aerosols and clouds
- Wind and Air Flow Studies
- Energy Load and Power Forecasting
- Fire effects on ecosystems
- Electric Power System Optimization
- Lightning and Electromagnetic Phenomena
- Hydrology and Watershed Management Studies
- Atmospheric Ozone and Climate
- Climate Change and Health Impacts
- Wind Energy Research and Development
- Energy and Environment Impacts
- Human Mobility and Location-Based Analysis
- Rice Cultivation and Yield Improvement
- Integrated Energy Systems Optimization
- Plant Water Relations and Carbon Dynamics
- Disaster Management and Resilience
National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting
2016-2025
Ministry of Earth Sciences
2014-2025
Government of India
2019-2025
Meteorological Research Institute
2005
Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology
1999-2004
Météo-France
2003
Abstract Agriculture (arguably the backbone of India's economy) is highly dependent on spatial and temporal distribution monsoon rainfall. This paper presents an analysis crop–climate relationships for India, using historic production statistics major crops (rice, wheat, sorghum, groundnut sugarcane) aggregate food grain, cereal, pulses oilseed production. Correlation provides indication influence rainfall some its potential predictors (Pacific Indian Ocean sea‐surface temperatures, Darwin...
Abstract The Indian Monsoon Data Assimilation and Analysis (IMDAA) is a regional high‐resolution atmospheric reanalysis over the subcontinent. This India first of its kind produced by National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting Met Office, UK, in collaboration with Meteorological Department under Mission project Ministry Earth Sciences, Government India. runs from 1979 to 2018, span era modern meteorological satellites. article briefly describes IMDAA system discusses performance...
On 17th June 2013 the state of Uttarakhand in India (Latitude 28.72°N to 31.45°N and Longitude 77.57°E–81.03°E) received more than 340 mm rainfall, which is 375% daily normal (65.9 mm) rainfall during monsoon. This caused heavy floods as well unprecedented damage life property. In this study we aim at assessing performance two deterministic forecast models, Global Forecast System (GFS/T574) Unified Model (NCUM), run NCMRWF, predicting observed over region 17–18th June, 2013. Verification...
The increasing frequencies of extreme weather events like heavy precipitation, drought, heatwaves, etc, have been associated with climate change in recent years. reliability air temperature forecasts at 2 meters above the surface is vital when trying to prepare for potential weather-related disasters, such as heat waves. In years, there has a lot emphasis placed on prediction heatwave conditions over India by using deterministic Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models. Despite improvements...
Cyclone Mocha, classified as an Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm (ESCS), followed unusual northeastward trajectory while exhibiting a well-defined eyewall structure. It experienced rapid intensification (RI) before making landfall along the Myanmar coast. caused heavy rainfall (~90 mm) and gusty winds (~115 knots) over coastal regions of Bay Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) countries, such coasts Bangladesh Myanmar. The factors responsible RI...
Recent studies based on observed climatic data indicate weakening of the relationship between El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian summer monsoon rainfall, possibly due to global warming. Transient climate change simulations a coupled ocean‐atmosphere GCM (ECHAM4/OPYC3) project towards enhanced ENSO activities in tropical Pacific, as well increase mean rainfall variability over India. However, interannual correlations two are strong throughout 240 year simulation. Analysis...
The present study is an assessment of a two-member ensemble transient climate change simulations, with focus on the Indian summer monsoon and ENSO-monsoon teleconnection. CNRM ocean-atmosphere coupled model integrated from 1950 to 2099 driven by changes in concentrations greenhouse gases sulfate aerosols. simulated first validated against available observations NCEP/NCAR reanalyses over second half 20th century. captures main features mode variability found tropical regions, namely El Niño...
Abstract The southern Indian state of Kerala experienced exceptionally high rainfall during August 2018, which led to devastating floods in many parts the state. Prediction and early warning severe weather events vulnerable areas is crucial for disaster management agencies order protect life property. In recent years, state‐of‐the‐art numerical prediction (NWP) models have been used operationally predict over different spatial temporal scales. present paper, predictions based on National...
Abstract During August 2018 and 2019 the southern state of India, Kerala, received unprecedented heavy rainfall, which led to widespread flooding. We aim characterize convective nature these events large-scale atmospheric forcing, while exploring their predictability by three state-of-the-art global prediction systems: National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)-based India Meteorological Department (IMD) operational Global Forecast System (GFS), European Centre Medium-Range Weather...
Abstract Accurate ensemble forecasts of heavy precipitation in India are vital for many applications and essential early warning damaging flood events, especially during the monsoon season. In this study we investigate to what extent Quantile Mapping (QM) Ensemble Model Output Statistics (EMOS) statistical postprocessing reduce errors over India, particular precipitation. Both methods applied day‐1 at 12‐km resolution from 23‐member National Centre Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF)...
Abstract. The operational medium-range weather forecasting based on numerical prediction (NWP) models are complemented by the forecast products ensemble systems (EPSs). This change has been recognised as an essentially useful tool for and is now finding its place in extreme events. Here we investigate events (heatwaves) using a high-resolution NWP model union with classical statistical scores to serve verification purposes. With advent of climate-change-related studies recent past, rising...
Abstract We assess the skill of fully coupled lagged ensemble forecasts from GloSea5‐GC2, for sub‐seasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescale up 4 weeks, with aim understanding how these might be used in a Ready‐Set‐Go style decision‐making framework. Integrated Multi‐satellite Retrievals Global Precipitation Measurement (IMERG‐GPM) are seamlessly verify monthly timescales whereby forecast and observed precipitation fields summed over sequence increasing lead time accumulation windows (LTAWs), 1d1d...
Abstract The advent of weather and climate models has equipped us to forecast or project monsoon rainfall patterns over various spatiotemporal scales; however, utilizing a single model is not usually sufficient yield accurate projection due the inherent uncertainties associated with individual models. An ensemble runs often used for better projections as multimodel (MME). This study analyzes accuracy MME in simulating Indian summer (ISMR) variability using Coupled Model Intercomparison...
The regional climatic impacts associated with global change and their assessment are very important since agriculture, water resources, ecology etc., all vulnerable to changes on scale. Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) simulations provide a range of scenarios, which can be used, for the development adaptive or mitigative strategies. Validation models against observations establishing sensitivity climate forcing essential before projections used possible impacts....
This study investigates the impact of anthropogenic climate change on Indian summer monsoon, and ENSO-monsoon teleconnection, using transient simulations MRI coupled model (MRI-CGCM2.2). In present atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations aerosols are varied to represent observed changes during 1850-2000, from 2001-2100, at rate prescribed by SRES-A2 B2 scenarios response monsoon 2071-2100. All India annual temperature shows warming 2.35°C (1.64°C), while all-India rainfall (JJAS)...