A5090169202- Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
- Climate variability and models
- Precipitation Measurement and Analysis
- Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics
- Hydrology and Drought Analysis
- Flood Risk Assessment and Management
- Atmospheric aerosols and clouds
- Geophysics and Gravity Measurements
- Oceanographic and Atmospheric Processes
- Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research
- Soil Moisture and Remote Sensing
- Radiation Detection and Scintillator Technologies
- Embedded Systems Design Techniques
- Wind and Air Flow Studies
- Parallel Computing and Optimization Techniques
- Hydrology and Watershed Management Studies
- Marine and coastal ecosystems
- Real-time simulation and control systems
- Soil Geostatistics and Mapping
- Advanced Data Storage Technologies
- Traffic Prediction and Management Techniques
- Atmospheric Ozone and Climate
- Cryospheric studies and observations
- Geographic Information Systems Studies
- Experimental Learning in Engineering
Met Office
2015-2025
Exeter Hospital
2020-2021
Manor Hospital
2018
University of Reading
2003-2006
South African Weather Service
2000-2001
Abstract. We describe Global Atmosphere 6.0 and Land (GA6.0/GL6.0): the latest science configurations of Met Office Unified Model JULES (Joint UK Environment Simulator) land surface model developed for use across all timescales. includes ENDGame (Even Newer Dynamics General atmospheric modelling environment) dynamical core, which significantly increases mid-latitude variability improving a known bias. Alongside developments model's physical parametrisations, also in tropics, leads to an...
Abstract Ice clouds are an important yet largely unvalidated component of weather forecasting and climate models, but radar offers the potential to provide necessary data evaluate them. First in this paper, coordinated aircraft situ measurements scans by a 3-GHz presented, demonstrating that, for stratiform midlatitude ice clouds, reflectivity Rayleigh-scattering regime may be reliably calculated from size spectra if “Brown Francis” mass–size relationship is used. The comparisons spanned...
Abstract. In this paper we define the first Regional Atmosphere and Land (RAL) science configuration for kilometre-scale modelling using Unified Model (UM) as basis atmosphere Joint UK Environment Simulator (JULES) land. RAL1 defines of dynamics physics schemes This will provide a model baseline any future weather or climate developments to be described against, it is intention that from point forward significant changes system documented in literature. reproduces process used global...
Abstract The fractions skill score (FSS) was one of the measures that formed part Intercomparison Spatial Forecast Verification Methods project. FSS used to assess a common dataset consisted real and perturbed Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) model precipitation forecasts, as well geometric cases. These datasets are all based on NCEP 240 grid, which translates approximately 4-km resolution over contiguous United States. cases showed can provide truthful assessment displacement errors...
Abstract The Fractions Skill Score (FSS) is a spatial verification metric routinely computed in the operational suite. It enables comparison of forecasts different resolutions against common truth (radar rainfall analyses) such way that high‐resolution are not penalized for representativeness errors arise from ‘double penalty’ problem. Officially Met Office model precipitation forecast accuracy monitored using Equitable Threat (ETS) at gauge locations. These scores form part basket measures...
ABSTRACT Verification scientists and practitioners came together at the 5 th I nternational V erification M ethods W orkshop in elbourne, A ustralia, D ecember 2011 to discuss methods for evaluating forecasts within a wide variety of applications. Progress has been made many areas including improved verification reporting, wider use diagnostic verification, development new scores techniques difficult problems, evaluation applications using meteorological information. There are interesting...
Abstract. In this paper we define RAL2 – the second Regional Atmosphere and Land (RAL) science configuration for regional modelling. uses Unified Model (UM) as basis atmosphere Joint UK Environment Simulator (JULES) land. defines of dynamics physics schemes land builds on baseline RAL1. There are two sub-releases, one mid-latitudes (RAL2-M) tropical regions (RAL2-T). We document differences between them where appropriate discuss how relates to RAL1 corresponding global forecasting model. Our...
Abstract The Met Office in the United Kingdom has developed a completely new probabilistic postprocessing system called IMPROVER to operate on outputs from its operational numerical weather prediction (NWP) forecasts and precipitation nowcasts. aim is improve forecast information public other stakeholders while better exploiting current future generations of underpinning kilometer-scale NWP ensembles. We wish provide seamless nowcasting medium range, consistency between gridded site-specific...
Abstract Routine verification of deterministic numerical weather prediction (NWP) forecasts from the convection-permitting 4-km (UK4) and near-convection-resolving 1.5-km (UKV) configurations Met Office Unified Model (MetUM) has shown that it is hard to consistently demonstrate an improvement in skill higher-resolution model, even though subjective comparison suggests performs better. In this paper use conventional metrics precise matching (through extracting nearest grid point observing...
Abstract. We describe Global Atmosphere 6.0 and Land 6.0: the latest science configurations of Met Office Unified Model JULES land surface model developed for use across all timescales. includes ENDGame dynamical core, which significantly increases mid-latitude variability improving a known bias. Alongside developments model’s physical parametrisations, also in tropics, leads to an improved representation tropical cyclones other phenomena. Further atmospheric parametrisations improve aspects...
Abstract Hourly cycling four‐dimensional variational data assimilation (4D‐Var) was implemented operationally in the Met Office's convective‐scale UKV forecast model July 2017, replacing previous three‐hourly three‐dimensional 3D‐Var scheme. The new system based on a Nowcasting Demonstration Project (NDP), developed and run real time over southern UK domain for London 2012 Olympic Paralympic Games focusing precipitation forecasts. operational extends this capability to full (and surrounding)...
Abstract Recent advancements in numerical weather prediction (NWP) and the enhancement of model resolution have created need for more robust informative verification methods. In response to these needs, a plethora spatial approaches been developed past two decades. A method intercomparison was established 2007 with aim gaining better understanding abilities new methods diagnose different types forecast errors. The project focused on prescribed errors quantitative precipitation forecasts over...
Abstract High‐resolution forecasts can vary considerably from run to run. Excessive inconsistency is undesirable, especially for the forecaster, who seeks similarities between successive runs gain confidence in model guidance. The Met Office 4 km Unified Model every 6 h t + 36 h. Five‐member time‐lag ensembles are created most recent period order study perceived inconsistencies runs. Mean, maximum, and probability‐of‐precipitation forecast fields generated, four different months of...
Abstract What is the benefit of a near-convection-resolving ensemble over deterministic forecast? In this paper, way in which and numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems can be compared demonstrated using probabilistic verification framework. Three years’ worth raw forecasts from Met Office Unified Model (UM) 12-member 2.2-km Global Regional Ensemble Prediction System (MOGREPS-UK) 1.5-km U.K. variable resolution (UKV) configuration were compared, utilizing range forecast neighborhood...
Abstract The presence of and spatial variation in daily precipitation forecast skill from a global deterministic Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model is explored over the Maritime Continent (MC). Location specificity performance with topographic height were primary interest. localised Fractions Skill Score (LFSS) was used alongside one well‐known derivative, Skilful Spatial Scale (SSS). In this study new temporal factorisation, Lead Time Potential (LTP), introduced applied. It found that...
Abstract Accounting for representative mismatches helps reduce ambiguity when interpreting verification results. For example, there can be a difference in the spatial extent between physical phenomenon and its data instance. In this work we use lightning to illustrate this. Lightning is near instantaneous time, highly localised, spatially sparse yet three-dimensional, often processed into two-dimensional point location with time stamp. Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) forecasts of flash...
Abstract With the resolution of global numerical weather prediction (NWP) models now typically between 10 and 20 km, forecasts are able to capture evolution synoptic features that important drivers for significant surface weather. The position, timing, intensity jet cores, highs lows, changes in behavior these forecast is explored using Method Object-based Diagnostic Evaluation (MODE) at scale. Previously this was only possible with a more subjective approach. spatial aspects (objects) their...
Abstract In this article, we introduce a new configuration of the Met Office convective‐scale ensemble for numerical weather prediction, Global and Regional Ensemble Prediction System over United Kingdom (MOGREPS‐UK). The version, which became operational in March 2019, uses an hourly time‐lagged to take advantage 4D‐Var data assimilation run deterministic UK model with variable horizontal resolution, UKV. An 18‐member is created by running three members every hour time‐lagging these 6 hr...
Abstract. The Met Office currently runs two operational ocean forecasting configurations for the North West European Shelf: an eddy-permitting model with a resolution of 7 km (AMM7) and eddy-resolving at 1.5 (AMM15). Whilst qualitative assessments have demonstrated benefits brought by increased AMM15, particularly in ability to resolve finer-scale features, it has been difficult show this quantitatively, especially forecast mode. Applications typical assessment metrics such as root mean...
Abstract Operational agencies face significant challenges related to the verification and evaluation of weather forecasts. These were investigated in a series online workshops polls engaging operational personnel from six countries. Five key themes emerged: inadequate approaches for both existing emerging products; incomplete uncertain observations; difficulties accurately capturing users’ real-world experiences using simplified metrics; poor communication understanding forecasts complex...
Abstract Skill is defined as actual forecast performance relative to the of a reference forecast. It shown that choice (e.g., random or persistence) can affect perceived system. Two scores, equitable threat score (ETS) and odds ratio benefit skill (ORBSS), were chosen show impact using persistence forecast, first some simple hypothetical scenarios second for forecasts from Met Office Unified Model (UM) precipitation, total cloud cover, visibility during 2006. Overall offers sterner test true...
ABSTRACT Cloud forecasts pose a particularly difficult challenge to verification through the three‐dimensional structure of cloud. Two‐dimensional total cloud from one convection‐permitting and near‐convection‐resolving N umerical W eather P rediction ( NWP ) model are compared analysis using M ethod for O bject‐based D iagnostic E valuation MODE T ime omain TD which is currently being developed also consider time dimension. This study attempts quantify spatial temporal evolution...
Abstract Total cloud amount and cloud‐base height are two quantities diagnosed from the vertical distribution of in a model grid column. Together they form basis many cloud‐based forecast products. Forecasts four Met Office Unified Model (MetUM) horizontal resolution configurations compared against manual automated conventional synoptic (SYNOP) observations. The analysis shows that observation‐type‐dependent characteristics feed through to biases skill scores, where observations produce...
ABSTRACT As the societal impacts of hazardous weather and other environmental pressures grow, need for integrated predictions that can represent numerous feedbacks linkages between sub‐systems is greater than ever. This was well illustrated during winter 2013/2014 when a prolonged series deep Atlantic depressions over 3 month period resulted in damaging wind storms exceptional rainfall accumulations. The impact on livelihoods property from resulting coastal surge river surface flooding...