A5036914500- Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
- Climate variability and models
- Galaxies: Formation, Evolution, Phenomena
- Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research
- Astronomy and Astrophysical Research
- Stellar, planetary, and galactic studies
- Ocean Waves and Remote Sensing
- Astrophysics and Star Formation Studies
- Cosmology and Gravitation Theories
- Astrophysical Phenomena and Observations
- Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics
- Geophysics and Gravity Measurements
- Flood Risk Assessment and Management
- Wind and Air Flow Studies
- Atmospheric Ozone and Climate
- Scientific Research and Discoveries
- Coastal and Marine Dynamics
- Advanced Thermodynamics and Statistical Mechanics
- Hydrology and Drought Analysis
- Astronomical Observations and Instrumentation
- Precipitation Measurement and Analysis
- Solar and Space Plasma Dynamics
- Radio Wave Propagation Studies
- Land Use and Ecosystem Services
- Cryospheric studies and observations
Met Office
2016-2025
Reading Museum
2023
University of Sussex
2008-2012
University of Nottingham
2006-2009
Durham University
2009
Using the technique of Angulo & White, we scale Millennium and II simulations structure growth in a Λ cold dark matter (ΛCDM) universe from cosmological parameters with which they were carried out (based on first-year results Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe, WMAP1) to consistent seven-year WMAP data (WMAP7). We implement semi-analytic galaxy formation modelling (SAM) both cosmologies investigate how formation, evolution clustering galaxies are predicted vary parameters. The increased...
Abstract. In this paper we define the first Regional Atmosphere and Land (RAL) science configuration for kilometre-scale modelling using Unified Model (UM) as basis atmosphere Joint UK Environment Simulator (JULES) land. RAL1 defines of dynamics physics schemes This will provide a model baseline any future weather or climate developments to be described against, it is intention that from point forward significant changes system documented in literature. reproduces process used global...
Extreme precipitation is projected to intensify with warming, but how this will manifest locally through time uncertain. Here, we exploit an ensemble of convection-permitting transient simulations examine the emerging signal in local hourly rainfall extremes over 100-years. We show events UK exceeding 20 mm/h that can cause flash floods are 4-times as frequent by 2070s under high emissions; contrast, a coarser resolution regional model shows only 2.6x increase. With every degree intensity...
Abstract A convection-permitting multiyear regional climate simulation using the Met Office Unified Model has been run for first time on an Africa-wide domain. The model as part of Future Climate Africa (FCFA) Improving Processes African (IMPALA) project, and its configuration, domain, forcing data are described here in detail. [Pan-African Convection-Permitting Regional Simulation with UM (CP4-Africa)] uses a 4.5-km horizontal grid spacing at equator is without convection parameterization,...
The XMM Cluster Survey (XCS) is a serendipitous search for galaxy clusters using all publicly available data in the XMM–Newton Science Archive. Its main aims are to measure cosmological parameters and trace evolution of X-ray scaling relations. In this paper we present first release from (XCS-DR1). This consists 503 optically confirmed, serendipitously detected, clusters. Of these clusters, 256 new literature 357 discoveries. We 463 with redshift estimate (0.06 < z 1.46), including 261...
Large surveys using the Sunyaev–Zel'dovich (SZ) effect to find clusters of galaxies are now starting yield large numbers systems out high redshift, many which new discoveries. In order provide theoretical interpretation for release full SZ cluster samples over next few years, we have exploited large-volume Millennium gas cosmological N-body hydrodynamics simulations study population at low and three models with varying physics. We confirm previous results smaller that intrinsic (spherical)...
The Ninth International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones (IWTC-9) took place in Hawaii, USA December 2018. This review paper was presented at the under Cyclone Track topic. forecasting of tropical cyclone (TC) track has seen significant improvements recent decades both by numerical weather prediction models and regional warning centres who issue forecasts having made use these other techniques. Heming Goerss (2010) gave an overview techniques available for TC forecasting, including evidence...
Abstract In both operational and research settings, kilometre‐scale regional numerical weather prediction (NWP) models are often initialised by interpolating analyses from a global modelling system on to the finer grid. When in this way (known as cold start ), first few hours of forecast characterised rapid growth precipitation develops convective‐scale structures. This is well‐known spin‐up problem. Spin‐up effects limit utility cold‐start for short‐range forecasting severe events model...
Climate services must provide robust estimates of future changes to precipitation extremes inform flood risk management and assess the resilience existing urban drainage systems in a changing climate. We use an ensemble convection-permitting UK climate projections, UKCP Local estimate return levels 1–24 h extremes, combining state-of-the-art spatial statistical modelling. produce low, central high level uplifts at 5 km resolution across UK. On average UK, 30y 1 24 is projected increase by...
Abstract Circulation budgets can identify physical processes underpinning tropical cyclones, mesoscale convective vortices, and other weather systems where there are interactions across scales. It is unclear, however, how well these close in practice. The present study uses the rapid intensification of Tropical Cyclone Nepartak (2016) as a case to quantify practical limitations calculating circulation using standard reanalyzes numerical model data. First, we evaluate budget with ERA5....
Understanding of cloud-circulation coupling in a warming world is underpinned by global climate models (GCMs) with coarse horizontal resolutions necessitating the use convective parameterizations. Global convection-permitting are now emerging, but their high computational cost barrier to for studies change.&#160; Here, we present results from 2-year atmosphere-only, limited domain simulations at resolution ~4.5km over region west Pacific using Met Office Unified Model. The limited-area...
Abstract The impact of local climate conditions on air temperatures during a hot summer period over the United Kingdom in 2018 is studied using simple sensitivity experiments with state‐of‐the‐art regional numerical weather prediction system. are designed to investigate influence sea surface temperature (SST) and soil moisture land. They involved applying changes analysed SST patterns magnitudes consistent differences between forecast analysis climatology. results from daily 5‐day forecasts...
We use numerical simulations to investigate, for the first time, joint effect of feedback from supernovae (SNe) and active galactic nuclei (AGN) on evolution galaxy cluster X-ray scaling relations. Our are drawn Millennium Gas Project some largest hydrodynamical N-body ever carried out. Feedback is implemented using a hybrid scheme, where energy input into intracluster gas by SNe AGN taken semi-analytic model formation. This ensures that source population galaxies closely resembles found in...
The Millennium Gas Project aims to undertake smoothed particle hydrodynamic resimulations of the millennium simulation, providing many hundred massive galaxy clusters for comparison with X-ray surveys (170 kTsl > 3 keV). This paper looks at hot gas and stellar fractions in simulations different physical heating mechanisms. These fail reproduce cool-core systems but are successful matching profiles non-cool-core clusters. Although there is immense scatter observational data, simulated broadly...
Abstract The purpose of the Tropical Air–Sea Propagation Study (TAPS), which was conducted during November–December 2013, to gather coordinated atmospheric and radio frequency (RF) data, offshore northeastern Australia, in order address question how well wave propagation can be predicted a clear-air, tropical, littoral maritime environment. Spatiotemporal variations vertical gradients conserved thermodynamic variables found surface layers, mixing entrainment layers have potential bend or...
Abstract Convection-permitting numerical weather prediction models are a key tool for forecasting tropical cyclone (TC) intensities, intensity changes, and precipitation. The Met Office has been routinely running regional (4.4-km grid spacing), explicit convection version of its Unified Model (UM) over the Philippines since August 2014, driven by operational global model. principal aim this study is to assess performance model relative driving By evaluating year’s worth TC forecasts, it...
Abstract. In this paper we define the first "Regional Atmosphere and Land" (RAL) science configuration for kilometre scale modelling using UM JULES. "RAL1" defines of dynamics physics schemes atmosphere land. This will provide a model baseline any future weather or climate developments to be described against it is intention that from point forward significant changes system documented in literature. reproducing process used global configurations which was as 2011. While our goal have single...
Abstract Convection‐permitting (CP) models have provided a step change in the ability to forecast impactful convective storms, which pose risks such as flash flooding and lightning. Despite CP being routinely run over tropical Africa, they typically lack data assimilation are initialised directly from global analysis. The model therefore takes time generate structures consequently precipitation, rendering early part of unusable. A ‘warm‐starting’ method developed within Met Office Unified...
We measure the evolution of X-ray luminosity-temperature (L_X-T) relation since z~1.5 using a sample 211 serendipitously detected galaxy clusters with spectroscopic redshifts drawn from XMM Cluster Survey first data release (XCS-DR1). This is study spanning this redshift range single, large, homogeneous cluster sample. Using an orthogonal regression technique, we find no evidence for in slope or intrinsic scatter z~1.5, finding both to be consistent previous measurements at z~0.1. However,...
We present hydrodynamical N-body simulations of clusters galaxies with feedback taken from semianalytic models galaxy formation. The advantage this technique is that the source in our a population closely resembles found real universe. demonstrate that, to achieve high entropy levels clusters, active galactic nuclei must inject large fraction their energy into intergalactic/intracluster media throughout growth period central black hole. These reinforce argument Bower et al., who arrived at...
Abstract The advancement of computational resources has allowed researchers to run convection-permitting regional climate model (CPRCM) simulations. A pioneering effort promoting a multimodel ensemble such simulations is the CORDEX Flagship Pilot Studies (FPS) on “Convective Phenomena over Europe and Mediterranean” an extended Alps region. In this study, Distribution Added Value metric used determine improvement representation all available FPS hindcast for daily mean near-surface wind...
Abstract. The third version of the Regional Atmosphere and Land (RAL3) science configuration is documented. Developed through international partnership, RAL configurations define settings for Unified Model atmosphere Joint UK Environment Simulator when applied across timescales with kilometre sub-km scale model grids. RAL3 represents a major advance compared to previous versions by delivering common definition suitable application tropical mid-latitude regions. Developments within include...
We present numerical simulations of galaxy clusters with stochastic heating from active galactic nuclei (AGN) that are able to reproduce the observed entropy and temperature profiles non-cool-core (NCC) clusters. Our study uses N-body hydrodynamical investigate how star formation, metal production, black hole accretion associated feedback supernovae AGN heat enrich diffuse gas in assess different implementations these processes affect thermal chemical properties intracluster medium (ICM),...
Abstract The key physical processes responsible for inner-core structural changes and associated fluctuations in the intensification rate a recent, high-impact western North Pacific tropical cyclone that underwent rapid [Nepartak (2016)] are investigated using set of convection-permitting ensemble simulations. Fluctuations structure between ringlike monopole states develop 60% A tangential momentum budget analysis single fluctuation reveals during phase, wind generally intensifies, whereas...
We explore a novel approach to the study of large-scale structure formation in which self-gravitating cold dark matter (CDM) is represented by complex scalar field whose dynamics are governed coupled Schrödinger and Poisson equations. show that, quasi-linear regime, equation can be reduced free-particle equation. advocate using as basis new approximation method—the approximation—that similar spirit successful adhesion model. In this paper we test appealing planar collapse scenario find that...