A5021058724- Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics
- Climate variability and models
- Climate Change Policy and Economics
- Atmospheric chemistry and aerosols
- Atmospheric Ozone and Climate
- Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
- Geophysics and Gravity Measurements
- Atmospheric aerosols and clouds
- Global Energy and Sustainability Research
- Carbon Dioxide Capture Technologies
- Environmental Impact and Sustainability
- Advanced Computational Techniques and Applications
- Climate Change and Health Impacts
- Ionosphere and magnetosphere dynamics
- Arctic and Antarctic ice dynamics
- Groundwater flow and contamination studies
- Solar Radiation and Photovoltaics
- Groundwater and Isotope Geochemistry
- Climate Change and Geoengineering
- Geology and Paleoclimatology Research
- Cryospheric studies and observations
- Calibration and Measurement Techniques
- Stellar, planetary, and galactic studies
- Integrated Energy Systems Optimization
- demographic modeling and climate adaptation
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
2020-2025
Vrije Universiteit Brussel
2024-2025
University of Leeds
2015-2024
Met Office
2013-2024
National Centre for Atmospheric Science
2017-2024
Hellenic Centre for Marine Research
2019-2024
Northern Arizona University
2024
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
2023
CICERO Center for International Climate Research
2023
Wellcome Sanger Institute
2022
Abstract. We describe Global Atmosphere 7.0 and Land (GA7.0/GL7.0), the latest science configurations of Met Office Unified Model (UM) Joint UK Environment Simulator (JULES) land surface model developed for use across weather climate timescales. GA7.0 GL7.0 include incremental developments targeted improvements that, between them, address four critical errors identified in previous configurations: excessive precipitation biases over India, warm moist tropical tropopause layer (TTL), a source...
Strong future warming in some new climate models is less likely as their recent inconsistent with observed trends.
Abstract. We describe Global Atmosphere 6.0 and Land (GA6.0/GL6.0): the latest science configurations of Met Office Unified Model JULES (Joint UK Environment Simulator) land surface model developed for use across all timescales. includes ENDGame (Even Newer Dynamics General atmospheric modelling environment) dynamical core, which significantly increases mid-latitude variability improving a known bias. Alongside developments model's physical parametrisations, also in tropics, leads to an...
Following previous work on an inherently mass‐conserving semi‐implicit (SI) semi‐Lagrangian (SL) discretization of the two‐dimensional (2D) shallow‐water equations and 2D vertical slice equations, that approach is here extended to 3D deep‐atmosphere, non‐hydrostatic global equations. As with reduced‐dimension versions this model, advantage it preserves same basic structure as a standard, non‐mass‐conserving, SISL version model. Additionally, model simply switchable hydrostatic and/or...
Abstract U‐Pb dating of calcite is an emerging but rapidly growing field application in geochronology with great potential to inform problems landscape, basin, and mountain belt evolution, through age determination diagenetic cements, vein mineralization, geological formations difficult date otherwise. In this brief, we present isotope dilution measurements on a sample (WC‐1) that has been will continue be used as reference material for situ Laser Ablation Inductively Coupled Plasma Mass...
Abstract. The effective radiative forcing, which includes the instantaneous forcing plus adjustments from atmosphere and surface, has emerged as key metric of evaluating human natural influence on climate. We evaluate in 17 contemporary climate models that are participating Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) have contributed to Radiative Forcing (RFMIP). Present-day (2014) global-mean anthropogenic relative pre-industrial (1850) levels stands at 2.00 (±0.23) W m−2, comprised 1.81...
Abstract The usefulness of previous Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) exercises has been hampered by a lack radiative forcing information. This made it difficult to understand reasons for differences between model responses. Effective (ERF) is easier diagnose than traditional in global climate models (GCMs) and more representative the eventual temperature response. Here we examine different methods computing ERF two GCMs. We find that computed from fixed sea surface (SST) method...
Abstract. Simple climate models can be valuable if they are able to replicate aspects of complex fully coupled earth system models. Larger ensembles produced, enabling a probabilistic view future change. A simple emissions-based model, FAIR, is presented, which calculates atmospheric concentrations greenhouse gases and effective radiative forcing (ERF) from gases, aerosols, ozone other agents. Model runs constrained observed temperature change 1880 2016 produce range projections under the...
Limiting global warming to 1.5 or 2.0°C requires strong mitigation of anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Concurrently, emissions aerosols will decline, due coemission with GHG, and measures improve air quality. However, the combined climate effect GHG aerosol over industrial era is poorly constrained. Here we show impacts from removing present-day compare them moderate GHG-dominated warming. Removing induces a mean surface heating 0.5–1.1°C, precipitation increase 2.0–4.6%....
Rapid adjustments are responses to forcing agents that cause a perturbation the top of atmosphere energy budget but uncoupled changes in surface warming. Different mechanisms responsible for these variety climate drivers. These remain be quantified detail. It is shown rapid reduce effective radiative (ERF) black carbon by half instantaneous forcing, CO2 increase ERF. Competing tropospheric individually significant sum zero, such ERF equals stratospherically adjusted this not true other...
Abstract We investigate the climate response to increased concentrations of black carbon (BC), as part Precipitation Driver Response Model Intercomparison Project (PDRMIP). A tenfold increase in BC is simulated by nine global coupled‐climate models, producing a model median effective radiative forcing 0.82 (ranging from 0.41 2.91) W m −2 , and warming 0.67 (0.16 1.66) K globally 1.24 (0.26 4.31) Arctic. strong positive instantaneous (median 2.10 based on five models) countered negative rapid...
Abstract. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments are the trusted source of scientific evidence for climate negotiations taking place under United Nations Framework Convention (UNFCCC), including first global stocktake Paris Agreement that will conclude at COP28 in December 2023. Evidence-based decision-making needs to be informed by up-to-date and timely information key indicators state system human influence system. However, successive IPCC reports published intervals...
Abstract. Reduced-complexity climate models (RCMs) are critical in the policy and decision making space, directly used within multiple Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports to complement results of more comprehensive Earth system models. To date, evaluation RCMs has been limited a few independent studies. Here we introduce systematic form Reduced Complexity Model Intercomparison Project (RCMIP). We expect RCMIP will extend over phases, with Phase 1 being first. In 1, focus...
Abstract Committed warming describes how much future can be expected from historical emissions due to inertia in the climate system. It is usually defined terms of level above present for an abrupt halt emissions. Owing socioeconomic constraints, this situation unlikely, so we focus on committed present-day fossil fuel assets. Here show that if carbon-intensive infrastructure phased out at end its design lifetime 2018, there a 64% chance peak global mean temperature rise remains below 1.5...
Abstract. While the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) physical science reports usually assess a handful of future scenarios, Working Group III contribution climate mitigation to IPCC's Sixth Assessment Report (AR6 WGIII) assesses hundreds thousands emissions scenarios. A key task in WGIII is global mean temperature outcomes these scenarios consistent manner, given challenge that from different integrated assessment models (IAMs) come with sectoral and gas-to-gas coverage...
Abstract. This paper quantifies the pre-industrial (1850) to present-day (2014) effective radiative forcing (ERF) of anthropogenic emissions NOX, volatile organic compounds (VOCs; including CO), SO2, NH3, black carbon, and concentrations methane, N2O ozone-depleting halocarbons, using CMIP6 models. Concentration emission changes reactive species can cause multiple in composition radiatively active species: tropospheric ozone, stratospheric water vapour, secondary inorganic aerosol, methane....
Abstract The remaining carbon budget quantifies the future CO 2 emissions to limit global warming below a desired level. Carbon budgets are subject uncertainty in Transient Climate Response Cumulative Emissions (TCRE), as well non-CO climate influences. Here we estimate TCRE using observational constraints, and integrate geophysical socioeconomic uncertainties affecting distribution of budget. We median 0.44 °C 5–95% range 0.32–0.62 per 1000 GtCO emitted. Considering only uncertainties, our...
Abstract Changes in atmospheric composition, such as increasing greenhouse gases, cause an initial radiative imbalance to the climate system, quantified instantaneous forcing. This fundamental metric has not been directly observed globally and previous estimates have come from models. In part, this is because current space‐based instruments cannot distinguish forcing climate’s response. We apply kernels satellite observations disentangle these components find all‐sky increased 0.53 ± 0.11...