A5043557341- Cryospheric studies and observations
- Geophysics and Gravity Measurements
- Climate variability and models
- Arctic and Antarctic ice dynamics
- Geology and Paleoclimatology Research
- Climate change and permafrost
- Oceanographic and Atmospheric Processes
- Winter Sports Injuries and Performance
- Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
- Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics
- Landslides and related hazards
- Polar Research and Ecology
- Flood Risk Assessment and Management
- Scientific Research and Discoveries
- Climate Change and Geoengineering
- Dark Matter and Cosmic Phenomena
- Methane Hydrates and Related Phenomena
- Geomagnetism and Paleomagnetism Studies
- Particle physics theoretical and experimental studies
- Distributed and Parallel Computing Systems
- Scientific Computing and Data Management
- Risk and Safety Analysis
- Infrastructure Resilience and Vulnerability Analysis
- High-Energy Particle Collisions Research
- Climate Change Communication and Perception
King's College - North Carolina
2021-2025
King's College London
2018-2024
Imperial College London
2024
King's College Hospital
2024
Appalachian State University
2022
University of Leeds
2022
Loughborough University
2022
The Open University
2015-2018
Institute of Geography of the Slovak Academy of Sciences
2017
University of Bristol
2007-2015
Abstract. The Greenland ice sheet is one of the largest contributors to global mean sea-level rise today and expected continue lose mass as Arctic continues warm. two predominant loss mechanisms are increased surface meltwater run-off associated with retreat marine-terminating outlet glaciers. In this paper we use a large ensemble models forced by output from representative subset Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) climate project changes contributions over 21st century....
Warming of the Antarctic Peninsula in latter half 20th century was greater than any other terrestrial environment Southern Hemisphere, and obvious cryospheric biological consequences have been observed. Under a global 1.5°C scenario, warming is likely increase number days above 0°C, with up to 130 such each year northern Peninsula. Ocean turbulence will increase, making circumpolar deep water (CDW) both warmer shallower, delivering heat sea surface coastal margins. Thinning recession marine...
Abstract Projections of the sea level contribution from Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets (GrIS AIS) rely on atmospheric oceanic drivers obtained climate models. The Earth System Models participating in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) generally project greater future warming compared with previous 5 (CMIP5) effort. Here we use four CMIP6 models a selection CMIP5 to force multiple sheet as part Ice Sheet for (ISMIP6). We find that projected at 2100 model ensemble under...
Abstract. Future sea-level rise projections are characterized by both quantifiable uncertainty and unquantifiable structural uncertainty. Thorough scientific assessment of requires analysis dimensions Probabilistic evaluate the dimension uncertainty; comparison alternative probabilistic methods provides an indication Here we describe Framework for Assessing Changes To Sea-level (FACTS), a modular platform characterizing different probability distributions drivers change their consequences...
Abstract Physically based projections of the Greenland ice sheet contribution to future sea-level change are subject uncertainties atmospheric and oceanic climatic forcing formulations within flow model itself. Here a higher-order, three-dimensional thermomechanical is used, initialized present-day geometry. The comes from high-resolution regional climate flowline applied four individual marine-terminated glaciers, results subsequently extended entire sheet. experiments span next 200 years...
Abstract. We use the BISICLES adaptive mesh ice sheet model to carry out one, two, and three century simulations of fast-flowing streams West Antarctic Ice Sheet, deploying sub-kilometer resolution around grounding line since coarser results in substantial underestimation response. Each begins with a geometry velocity close present-day observations, evolves according variation meteoric accumulation rates oceanic shelf melt rates. Future changes range from no change, through anomalies...
We assess the effect of enhanced basal sliding on flow and mass budget Greenland ice sheet, using a newly developed parameterization relation between meltwater runoff flow. A wide range observations suggest that water generated by melt at surface sheet reaches its bed both fracture drainage through moulins. Once bed, this is likely to affect lubrication, although current are insufficient determine whether changes in subglacial hydraulics will limit potential for speedup An uncertainty...
Abstract. Earlier large-scale Greenland ice sheet sea-level projections (e.g. those run during the ice2sea and SeaRISE initiatives) have shown that initial conditions a large effect on give rise to important uncertainties. The goal of this initMIP-Greenland intercomparison exercise is compare, evaluate, improve initialisation techniques used in modelling community estimate associated uncertainties modelled mass changes. first series model activities within ISMIP6 (the Ice Sheet Model...
Abstract. Four high-resolution regional climate models (RCMs) have been set up for the area of Greenland, with aim providing future projections Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance (SMB), and its contribution to sea level rise, greater accuracy than is possible from coarser-resolution general circulation (GCMs). This first time an intercomparison has carried out RCM results SMB. Output simulations recent past four RCMs evaluated against available observations. The evaluation highlights...
Abstract. We apply a new parameterisation of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) feedback between surface mass balance (SMB: sum accumulation and ablation) elevation in MAR regional climate model (Edwards et al., 2014) to projections future change using five models (ISMs). The (Modèle Atmosphérique Régional: Fettweis, 2007) are for 2000–2199, forced by ECHAM5 HadCM3 global (GCMs) under SRES A1B emissions scenario. additional sea level contribution due SMB–elevation averaged over ISM three is 4.3%...
Abstract Ice mass loss from the Amundsen Sea Embayment ice streams in West Antarctica is a major source of uncertainty projections future sea level rise. Physically based flow models rely on number parameters that represent unobservable quantities and processes, accounting for these can lead to wide range dynamic responses. Here we perform Bayesian calibration perturbed parameter ensemble, which score each ensemble member its ability match magnitude broad spatial pattern present‐day...
Coastal areas are highly diverse, ecologically rich, regions of key socio-economic activity, and particularly sensitive to sea-level change. Over most the 20th century, global mean sea level has risen mainly due warming subsequent expansion upper ocean layers as well melting glaciers ice caps. last three decades, increased mass loss Greenland Antarctic sheets also started contribute significantly contemporary rise. The future two sheets, which combined represent a rise potential ∼65 m,...
Abstract Sea-level science has seen many recent developments in observations and modelling of the different contributions total mean sea-level change. In this overview, we discuss (1) evolution Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projections, (2) how projections compare to (3) outlook for further improving projections. We start by discussing model 21st century change have changed from IPCC AR5 report (2013) SROCC (2019) AR6 (2021), highlighting similarities differences...
Abstract. Future sea-level rise projections are characterized by both quantifiable uncertainty and unquantifiable, structural uncertainty. Thorough scientific assessment of requires analysis dimensions Probabilistic evaluate the dimension uncertainty; comparison alternative probabilistic methods provide an indication Here we describe Framework for Assessing Changes To Sea-level (FACTS), a modular platform characterizing probability distributions global mean, regional, extreme rise. We...
Abstract. We use an observationally calibrated ice-sheet model to investigate the future trajectory of Antarctic ice sheet related uncertainties in balance between sub-shelf melting and discharge, on one hand, surface mass balance, other. Our ensemble simulations, forced by a panel climate models from sixth phase Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), suggests that ocean will be primary driver short-term loss, initiating loss West Antarctica already during this century. The...
Abstract Climate model ensembles are widely heralded for their potential to quantify uncertainties and generate probabilistic climate projections. However, such technical improvements modeling science will do little deliver on ultimate promise of improving policymaking adaptation unless the insights they can be effectively communicated decision makers. While some these communicative challenges unique ensembles, others common hydrometeorological more generally, tensions arising between...