A5041541652- Geophysics and Gravity Measurements
- Climate variability and models
- Oceanographic and Atmospheric Processes
- Cryospheric studies and observations
- Coastal and Marine Dynamics
- Arctic and Antarctic ice dynamics
- Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research
- Coastal and Marine Management
- Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
- Flood Risk Assessment and Management
- Coastal wetland ecosystem dynamics
- Geology and Paleoclimatology Research
- Reservoir Engineering and Simulation Methods
- Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics
- Climate Change Policy and Economics
- demographic modeling and climate adaptation
- Hydrology and Watershed Management Studies
- Fire effects on ecosystems
- Groundwater and Isotope Geochemistry
- Aquatic and Environmental Studies
- Scientific Research and Discoveries
- Climate Change, Adaptation, Migration
- Global Energy and Sustainability Research
- Geochemistry and Geologic Mapping
- Lightning and Electromagnetic Phenomena
Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research
2017-2025
Utrecht University
2016-2025
Tyndall Centre
2023
University of East Anglia
2023
Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation
2016-2019
Health Sciences and Nutrition
2016-2017
CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere
2013-2016
Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute
2009
The Summary for Policymakers (SPM) of the Synthesis Report (SYR) Sixth Assessment (AR6) Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), is a component SYR which provides policy-relevant but policy-neutral summary SYR. It consistent with Sections and approved line by Governments at plenary session Change.
Abstract One of the main consequences mean sea level rise (SLR) on human settlements is an increase in flood risk due to intensity and frequency extreme levels (ESL). While substantial research efforts are directed towards quantifying projections uncertainties future global regional SLR, corresponding contemporary ESL have not been assessed limited. Here we quantify, for first time at scale, present-day estimates, which by default ignored broad-scale sea-level impact assessments date. exceed...
ABSTRACT Global-scale 21st-century glacier mass change projections from six published global models are systematically compared as part of the Glacier Model Intercomparison Project. In total 214 annual and area forced by 25 General Circulation Models (GCMs) four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) emission scenarios aggregated into 19 regions considered. Global loss all glaciers (outside Antarctic Greenland ice sheets) 2100 relative to 2015 averaged over model runs varies 18 ± 7%...
Sea-level change is often considered to be globally uniform in sea-level projections. However, local relative (RSL) can deviate substantially from the global mean. Here, we present maps of twenty-first century RSL estimates based on an ensemble coupled climate model simulations for three emission scenarios. In Intergovernmental Panel Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4), same were used their projections mean rise. The contribution small glaciers and ice caps calculated with a...
Abstract. Future sea-level rise projections are characterized by both quantifiable uncertainty and unquantifiable structural uncertainty. Thorough scientific assessment of requires analysis dimensions Probabilistic evaluate the dimension uncertainty; comparison alternative probabilistic methods provides an indication Here we describe Framework for Assessing Changes To Sea-level (FACTS), a modular platform characterizing different probability distributions drivers change their consequences...
For many climate change impacts such as drought and heat waves, global national frameworks for services are providing ever more critical support to adaptation activities. Coastal zones especially in need of adaptation, they increasingly threatened by sea level rise its impacts, submergence, flooding, shoreline erosion, salinization wetland change. In this paper, we examine how annual multi-decadal projections can be used within coastal (CCS). To end, review the current state-of-the art US,...
Abstract We present a new set of global and local sea‐level projections at example tide gauge locations under the RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5 emissions scenarios. Compared to CMIP5‐based presented in IPCC AR5, we introduce number methodological innovations, including (i) more comprehensive treatment uncertainties, (ii) direct traceability between projections, (iii) exploratory extended 2300 based on emulation individual CMIP5 models. Combining with observed records, explore contribution total...
Abstract The release of new and updated sea‐level rise (SLR) information, such as from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Assessment Reports, needs to be better anticipated in coastal risk adaptation assessments. This requires assessments regularly reviewed needed, reflecting information but retaining useful earlier In this paper, guidance types SLR available is presented, including for extremes. An intercomparison evolution headline projected ranges across all IPCC reports...
Abstract The effective climate sensitivity (EffCS) of models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) has increased relative to CMIP5. We explore implications this for global mean sea‐level (GMSL) change projections 2100 three emissions scenarios. CMIP6 surface air temperature are substantially higher than CMIP5, but thermal expansion not. Using these as input construct GMSL with IPCC AR5 methods, 95th percentile at only increases by 3–7 cm. Projected rates rise around increase...
Abstract Changes in ocean properties and circulation lead to a spatially non-uniform pattern of dynamic sea-level change (DSLC). The projections sea level presented the IPCC AR5 were constructed with global climate models (GCMs) from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5). Since CMIP5 GCMs have relatively coarse resolution exclude tides surges it is unclear whether they are suitable for providing DSLC shallow coastal regions such as Northwestern European Shelf (NWES). One approach...
To date, projections of human migration induced by sea-level change (SLC) largely suggest large-scale displacement away from vulnerable coastlines. However, results our model Bangladesh counterintuitively that people will continue to migrate toward the coastline irrespective flooding amplified future SLC under all emissions scenarios until end this century. We developed an empirically calibrated agent-based household decision-making captures multi-faceted push, pull and mooring influences on...
Coastal areas are highly diverse, ecologically rich, regions of key socio-economic activity, and particularly sensitive to sea-level change. Over most the 20th century, global mean sea level has risen mainly due warming subsequent expansion upper ocean layers as well melting glaciers ice caps. last three decades, increased mass loss Greenland Antarctic sheets also started contribute significantly contemporary rise. The future two sheets, which combined represent a rise potential ∼65 m,...
Abstract Sea-level science has seen many recent developments in observations and modelling of the different contributions total mean sea-level change. In this overview, we discuss (1) evolution Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projections, (2) how projections compare to (3) outlook for further improving projections. We start by discussing model 21st century change have changed from IPCC AR5 report (2013) SROCC (2019) AR6 (2021), highlighting similarities differences...
Abstract Projections of relative sea level change (RSLC) are commonly reported at an annual mean basis. The seasonality RSLC is often not considered, even though it may modulate the impacts RSLC. Here, we study seasonal differences in twenty-first-century ocean dynamic (DSLC; 2081–2100 minus 1995–2014) on Northwestern European Shelf (NWES) and their drivers, using ensemble 33 CMIP6 models complemented with experiments performed a regional model. For high-end emissions scenario SSP5–8.5, find...
Sea-level change is one of the most concerning climate and global warming consequences, especially impacting coastal societies environments. The spatial temporal variability sea level neither linear nor globally uniform, in semi-enclosed basins such as Mediterranean Sea, which considered a hot spot regarding expected impacts related to change. This study investigates sea-level trends their over Sea from 1993 2019. We use gridded anomaly products satellite altimetry for total observed level,...