A5024426315- Climate variability and models
- Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
- Flood Risk Assessment and Management
- Hydrology and Drought Analysis
- Climate Change and Health Impacts
- Climate change impacts on agriculture
- Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics
- Climate Change Policy and Economics
- Plant Water Relations and Carbon Dynamics
- Disaster Management and Resilience
- Climate Change Communication and Perception
- Climate Change, Adaptation, Migration
- Environmental law and policy
- Climate Change and Geoengineering
- Risk Perception and Management
- Sustainability and Climate Change Governance
- Cryospheric studies and observations
- Hydrology and Watershed Management Studies
- Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research
- Climate change and permafrost
- Fire effects on ecosystems
- Precipitation Measurement and Analysis
- Global Energy and Sustainability Research
- Horticultural and Viticultural Research
- Tree-ring climate responses
Imperial College London
2021-2024
The Honourable Society of Lincoln's Inn
2024
University of Oxford
2014-2023
Leipzig University
2023
Climate Central
2023
Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute
2019-2022
Met Office
2022
University of Cape Town
2020
Climate Centre
2020
South African Tuberculosis Vaccine Initiative
2020
The Summary for Policymakers (SPM) of the Synthesis Report (SYR) Sixth Assessment (AR6) Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), is a component SYR which provides policy-relevant but policy-neutral summary SYR. It consistent with Sections and approved line by Governments at plenary session Change.
Real-world experience underscores the complexity of interactions among multiple drivers climate change risk and how risks compound or cascade. However, a holistic framework for assessing such complex has not yet been achieved. Clarity is needed regarding that generate risk, including role adaptation mitigation responses. In this perspective, we present three categories increasingly focus on as well risks. A significant innovation recognizing can arise both from potential impacts due to...
In the summer 2010 Western Russia was hit by an extraordinary heat wave, with region experiencing far warmest July since records began. Whether and to what extent this event is attributable anthropogenic climate change controversial. Dole et al. (2011) report Russian wave “mainly natural in origin” whereas Rahmstorf Coumou write that a probability of 80% “the record would not have occurred” without large‐scale warming 1980, most which has been attributed increase greenhouse gas...
During August 25–30, 2017, Hurricane Harvey stalled over Texas and caused extreme precipitation, particularly Houston the surrounding area on 26–28. This resulted in extensive flooding with 80 fatalities large economic costs. It was an extremely rare event: return period of highest observed three-day precipitation amount, 1043.4 mm 3dy−1 at Baytown, is more than 9000 years (97.5% one-sided confidence interval) periods exceeded 1000 yr (750 3dy−1) a current climate. Observations since 1880...
Abstract. Disastrous bushfires during the last months of 2019 and January 2020 affected Australia, raising question to what extent risk these fires was exacerbated by anthropogenic climate change. To answer for southeastern where were particularly severe, affecting people ecosystems, we use a physically based index fire weather, Fire Weather Index; long-term observations heat drought; 11 large ensembles state-of-the-art models. We find trends in Index fifth-generation European Centre...
Abstract Extreme event attribution aims to elucidate the link between global climate change, extreme weather events, and harms experienced on ground by people, property, nature. It therefore allows disentangling of different drivers from human-induced change hence provides valuable information adapt assess loss damage. However, providing such assessments systematically is currently out reach. This due limitations in science, including capacity for studying types as well geographical...
Attribution of extreme events is a challenging science and one that currently undergoing considerable evolution. In this paper are 19 analyses by 18 different research groups, often using quite methodologies, 12 occurred in 2012. addition to investigating the causes these events, multiple four high temperatures United States, record low levels Arctic sea ice, heavy rain northern Europe eastern Australia, provide an opportunity compare contrast strengths weaknesses various methodologies. The...
We propose a simple real-time index of global human-induced warming and assess its robustness to uncertainties in climate forcing short-term fluctuations. This provides improved scientific context for temperature stabilisation targets has the potential decrease volatility policy. quantify arising from observations, radiative forcings, internal variability model response. Our associated rate is compatible with range other more sophisticated methods estimate human contribution observed change.
Abstract. Towards the end of June 2021, temperature records were broken by several degrees Celsius in cities Pacific Northwest areas US and Canada, leading to spikes sudden deaths sharp increases emergency calls hospital visits for heat-related illnesses. Here we present a multi-model, multi-method attribution analysis investigate extent which human-induced climate change has influenced probability intensity extreme heat waves this region. Based on observations, modelling classical...
Two extreme heatwaves hit Western Europe in the summer of 2019, with historical records broken by more than a degree many locations, and significant societal impacts, including excess mortality several thousand people. The extent to which human influence has played role occurrence these events been large interest scientists, media decision makers. However, outstanding nature poses challenges for physical statistical modeling. Using an unprecedented number climate model ensembles value...
Abstract. Over the last few years, methods have been developed to answer questions on effect of global warming recent extreme events. Many “event attribution” studies now performed, a sizeable fraction even within weeks event, increase usefulness results. In doing these analyses, it has become apparent that attribution itself is only one step an extended process leads from observation event successfully communicated statement. this paper we detail protocol was by World Weather Attribution...
The last few years have seen an explosion of interest in extreme event attribution, the science estimating influence human activities or other factors on probability and characteristics observed weather climate event. This is driven by public interest, but also has practical applications decision-making after for raising awareness current future change impacts. World Weather Attribution (WWA) collaboration over 5 developed a methodology to answer these questions scientifically rigorous way...
Demonstrating the effect that climate change is having on regional weather a subject which occupies scientists, government policy makers and media. After an extreme event occurs, question often posed, ‘Was caused by anthropogenic change?’ Recently, new branch of science (known as attribution) has sought to quantify how much risk events occurring increased or decreased due change. One method attribution uses very large ensembles models computed via volunteer distributed computing. A recent...
In the period 2015–2017, Western Cape region has suffered from three consecutive years of below average rainfall—leading to a prolonged drought and acute water shortages, most prominently in city Town. After testing that precipitation deficit is primary driver behind reduced surface availability, we undertake multi-method attribution analysis for meteorological drought, defined terms 3 running mean averaged over area. The exact estimate return time event sensitive number stations whose data...
Within the past decade, attribution of extreme weather and climate events has emerged from a theoretical possibility into subfield science in its own right, providing scientific evidence on role anthropogenic change individual events, regular basis using range approaches. Different approaches thus different framings question lead to very assessments human-induced change. Although there is no right or wrong approach, community currently debating about appropriate methodologies for addressing...
Disasters occur when hazards meet vulnerability. We must acknowledge the human-made components of both vulnerability and hazard emphasize human agency in order to proactively reduce disaster impacts.
Over the first half of 2020, Siberia experienced warmest period from January to June since records began and on 20th weather station at Verkhoyansk reported 38 °C, highest daily maximum temperature recorded north Arctic Circle. We present a multi-model, multi-method analysis how anthropogenic climate change affected probability these events occurring using both observational datasets large collection models, including state-of-the-art higher-resolution simulations designed for attribution...