A5036656215- Climate variability and models
- Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
- Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics
- Plant Water Relations and Carbon Dynamics
- Climate Change and Health Impacts
- Climate change and permafrost
- Hydrology and Drought Analysis
- Horticultural and Viticultural Research
- Species Distribution and Climate Change
- Plant Physiology and Cultivation Studies
- Arctic and Antarctic ice dynamics
- Climate Change Policy and Economics
- Cryospheric studies and observations
- Data Analysis with R
- Simulation Techniques and Applications
- Ecosystem dynamics and resilience
- Statistical Methods and Bayesian Inference
- Soil Geostatistics and Mapping
- Methane Hydrates and Related Phenomena
- Tree-ring climate responses
- demographic modeling and climate adaptation
- Science and Climate Studies
- Erythrocyte Function and Pathophysiology
- Marine and coastal ecosystems
- Reservoir Engineering and Simulation Methods
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement
2017-2025
Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines
2018-2025
Commissariat à l'Énergie Atomique et aux Énergies Alternatives
2017-2025
Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique
2018-2025
CEA Paris-Saclay
2017-2024
Université Paris-Saclay
2018-2024
Impact
2023-2024
Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace
2024
Météo-France
2020-2023
DGA Techniques aérospatiales
2022
Two extreme heatwaves hit Western Europe in the summer of 2019, with historical records broken by more than a degree many locations, and significant societal impacts, including excess mortality several thousand people. The extent to which human influence has played role occurrence these events been large interest scientists, media decision makers. However, outstanding nature poses challenges for physical statistical modeling. Using an unprecedented number climate model ensembles value...
Abstract. Climate models are the major tools to study climate system and its evolutions in future. However, simulations often present statistical biases have be corrected against observations before being used impact assessments. Several bias correction (BC) methods therefore been developed literature over last 2 decades, order adjust according historical records obtain projections with appropriate attributes. Most of existing popular BC univariate, i.e., correcting one physical variable...
Over the first half of 2020, Siberia experienced warmest period from January to June since records began and on 20th weather station at Verkhoyansk reported 38 °C, highest daily maximum temperature recorded north Arctic Circle. We present a multi-model, multi-method analysis how anthropogenic climate change affected probability these events occurring using both observational datasets large collection models, including state-of-the-art higher-resolution simulations designed for attribution...
© 2020 American Meteorological Society. For information regarding reuse of this content and general copyright information, consult the AMS Copyright Policy (www.ametsoc.org/PUBSReuseLicenses).CORRESPONDING AUTHOR: Pascal You, pascal.yiou@lsce.ipsl.frA supplement to article is available online (10.1175/BAMS-D-19-0170.2)
Abstract. Bias correction methods are used to calibrate climate model outputs with respect observational records. The goal is ensure that statistical features (such as means and variances) of simulations coherent observations. In this article, a multivariate stochastic bias method developed based on optimal transport. usually defined transfer functions between random variables. We show such induce joint probability distribution the biased variable its correction. transport theory allows us...
Abstract It is of fundamental importance to evaluate the ability climate models capture large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns and, in context a rapidly increasing greenhouse forcing, robustness changes simulated these over time. Here we approach this problem from an innovative point view based on dynamical systems theory. We characterize North Atlantic CMIP5 historical simulations (1851–2000) terms two instantaneous metrics: local dimension attractor and stability phase-space...
Abstract. In early April 2021 several days of harsh frost affected central Europe. This led to very severe damage in grapevine and fruit trees France, regions where young leaves had already unfolded due unusually warm temperatures the preceding month (March 2021). We analysed with observations 172 climate model simulations how human-induced change this event over many vineyards are located. found that, without human-caused change, such or later spring would have been even lower by 1.2 ∘C...
Abstract As the climate warms, cold waves are expected to become less intense and frequent. Is there still a risk of reliving events comparable most spells we can remember? We analyze four remarkable that have occurred since 2010 in different regions: Western Europe, Texas, China, Brazil. show all these recent moderate high probability not happening again by 2100 – typically 50% 90% an intermediate emissions scenario, depending on event. The probabilities even higher for iconic 20th century...
As the climate warms, cold waves are expected to become less intense and frequent. Is there still a risk of reliving events comparable most spells we can remember? We analyze four remarkable that have occurred since 2010 in different regions: Western Europe, Texas, China, Brazil. show all these recent moderate high probability not happening again by 2100 – typically 50% 90% an intermediate emissions scenario, depending on event. The probabilities even higher for iconic 20th century...
Abstract. We develop an extension of the statistical approach by Ribes et al. (2020), which was designed for Gaussian variables, generalized extreme value (GEV) distributions. fit nonstationary GEV distributions to extremely hot temperatures from ensemble Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP) models. In order select a common model, we discuss parameters have be and do not. Our tests suggest that location scale should considered nonstationary. Then, multimodel distribution is...
Abstract. The climate system can been described by a dynamical and its associated attractor. dynamics of this attractor depends on the external forcings that influence climate. Such affect mean values or variances, but regions are seldom visited also be affected. It is an important challenge to measure how responds different forcings. Currently, Euclidean distance similar measures like Mahalanobis have favored discrepancies between two climatic situations. Those distances do not natural...
Abstract. In early April 2021 several days of harsh frost affected central Europe. This led to very severe damages in grapevine and fruit trees France, regions where young leaves had already unfolded due unusually warm temperatures the preceding month (march 2021. We analysed with observations 172 climate model simulations how human-induced change this event over many vineyards are located. found that, without human-caused change, such or later spring would have been even lower by 1.2 °C...
Abstract. Climate models are the major tools to estimate climate variables evolutions in future. However, simulations often present statistical biases and have be corrected against observations before being used impact assessments. Several bias correction (BC) methods therefore been developed literature over last two decades, order adjust according historical records obtain projections with appropriate attributes. Most of existing popular BC univariate, i.e., correcting one physical variable...
Abstract The Summer Olympic Games in 2024 will take place during the apex of temperature seasonal cycle Paris Area. mid-latitudes Northern hemisphere have witnessed a few intense heatwaves since 2003 event. Those had environmental and health impacts, which often came as surprises. In this paper, we search for most extreme Ile-de-France that are physically plausible, under climate change scenarios, decades around 2024. We circumvent sampling limitation by applying rare event algorithm on...
Abstract. Bias correction and statistical downscaling are now regularly applied to climate simulations make then more usable for impact models studies. Over the last few years, various methods were developed account multivariate – inter-site or inter-variable properties in addition usual univariate ones. Among such methods, temporal either neglected specifically accounted for, i.e. differently from other properties. In this study, we propose a new approach called “time-shifted bias...
Abstract. The climate system can been described by a dynamical and its associated attractor. dynamics of this attractor depends on the external forcings that influence climate. Such affect mean values or variances, but regions are seldom visited also be affected. It is an important challenge to measure how responds different forcings. Currently, Euclidean distance similar measures like Mahalanobis have favoured discrepancies between two climatic situations. Those distances do not natural...
Abstract. Bias correction and statistical downscaling are now regularly applied to climate simulations make then more usable for impact models studies. Over the last few years, various methods were developed account multivariate – inter-site or inter-variable properties in addition usual univariate ones. Among such methods, temporal either neglected specifically accounted for, i.e., differently from other properties. In this study, we propose a new approach called “Time Shifted Multivariate...
Nous proposons dans cet article d'appliquer une méthode d'attribution au changement climatique, pour la canicule de juillet 2019 sur France métropolitaine. décrivons d'abord comment l'attribution est effectuée. Ensuite, nous montrons qu'aujourd'hui le risque d'occurrence ce type a été multiplié par moins 10 et qu'en 2040 il sera 20. De plus, analysons à fin du siècle deux scénarios climatiques : meilleur des cas, reviendrons situation actuelle en 2100 ; un cas défavorable, canicules...
Abstract. Bias correction methods are used to calibrate climate model outputs with respect observational records. The goal is ensure that statistical features (such as means and variances) of simulations coherent observations. In this article, a multivariate stochastic bias method developed based on optimal transport. usually defined transfer functions between random variables. We show such induce joint probability distribution the biased variable its correction. transport theory allows us...
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