A5056263217- Climate variability and models
- Flood Risk Assessment and Management
- Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
- Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics
- Hydrology and Drought Analysis
- Arctic and Antarctic ice dynamics
- Climate change impacts on agriculture
- Hydrology and Watershed Management Studies
- Geological Studies and Exploration
- Landslides and related hazards
- Oceanographic and Atmospheric Processes
- Climate change and permafrost
Met Office
2021-2024
University of Bristol
2023-2024
Phillips Exeter Academy
2024
Over the first half of 2020, Siberia experienced warmest period from January to June since records began and on 20th weather station at Verkhoyansk reported 38 °C, highest daily maximum temperature recorded north Arctic Circle. We present a multi-model, multi-method analysis how anthropogenic climate change affected probability these events occurring using both observational datasets large collection models, including state-of-the-art higher-resolution simulations designed for attribution...
Abstract The Northwest European shelf experienced unprecedented surface temperature anomalies in June 2023 (anomalies up to 5 °C locally, north of Ireland). Here, we show the average underwent its longest recorded category II marine heatwave (16 days). With state-of-the-art observation and modelling capabilities, developed quickly due strong atmospheric forcing (high level sunshine, weak winds, tropical air) wave activity under anticyclonic weather regimes. Once formed, this shallow fed back...
The flooding in South Yorkshire the United Kingdom (UK) autumn 2019 saw one fatality, at least 500 properties flooded and 1 200 households evacuated. worst of occurred after very high 24-h rainfall totals up to 82 mm fell on already saturated ground. This followed region just two weeks earlier under 50 mm. In light anthropogenic climate change, it is expected that extreme events are set become more intense as a result increased global mean temperatures Clausius-Clapeyron relation. Here we...
Abstract Extreme wind is the main driver of loss in North-West Europe, with flooding being second-highest driver. These hazards are currently modelled independently, and it unclear what contribution their co-occurrence to loss. They often associated extra-tropical cyclones, studies focusing on extreme meteorological variables. However, there has not been a systematic assessment drivers co-occurring impacts compound wind-flood events. This study quantifies this using an established storm...
Abstract Research into weather circulation changes over the UK for future climate has mainly focused on in Summer and Winter seasons, with less analysis seasonality transition seasons. Using 30 Met Office patterns we examine influence of change through atmospheric using a number models. Changes are important as they can have large impacts many sectors including agriculture, energy tourism. This paper finds noticeable increase Autumn frequency drier summer-type regimes decrease stormy winter...
Abstract The breaking of the United Kingdom's daily rainfall record in October 2020 made a striking addition to list recent heavy precipitation events country. Mounting evidence from attribution research suggests that such extremes become more frequent and intense warming climate. Although most studies consider extreme specific months or seasons, here we investigate for first time how wettest day year may be influenced by anthropogenic forcings. Data large multimodel ensembles indicate...
Abstract Three out of the five highest daily winter rainfall totals on record over Northern England have occurred from 2015 onwards. Heavy events in winters 2013–2014, 2015–2016 and 2019–2020 led to more than 2.8‐billion‐pounds insurance losses flooding UK. Has frequency these been influenced by human‐induced climate change? Winter UK is extremely variable year‐to‐year, which makes attribution extremes particularly challenging. To tackle this problem, we introduce an UNprecedented Simulated...
Abstract The UK contribution to the Detection and Attribution Model Intercomparison Project (DAMIP), part of sixth phase Climate (CMIP6), is described. lower atmosphere ocean resolution configuration latest Hadley Centre global environmental model, HadGEM3‐GC3.1, used create simulations driven either with historical changes in anthropogenic well‐mixed greenhouse gases, aerosols, or natural climate factors. Global mean near‐surface air temperatures from HadGEM3‐GC31‐LL are consistent CMIP6...
Abstract Research into weather circulation changes over the UK for future climate has mainly focused on in Summer and Winter seasons, with less analysis seasonality transition seasons. Using 30 Met Office patterns we examine influence of change through atmospheric using a number models. Changes are important as they can have large impacts many sectors including agriculture, energy tourism. This paper finds noticeable increase Autumn frequency drier summer-type regimes decrease stormy winter...
In 2022 large parts of Pakistan suffered devastating flooding, with the southern provinces Balochistan and Sindh particularly badly impacted. These regions received record-breaking rainfall totals during August, following a very wet July over summer monsoon season. this attribution study we combine forecasting technique developed by Leach et al. 2021 flood inundation modelling to estimate influence anthropogenic climate change on floods. This combined storyline probabilistic approach uses...
<p>We investigate the attribution of flooding in Northern England that saw at least 500 homes flooded and over 1000 properties evacuated areas 2019. This occurred during wettest Autumn on record some also contained very high daily rainfall totals. In light climate change, it is expected intense events are to become more as a result increased global average temperatures Clausius-Clapeyron relationship, but here we quantitatively how much change has risk such an event...
The risk of flash flooding is likely to increase with the intensification short-duration rainfall extremes due Climate Change. Using latest convective-permitting resolution climate model data for UK and LISFLOOD-FP flood inundation model, we adopt a trend detection approach attribute impacts over city, Leeds. Our study based on an extreme event in August 2014, where 400 properties were flooded after 80mm fell five hours parts city. This research will be first attribution pluvial impacts,...